Morgan Stanley

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Frontrunning: April 7





  • The counter-HFT-attack begins with first target - dark pools: Dark markets may be more harmful than high-frequency trading (Reuters)
  • Malaysia Jet Team Hears Pings Consistent With Black Box (BBG)
  • At Toyota as Humans Steal Jobs From Robots (BBG)
  • ‘Reverse Auctions’ Draw Scrutiny (NYT)
  • Death knell sounds for Brazil’s economic strategy (FT)
  • Technology Traders Head for the Exit as Put Trades Surge (BBG)
  • NSA Uses Corporate News to Spread Propaganda and Silence Dissent (TruthDig)
  • Holcim, Lafarge agree to merger to create cement giant (Reuters)
  • Any minute now: Investment Jump Seen From Macy’s to Berkshire After 2013 Fizzle (BBG)
  • India kicks off world's biggest election in remote northeast (Reuters)
 
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No BTFD In Overnight Yen Carry/Spoos Means Momo Confusion Continues





No Yen carry levitation overnight and, naturally, no Spoo levitation, with the futures struggling following the Nikkei's -1.7% drubbing (pushing it back to nearly -10% on the year) and down well from Friday's closing print. Risk averse sentiment following on from lower close on Wall Street on Friday, NASDAQ 100 (-2.7%) marked the worst session since 2011 dominated the price action in Asia, with JGBs up 32 ticks and the Nikkei 225 index (-1.7%). The Shanghai Composite was closed for a market holiday. Overall, stocks in Europe have recovered off lows but remain in negative territory (Eurostoxx50 -0.64%), with tech sector under performing in a continuation of sector weakness seen in the US and Asia, however Bunds remained under pressure as speculation of QE by ECB continued to undermine demand for core EU bonds. No major tier 1 releases scheduled for rest of the session, with focus likely turning to any policy related comments from ECB’s Weidmann, Constancio and Fed’s Bullard.

 
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Frontrunning: April 4





  • Nato chief defends eastern advance (FT)
  • Russia looks east as it seeks to rebalance trade interests (FT)
  • Plane from Guinea briefly quarantined in Paris after Ebola scare (AFP)
  • US attacks Japan’s stance on Trans-Pacific Partnership (FT)
  • Thank you IMF: Ukraine PM says will stick to austerity despite Moscow pressure (Reuters)
  • U.S. Army seeks motive for Fort Hood shooting rampage (Reuters)
  • China Slowdown Adds to Emerging-Market Growth Hurdles, IMF Says (BBG)
  • Top investors press Allianz to step up oversight of Pimco (Reuters)
  • U.S. to Evaluate Role in Mideast Peace Process, John Kerry Says (WSJ)
  • Scientists dismiss claims that Yellowstone volcano about to erupt (Reuters)
  • Ukraine detains 12 riot police on suspicion of 'mass murder' (Reuters) - on CIA orders?
 
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Frontrunning: April 3





  • Russia says expects answers on NATO troops in eastern Europe (Reuters)
  • Dealers say GM customer anxiety rising, sales may take hit (Reuters)
  • China Unveils Mini-Stimulus Measure (WSJ)
  • Londoners Priced Out of Housing Blame Foreigners (BBG)
  • New earthquake in Chile prompts tsunami alerts (Reuters)
  • Ukrainian Billionaire Charged by U.S. With Bribe Scheme (BBG)
  • Chinese Investments in U.S. Commercial Real Estate Surges (BBG)
  • Old Math Casts Doubt on Accuracy of Oil Reserve Estimates (BBG)
  • US secretly created 'Cuban Twitter' to stir unrest (AP)
 
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Frontrunning: April 2





  • Why did Yellen use criminals in her employment case studies? Hilsenrath explainz (Hilsenrath)
  • GM avoided defective switch redesign in 2005 to save a dollar each (Reuters)
  • Xuzhou Zhongsen Said to Avert Bond Default on Guarantor Aid  (BBG)
  • France's New Finance Minister Faces Fiscal Challenge (WSJ)
  • The magic is gone: Draghi’s Attempt to Talk Down Euro Lost on Traders (BBG)
  • Another John Kerry smashing success: U.S. Gambit on Mideast Peace Talks Falters (WSJ)
  • Combat-Ready China Military Seen as Xi’s Goal in Graft Battle (BBG)
  • Huge earthquake off Chile's north coast triggers tsunami (Reuters)
  • Pressure rises on Gross as investors pull $3.1 billion from Pimco's flagship fund (Reuters)
 
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SEC Has Opened Several HFT Probes





To think all it took to wake up not only the FBI (which generously provided a phone number to all interested parties so others could do its work for it) but the porn-addicts at the most corrupt, complicit and clueless, not to mention bought and paid for, "regulator" in US history, the SEC from a five year slumber - yes, we started warning about HFT in April of 2009 - was one Michael Lewis book. Moments ago we learned that the SEC, with a five year delay, has opened several investigations into HFT.

 
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12 Largest Banks Sued By Public Retirement Funds For "Conspiring To Rig Global FX Markets"





Yesterday, we read with some amusement that Goldman has moved Guy Saidenberg, reportedly one of the greater profit centers at the firm - and how could he not be when he always traded against Tom Stolper's recommendations which led to tens of thousands of pips in losses to those who listened to him over the past five years - from head of global foreign-exchange trading to a new role, as co-head of commodities.  Why did Goldman decide to scrap its once uber-profitable FX vertical and redo it from scratch? Simple - the ability to rig and manipulate FX markets, which are now under every global regulator's microscope after the "Cartel" members so foolishly let themselves be exposed to the entire world, is no longer there, as confirmed last night by news that a dozen large investors have filed a joint lawsuit against 12 banks for "allegedly conspiring to rig global foreign-exchange prices." Allegedly? Hasn't everyone read the Cartel chatroom transcripts yet?

 
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Read Michael Lewis' Flash Boys: A Wall Street Revolt: An Adaptation





The stock market really was rigged... “It’s 2009,” Katsuyama says. “This had been happening to me for almost two years. There’s no way I’m the first guy to have figured this out. So what happened to everyone else?” The question seemed to answer itself: Anyone who understood the problem was making money off it...

 
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Hollow Men, Hollow Markets, Hollow World





The question is not “Is it a Hollow World?”. If you’re reading Epsilon Theory I’m pretty sure that I don’t have to spend a lot of words convincing you of that fact. Nor is the question “How do we fix the Hollow World?”. Or at least that’s not my question. Sorry, but being a revolutionary is a young man’s game, and the pay is really bad. More seriously, I don’t think it’s possible to organize mass society in a non-hollow fashion without doing something about the “mass” part. So given that we are stuck in the world as it is, my question is “How do we adapt to a Hollow World?”. As Conrad wrote, the question is not how to get cured, but how to live. How do we make our way through the battlefield of modern economics and politics, a world that we know is hollow and false in so many important ways, without losing our minds and ending up in a metaphorical jungle muttering “the horror, the horror” to ourselves?

 
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Frontrunning: March 28





  • Crimea Resolution Backed by U.S. Barely Gets UN Majority (BBG)
  • Russian Buildup Stokes Worries (WSJ)
  • As reported here first: China’s Developers Face Shakeout as Easy Money Ends (BBG)
  • U.S. House Poised to Clear Sanctions Called Putin Warning (BBG)
  • Bitcoin Prices Plunge on Report PBOC Orders Accounts Shut (BBG)
  • Search for lost Malaysian jet shifts significantly after new lead (Reuters)
  • Russian fund taps China and Middle East (FT)
  • Long battle looms between U.S. college, athletes seeking to unionize (Reuters)
  • Official warns EU-US trade deal at risk over investor cases (FT)
  • New iPhone likely out in September, Nikkei daily says (AFP)
 
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Frontrunning: March 27





  • BOE to Sign Agreement With China on Yuan Clearing Next Week (BBG)
  • U.S. law firm plans to bring suit against Boeing, Malaysia Airlines (Reuters)
  • Citigroup Fraud Stings Mexico Star as Medina-Mora Chased (BBG)
  • Fraternity Chief Feared for Son as Hazings Spurred JPMorgan Snub (BBG)
  • UBS suspends six more forex traders (FT)
  • Goodbye CSCO Q1 EPS: China to strengthen Internet security after U.S. spying report (Reuters)
  • Good luck: Spain Banks With $55 Billion of Property Seek Deals (BBG)
  • Citic Pacific Said to Plan About $4 Billion Public Offering (BBG)
  • Yahoo Japan to buy eAccess from SoftBank for $3.2 billion (Reuters)
  • "Whatever it takes" to talk down the Euro: Euro, peripheral bond yields fall on ECB easing debate (Reuters)
 
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Another Morning Futures Pump - Will There Be A Fifth Consecutive Dump?





After tumbling overnight to just around 101.80, the USDJPY managed to stage a remarkable levitating comeback, rising all the way to 102.3, which in turn succeeded in closing the Nikkei 225 at the highs, up 1% after tumbling in early trade. The Shanghai Composite was not quite as lucky and as fear continue to weigh about a collapse in China's credit pipeline, the SHCOMP was down more than 0.8% while the PBOC withdreww even more net liquidity via repos than it did last week, at CNY 98 billion vs CNY 48 billion. That said, this morning will be the fifth consecutive overnight levitation in futures, which likely will once more surge right into the US market open to intraday highs, at which point slowy at first, then rapidly, fade again as the pattern has seemingly been set into algo random access memory. Which in a market devoid of human traders is all that matters.

 
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Frontrunning: March 25





  • Putin Threatened With More Sanctions as Russia Out of G-8 (BBG)
  • China Faces ‘Mini Crisis’ on Debt Defaults, Ex-PBOC Adviser Says (BBG)
  • Don't laugh too hard: Obama to propose ending NSA bulk collection of phone records (Reuters)
  • SEC Is Probing Dealings by Banks and Companies in Loan Securities (WSJ)
  • Japan GPIF asset review not aimed at supporting domestic stocks (Reuters)
  • Chinese families clash with police, slam Malaysia over lost plane (Reuters)
  • Russian Capital Flight Surges in First Quarter, Fueled by Ukraine Crisis (WSJ)
  • Democrats ditch Nate Silver after data whiz predicts dismal midterm outcome (DN)
  • China’s Urbanization Loses Momentum as Growth Slows (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: March 24





  • U.S. Small-Cap Rally Sends Valuation 26% Above 1990s  (BBG)
  • Russian troops seize Ukraine marine base in Crimea (Reuters)
  • Apple in Talks With Comcast About Streaming-TV Service (WSJ)
  • Top J.P. Morgan Executive in China to Leave Bank (WSJ)
  • Treasury's Lew to undergo treatment for enlarged prostate (Reuters)
  • Billionaire Sought by U.S. Holds Key to Putin Gas Cash  (BBG)
  • Israel closes embassies around the world as diplomats strike (Reuters)
  • Herbalife to Nominate Three More Icahn Candidates to Board (BBG)
  • Australian ship homes in on possible debris from Malaysia plane (Reuters)
  • California DMV Investigating Potential Credit Card Breach (WSJ)
 
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