Morgan Stanley

With the dominance of IT spend (whether consulting or outsourcing) in many of today's investment theses, Morgan Stanley's new forward-looking models should have more than a few long-only money managers rocking quietly in the corner of the office (especially given IBM's dominance of the Dow). Their proprietary models (discussed below) predict decelerating revenues in both consulting and outsourcing through Q2 2013 reflecting the weak discretionary spend environment. The inflection in outsourcing is particularly notable and is far from priced in with the velocity of the fall suggesting 2009-like cutbacks. After the last recession's drop, IT outsourcing was a key area of cost reduction that also provided additional revenues for a new sector; one has to wonder if the recovery this time would be so acute (since sooner rather than later the cutting of fat leads to lascerations in the muscle).

Back in the summer of 2010, when the SEC was still desperate to (laughably) scapegoat the May 6 Flash Crash on Waddell and Reed, in an attempt to telegraph to the public that it was in control of the HFT takeover of the stock market (an attempt which has since failed miserably as days in which there are no occult trading phenomena have become the outlier and have resulted in the wholesale dereliction of stock trading by retail investors), we first presented and endorsed the Nanex proposal that the flash crash was an "on demand" (either on purpose or by mistake) event, one which occurred as a result of massive quote stuffing which prevented regular way trading from occuring and resulting in a 1000 DJIA point plunge in minutes  (the audio track to which is still a must hear for anyone who harbor any doubt the market is "safe"). It turns out that in the nearly 3 years since that fateful market crash, not only has nothing been done to repair the market (ostensibly broken beyond repair and only another wholesale crash, this time without DKed trades, and bailed out banks, could possible do something to change the status quo) but the Denial of Service (DoS) attacks that HFT algos launch, for whatever reason, have become a daily occurrence as the following demonstrations from Nanex confirm beyond a shadow of a doubt.

European corporates continue to report considerably more negative surprises in production than expectations a mere three months ago - with the divide now at extreme levels. As Morgan Stanley notes though, there remains a 'hope' for green shoots in the euro area on the back of the ECB's OMT announcement and an apparently more robust China. Unfortunately, as these ywo simple charts indicate, the reality is that business surveys are pointing to a continued slide and that recent resilience is unlikely to last. In fact, in Morgan Stanley's view, incoming data and anecdotal evidence would suggest Q4 could be even worse than had been expected and the recessionary envionment will drag well into next year.

For millions of common people in New York and New Jersey, Sandy has been a historic disaster, with leaving ruined, homeless or forced to live in the dark and cold indefinitely. Sandy was a historic event for the Wall Streeters (a term used loosely as many of them reside in midtown or in Connecticut) among us too. And now, courtesy of Bloomberg's Max Abelson, we see how some of them managed to (just barely) scrape through...

It's not a good day for Citigroup tech analyst Mark Mahaney. Moments ago the WSJ reported that the former "star Internet analyst" was fired from Citi for disclosing non-public information about Facebook ahead of the IPO (surely he was the only Wall Street sellside who did this). To wit: "Mr. Mahaney, a top-ranked Internet analyst, was terminated Friday morning, according to a person familiar with the matter. The state also said the senior Citi analyst covering technology had given unpublished information about YouTube revenue estimates to a reporter for a French business magazine. "In an email to a Citi employee who questioned him on the communication, he responded 'this could get me in trouble. Shoot,'" the state said." Oh well: surely one of the hedge funds that did not invest in the FB IPO as a result of Mark's leaks will find him some mid-level analyst position as gratitude. Where it gets seriously ironic is when one looks back at Mark's career and stumbles upon this other WSJ pearl: "Mr. Mahaney, age 46, spent the original dot-com bubble of the late '90s at Morgan Stanley as MS -0.82% a junior analyst working with Mary Meeker, then a star Internet analyst. He then did a stint at hedge fund Galleon Group, whose founder was imprisoned after an insider-trading conviction. One person familiar with the matter says Mr. Mahaney was fired from Galleon for "not getting enough edge" on stocks." In other words, first Maheney was fired for not abusing inside information, then he is fired for... abusing inside information. If it is not too much to ask, could Mark's bosses please make up their minds already?

• Greece Faces Need for Additional Assistance: €30 billion (WSJ)
• Greeks fail to agree on bailout terms (FT)
• The report that got the NYT banned on the Chinese interweb: Billions in Hidden Riches for Family of Chinese Leader (NYT)
• Bo Xilai: China parliament expels disgraced politician (BBC)
• Japan Adds Stimulus Amid Threat of Bond-Sale Disruption... $9.4 billion (Bloomberg)
• Hubbard Said to Prefer Treasury Chief to Fed If Romney Wins (Bloomberg)
• 9 More Banks Subpoenaed Over Libor (WSJ)
• Romney raises $112m in 17 days (FT)
• Amid Cutbacks, Greek Doctors Offer Message to Poor: You Are Not Alone (NYT)... no, we are all broke
• Muni Downgrades Top 2011 Total on Weak Economy: Moody’s (Bloomberg)
• Ireland urges ECB to commit to bond-buying (FT)
• Cameron and Clegg unite in EU demands (FT)

Bloomberg reports that Chinese silver demand is set to climb nearly 10% next year as investors look to preserve their wealth. Although China as the 2nd largest world economy may be in an economic slump, investors are seeking out silver as a value alternative investment.  Silver climbed 15% this year and ETF’s holding silver have gained 6.5%. Research from Beijing Antaike said that 33% of the country’s demand comes from jewellery and coins, the rest for use in photography, solar panels electrical appliances.  “Many producers and investors have hoarded the precious metal in the form of ingots or unwrought silver.” After the US Fed’s QE1, (December 2008-March 2010) silver rocketed 53%, almost twice the jump as gold, and for QE2, (ending June 2011) silver rose 24%. Morgan Stanley predicts that silver will again return more than gold after QE3 was announced this September. Chinese national statistics show that jewellery sales rose 19.3% for the first eight months compared to last year.  “I’m bullish on silver, so I personally have stockpiled 3 tons of it at home,” Yang Guohui, president at Hunan Yishui Rare & Precious Metals Recycling Co., said in Xiamen on Oct. 17. Yishui is based in Yongxing County, Hunan province, where about 20 percent of China’s silver is from, according to Huang Xiaoming, head of the local precious metals management bureau.

• Moody’s Cuts Ratings on Catalonia, Four Other Spanish Regions (Bloomberg)
• And the market top: Billionaire Ross Interested in Buying Spanish Bank Assets (Bloomberg)
• Japan Jojima denies govt seeks $250 bln BOJ asset buying boost (Reuters)
• China hints at move to strengthen Communist rule (Reuters)... well everyone else is doing it
• Euro-Area Bailout Fund Faces Challenge at EU’s Highest Court (Bloomberg)
• Obama, Romney now tied in presidential race: Reuters/Ipsos poll (Reuters)
• Former China Leader Jiang Resurfaces Before Political Transition (Bloomberg)
• Some in Congress look to $55 billion fiscal cliff 'fallback' (Reuters)
• CLOs stage comeback in US (FT)
• TXU Teeters as Firms Reap $528 Million Fees (Bloomberg)
• China’s Factories Losing Pricing Power in Earnings Threat (Bloomberg)

With over a third of the S&P 500's market cap having reported, results have been mixed. Aggregate earnings are tracking ahead of expectations but this miracle is driven almost entirely by financials (which account for 85% of the beat) as lower expenses and higher reserve bleeds offset contracting NIMs (combined with a lack of MtM) to enable a total manufacturing of what S&P 500 EPS is. As Morgan Stanley's Adam Parker notes, the quality of the beats has been low, with companies benefiting from a mix of lower operating costs and lower taxes. Revenues are missing estimates (hurt by a stronger USD and macro weakness) and Tech has been particularly weak. More importantly, for all the hope-driven, recovery-is-around-the-corner, 'fiscal-cliff'-won't-happen believers, the majority of forward guidance has been negative resulting in the highest negative-to-positive ratio since 1Q07 but this is not priced in as top-down 4Q12 estimates have hardly budged.

• Dead Heat for Romney, Obama (WSJ)
• The Cheerful Billionaire Who Thinks Obama's a Socialist (Businessweek)
• "Get to work, Mr. Japanese Chairman": Japan Exports Tumble 10% as Maehara Presses BOJ to Ease (Bloomberg)
• Chinese Investors Fear Chill in Canada (WSJ)
• Rosneft Buys BP’s TNK-BP Stake for $26 Billion in Cash, Shares (Bloomberg)
• Hong Kong Defends Its Currency Peg for First Time Since 2009 (Bloomberg)
• Democrats threaten payroll tax cut consensus (FT)
• Spain's Rajoy gets mixed message in regional votes (Reuters)
• Merkel to warn UK on Europe budget veto (FT)
• Netanyahu says doesn't know of any U.S.-Iran talks (Reuters)... neither does Iran, so near certainty
• Der Kurrency Tsar: ECB’s Knot Backs Schaeuble Call for Stronger EU Budget Power (Bloomberg)
• Fannie Mae Limiting Loans Helps JPMorgan Mortgage Profits (Bloomberg)

• Debt Fuels a Dividend Boom - Firms Collect Payouts, and Investors Get Yield; 'Reminiscent of the Bubble Era' (WSJ)
• Black Monday Echoes With Computers Failing to Restore Confidence (BBG)
• Poll: Obama Leads in Wisconsin, Iowa (WSJ)
• Gold Imports by India Seen Climbing First Time in Six Quarters (BBG)
• Europe pushes ahead towards ECB bank supervision (Reuters)
• ... And fails: Summit fails to agree timetable for aid to failing lenders (FT)
• Toyota Prius Dominates California as State’s No. 1 Model (BBG)
• Italy raises €18bn in huge bond sale (FT)
• Diplomacy inbox fills up as U.N. awaits U.S. presidential vote (Reuters)
• Goldman braced for more revelations (FT)
• China power brokers agree preferred leadership team (Reuters)
• EU, Japan Warn Against New US Swaps Rules (WSJ)
• Why VaR is the most meaningless contraption ever: Morgan Stanley shows the ‘flaky’ side of model (FT)
• Made in France Trumps Consumer Choice in Hollande Jobs Quest (BBG)
• North Korea threatens South over propaganda balloons (Reuters)

• Germany will pay Greek aid (Spiegel)
• Spain Banks Face More Pain as Worst-Case Scenario Turns Real (Bloomberg)
• China’s Growth Continues to Slow (WSJ)
• Executives Lack Confidence in U.S. Competitiveness (WSJ)
• Poor Market Conditions will See 180 Solar Manufacturers Fail by 2015 (OilPrice)
• Wen upbeat on China’s economy (FT)
• Gold remains popular, despite the doubts of economists (Economist)
• Armstrong Stands to Lose $30 Million as Sponsors Flee (Bloomberg)
• IMF urges aid for Italy, Spain but Rome baulking (Reuters)
• EU Summit Highlights Financial Divide (WSJ)
• FOMC Straying on Price Target, Former Fed Officials Say (Bloomberg)
• Putin defiant over weapons sales (FT)

Today Europe awakes to yet another Eurozone summit, one at which such topics as Greece, Spain, the banking union project or a economic/budgetary union will have to gain further traction, if not resolution. In fact Greece could hardly wait and has already launched it latest 24 hour strike against austerity. The same Greece which demands a 2 year, €30 billion extension from Europe to comply with reform, a move which Europe has/has not agreed to as while the core have said yes to more time, all have refused to fund Greece with any more money. Alas the two are synonymous. As SocGen predicts unless there is some credible progress today, all the progress since the September ECB meeting, which has seen SPGB 10 Year yields decline from 690 bps to sub 550 bps, may simply drift away. And as everyone knows, there is never any progress at these meetings, except for lots of headlines, lots of promises (the Eurozone June summit's conclusions have yet to be implemented) and lots of bottom line profits by Belgian caterers. Elsewhere, Spain sold 3, 4 and 10 year bonds at declining yields on residual optimism from the pro forma bailed out country's paradoxical Investment Grade rating. In non-hopium based news, Spanish bad loans rose to a record 10.5% in August from 10.1% previously while the oldest bank in the world, Italy's Banka Monte dei Paschi was cut to junk status. All this is irrelevant though, as no negative news will ever matter again in a centrally-planned world. Finally the only real good news (at least until it is revised)came out of the UK, where retail sales posted a 0.4% increase on expectations of a 0.2% rise from -0.2%.

Just before Lehman, these people had exactly zero predictive capabilities.

We are currently experiencing a pre-election surge in all economic metrics; and then comes the hangover as can be confirmed by looking at hiring plans. Morgan Stanley's Business Conditions Index (a multi-factor real-time bottom-up economy tracker) has tumbled this month, giving back most of the very recent gains but it is the 'outlook for hiring' that is the most worrisome. Despite the stronger than expected employment report for October, both hiring indices fell to multi-year lows. The hiring index dropped 10 points to 44%, its lowest since December 2009, and the hiring plans index sunk 13 points to 44%, lowest since August 2009.  Due to its leading indicator nature, this means that imminent payrolls may not stop rising; but in a few short months will post the first sequential decline since 2010. What this means for the unemployment rate is self-explanatory - but by then the election will be decided.