Morgan Stanley

• Hilsenrath: Fed Ushering in New Era of Uncertainty on Rates (WSJ)
• Is Supreme Court's chief justice ready to take down ObamaCare? (The Hill)
• Netanyahu arrives in U.S., signs of easing of tensions over Iran speech (Reuters)
• Nemtsov Murder Fuels Suspicion, Fails to Spur Russia Selloff (BBG)
• ECB uncomfortable with leading role in Greek funding drama (Reuters)
• Video shows Los Angeles police shooting homeless man dead (Reuters)
• Iraq Military Begins Campaign to Reclaim Tikrit (WSJ)
• How Billionaires in London Use Secret Luxury Homes to Hide Assets (BBG)

• Central Banks With Negative Rates Spur Question of How Low to Go (BBG)
• DHS to keep running: Congress edges toward domestic security funding patch (Reuters)
• Setbacks for Tsipras Stir Discord in Greek Ruling Party (BBG)
• Greece’s Challenge: Appeasing Its Creditors and Its Population (WSJ)
• Buffett, a cheerleader for America, takes his checkbook abroad (Reuters)
• Oil’s Big Swings Are the New Normal: Market has rarely been more volatile (WSJ)
• Ukraine Left Behind as Russian Stock Gains Are Unmatched (BBG)
• Brent rises to $61, set for first monthly gain since July (Reuters)

• Goldman Employees Reaped $2 Billion From 2008 Options Last Year (BBG)
• On Bush turf, Obama blames immigration woes on Republicans (Reuters)
• Tougher Internet rules to hit cable, telecoms companies (Reuters)
• Russia's Gazprom says can exempt rebel-held areas from Ukraine gas contract (Reuters)
• Allianz Says Pimco Seeing ‘Substantially’ Lower Outflows (BBG)
• Merkel Faces Stepped-Up Dissent on Greek Bailout in Party (BBG)
• SEC Probes Companies’ Treatment of Whistleblowers (WSJ)
• 2-Year Trek From Turf to Table Delays Cheaper U.S. Beef (BBG)
• Turkish jets violate Greek air space (Kathimerini)

Janet Yellen is very alarmed that some members of Congress want to conduct a comprehensive audit of the Federal Reserve for the first time since it was created. During testimony this week, she made “central bank independence” sound like it was the holy grail. Even though every other government function is debated politically in this country, Janet Yellen insists that what the Federal Reserve does is “too important” to be influenced by the American people. Does any other government agency ever dare to make that claim? If the Fed is doing everything correctly, why should Yellen be alarmed? What does she have to hide?

If you have been following the price of oil over the last few months, the chances are you’re a little confused. On the one hand you have the likes of A. Gary Shilling who, in this Bloomberg article, loudly trumpets the prospect of oil at $10/Barrel, and on the other there is T. Boone Pickens, who, at the end of last year was predicting a return to $100 within 12-18 months. Pickens prediction has moderated somewhat as WTI and Brent crude have continued to fall, but in January he was still saying that oil would return to $70 or $80/barrel in the near future. So, who is correct?

The problem, as several sources told Reuters last week, is that there simply aren’t a lot of willing sellers. Ironically, the ECB’s own policy maneuvers are ultimately responsible for creating this situation. That is, the fallout from previous forays into ultra accommodative monetary policy is now hampering the implementation of quantitative easing - call it the ultimate easy money paradox.

Thanks to global disinflationary pressures driven by the savings glut, an oil glut, and universally high (peak) debt levels (crushing the transmission mechanisms of textbook economists), central planners have gone full ease-tard in 2015. From a 'balanced' 10 easing, 9 tightening bias (~1:1) in December, Morgan Stanley illustrates in the following chart there are now 16 central banks easing and only 4 with a tightening bias (4:1) as it appears the one-trick pony brigade are trying moar of what didn't work the first, second, and last times in an effort to prove this time is different...

A literal Tour de Force, likely the most indepth, practical analysis of the Grexit situation as you will ever read. This is why I like blogging... You can never find stuff like this in the mainstream media.

• Greece requests euro zone loan extension, offers big concessions (Reuters)
• Germany Rejects Loan Request Saying Greece Must Meet Conditions (BBG)
• Did the Fed Just Enter the Currency Wars (BBG)
• French consumer prices fall for first time since 2009 (Reuters)
• Oil falls sharply after U.S. crude inventories rise (Reuters)
• High-Speed Firm Virtu Revives IPO Plans (WSJ)
• Fed Tiptoes Into Rate-Hike Debate (Hilsenrath)
• Rajoy’s Nemesis Is Back: Anti-Graft Editor Targets Vote (BBG)

With the world's oldest central bank - Sweden's Riksbank - taking the plunge into negative rates, there have been 19 'eases' by central banks this year, Morgan Stanley warns of "ghosts of the 1930s." With competitive 'easing' stoking fears of international currency wars, The Telegraph notes however that looser monetary policy is not the order of the day everywhere in the world, and herein lies potential danger for the world economy.

"...the current benefits to refiners will push some performance weakness into the summer, helping to dampen the impact of the drop in Crude Oil prices on business performance".

The bond market may have gotten so fragmented in recent months that even Bloomberg was amazed at how little trading volume it necessary to make a price impact, the amount of bond traders (and certainly salesmen), and certainly their bonuses, appeared to only go up. "Appeared" being the key word, however, because as Bloomberg reports, "the average number of dealers providing prices for European corporate bonds dropped to a low of 3.2 per trade last month, down from 8.8 in 2009, according to data compiled by Morgan Stanley."

"Our downgrade is about more than execution risk; we note: (1) The profound drop in fuel prices harms the competitiveness relative to internal combustion engine vehicles of TSLA’s planned Model 3 mass-market car, the potential for which we believe accounts for the majority of today’s equity value; and (2) Competition is mounting – automakers at the recent Detroit Auto Show debuted a number of electrified vehicles, some of which appear directly aimed at the Tesla Model S (e.g., Mercedes C-Class Plug-in Hybrid), the X (e.g., Audi Q7 e-Tron Plug-in Diesel Hybrid), and the 3 (e.g., Chevrolet Bolt) – see takeaways from our walking tour of the show. We reduce our estimates on flow-through of 4Q’s softer sales and margin trends, and guidance for higher operating costs: 1Q15 goes to -$0.31 from +$0.93 and FY15 to $1.89 from $4.12. Our December 2015 price targetd-declines to $175 from $180." -JPM

• 'Glimmer of hope' for Ukraine after deal at Minsk peace summit (Reuters)
• Ruble Rebounds, Russian Stocks Surge on Ukraine Cease-Fire Deal (BBG)
• Greek PM Tsipras in Brussels as clock ticks on EU bailout (Reuters)
• Emerging-Market Currencies Rout Not Over for Traders (BBG)
• Little noticed, new Saudi king shapes contours of power (Reuters)
• In Wake of Financial Crisis, Goldman Goes It Alone (WSJ)
• AmEx Is Losing Its Millionaires (BBG)
• Thousands to Lose Health Insurance Over Residency Questions (WSJ)

Are we on the verge of a major worldwide economic downturn? Well, if recent warnings from prominent bankers all over the world are to be believed, that may be precisely what we are facing in the months ahead.