Morgan Stanley

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US Celebrates, The World Levitates





The US and UK markets may be closed for holiday today but that doesn't mean that US equity futures can't spin this weekend's resurrection of anti-EU sentiment in Europe, coupled with the just confirmed  resumption of the "anti-terrorist" operation in Ukraine (more on that shortly) following its anticlimatic presidential elections in a positive light. They can and they have, and even though the USDJPY low volume ramp is oddly missing overnight, and 10 Years appear bid, spoos are set for another record high, and are already trading up 0.2% at 1901.3, above 1900 for the first time ever. European shares remain higher with the autos and bank sectors outperforming and food & beverage, basic resources underperforming. The Italian and German markets are the best-performing larger bourses. The euro is little changed against the dollar. Greek 10yr bond yields fall; Italian yields decline.

 
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The (Other) Truth About The Financial Crisis: 10 "Geithner-Sized" Myths Exposed





After the crisis, many expected that the blameworthy would be punished or at the least be required to return their ill-gotten gains—but they weren’t, and they didn’t. Many thought that those who were injured would be made whole, but most weren’t. And many hoped that there would be a restoration of the financial safety rules to ensure that industry leaders could no longer gamble the equity of their firms to the point of ruin. This didn’t happen, but it’s not too late. It is useful, then, to identify the persistent myths about the causes of the financial crisis and the resulting Dodd-Frank reform legislation and related implementation...."Plenty of people saw it coming, and said so. The problem wasn’t seeing, it was listening."

 
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Frontrunning: May 22





  • McDonald’s Workers Arrested at Protest Near Headquarters (BBG)
  • U.S. Sends Troops to Chad to Hunt for Abducted Nigeria Girls (BBG)
  • BofA Scrapping Market-Making Unit Amid Trading Scrutiny (BBG)
  • Biggest attack in years kills 31 in China's troubled Xinjiang (Reuters)
  • Intense Fighting Flares in Eastern Ukraine (WSJ)
  • Fed Officials Tussle Over Labor Market Slack (Hilsenrath)
  • Ikea Economics Lure Central Bankers Seeking New Tools (BBG)
  • When Putin ordered up new hospitals, his associates botched the operation (Reuters)
  • Norway’s $33 Billion Man Steps Up Search in Asia Real Estate Bet (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: May 20





  • "May?" New Cold War May Emerge in Ukraine Crisis, Medvedev Says (BBG)
  • Wristslaps will be fast and furious: EU Commission charges HSBC, JPMorgan, Credit Agricole with rigging (Reuters)
  • Credit Suisse Rises as U.S. Guilty Plea Ends 3-Year Probe (BBG)
  • After Martial Law Declaration, Thailand Waits for General's Next Move (WSJ)
  • China property slowdown spells trouble for Asia bonds (FT)
  • Russia Close to $400 Billion Gas Pipeline Deal in Pivot to China (BBG)
  • Dimon-by-the-Sea Shows London Banking’s Engine of Growth (BBG)
  • Modi Faces Greece-Sized Snag to Economic Revival (FT)
  • U.K. Inflation Accelerates on Airfare Surge (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: May 19





  • Qatar Bank: Deutsche Bank to raise $11 bln with help from Qatar (Reuters)
  • AstraZeneca rejects Pfizer's take-it-or-leave-it offer (Reuters)
  • China Home-Price Growth Slowdown Spreads as Sellers Discount (BBG)
  • The new face of NSA: Mike Rogers (Reuters)
  • Putin orders troops near Ukraine to return home (AP)
  • Wall of Worry Rebuilt as Nasdaq Rout Sends Cash to High (Nasdaq)
  • Bank of England's Mark Carney highlights housing market's risk to UK economy (Guardian)
  • Greek Selloff Shows Rush for Exit Recalling Crisis (BBG)
  • Anti-austerity Greek radicals ahead in Athens local election (AFP)
 
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Narendra Modi: The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly





Given the surge in India's stock market, echoing the reflexive pro-business exuberance of last year's Japanese stock market, the similarities between India's newly-elected PM Narendra Modi and Japan's Shinzo Abe are coming thick and fast... some good (pro-business), some bad (potential dislike of the US) and some potentially ugly (strong nationalist tendencies).

 
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Frontrunning: May 16





  • Bank of England sees 'no housing bubble' (Independent)
  • ‘If the euro falls, Europe falls’ (FT)
  • India's pro-business Modi storms to historic election win (Reuters)
  • Global Growth Worries Climb (WSJ)
  • Bitcoin Foundation hit by resignations over new director (Reuters)
  • Blackstone Goes All In After the Flop (WSJ)
  • SAC's Steinberg loses bid for insider trading acquittal (Reuters)
  • Beats Satan: Republicans Paint Reid as Bogeyman in 2014 Senate Races (BBG)
  • Tech Firms, Small Startups Object to Paying for Internet 'Fast Lanes' (WSJ) - but they just provide liquidity
  • U.S. Warns Russia of Sanctions as Ukraine Troops Advance (BBG)
  • Major U.S. hedge funds sold 'momentum' Internet names in first-quarter (Reuters)
 
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Frontrunning: May 15





  • More than 20 dead, doctor says, as anti-China riots spread in Vietnam (Reuters)
  • Russia's Gazprom plans Singapore stock exchange listing (Reuters)
  • Inside Europe’s Plan Z (FT)
  • Ukraine slides deeper toward war as Russia warns to vote (BBG)
  • Fast-Food Protests Spread Overseas (NYT)
  • BOJ Beat, Officials Could Upgrade Outlook for Capex (WSJ)
  • Euro-Zone Economy Shows Weaker-Than -Expected Expansion (WSJ)
  • Yahoo to YouTube Ads Spreading Viruses Rile Lawmakers (BBG)
  • New York Times Ousts Jill Abramson as Executive Editor, Names Dean Baquet (BBG)
  • NYT Publisher Said to Always Have Clashed With Abramson (BBG)
  • Google gets take-down requests after European court ruling - source (Reuters)
 
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Wall Street Has Always Been Corrupt Or About To Be Corrupted





When obnoxiously wealthy pricks with the ability to bribe stock exchanges to place their trading computers on the floor of the exchange and financially induce the Wall Street banks to funnel trades through their dark pools in order to know what is happening a nanosecond before everyone else, and use this information to front run unknowing investors to generate risk free profits, it’s wrong. It really is black and white. I don’t care that it is supposedly “legal”.  By complying with Regulation NMS the smart order routers of institutional investor firms like Vanguard, Fidelity and Schwab simply funneled naïve investors into various snares laid for them by the unscrupulous high frequency traders. The bad guys always win and the good guys always lose on Wall Street. And no one does anything because they are all on the take. Lewis puts it in terms the average person can understand.

 
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Frontrunning: May 14





  • Vietnam mobs set fire to foreign factories in anti-China riots (Reuters)
  • Recession-Baby Millennials Scarred by U.S. Downturn Spurn Stocks (BBG)
  • U.S. Agents Start Hunting for Sanctioned Russians’ ‘Shiny Toys’ (BBG)
  • Russia moves to oust US from International Space Station (FT)
  • China Central Bank Calls for Faster Home Lending in Slump (BBG)
  • Geithner Must Give S&P Documents in U.S. Fraud Suit (BBG)
  • Samsung's 'crown prince' in focus as father hospitalized (Reuters)
  • Yahoo buys mobile 'self-destruct' messaging app Blink only to shut it down (Reuters)
  • Goldman’s Twitter banker joins hedge fund (FT)
  • Keyword being "unexpectedly": Sony Unexpectedly Forecasts Loss Amid PC Restructuring Costs (BBG)
 
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What Airlines Really Charge (In 1 Simple Table)





Based on the historical profit cycles of the US Airline industry, this most recent exuberance is starting to come to an end. However, as Morgan Stanley notes in their 'deep dive' report, "other revenues" continues to rise as airlines nickel, dime, and benjamin travelers for everything from flushing toilets to extra bags... here, in one simple table, is everything you need to know about Airlines' add-on fees but were afraid to check online...

 
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Frontrunning: May 13





  • EU Court: Google Must Remove Certain Links on Request (WSJ), people have right to be forgotten on Internet (Reuters)
  • Harsh weather: German Investor Confidence Drops for Fifth Straight Month (BBG)
  • More harsh weather: China Slowdown Deepens (BBG)
  • Harsh weather as far as the eye can see: China’s New Credit Declines (BBG)
  • "Alien" artist, surrealist H.R. Giger dies aged 74 (Reuters)
  • Pfizer urges AstraZeneca to talk as UK lawmakers slam offer (Reuters)
  • Property sector slowdown adds to China fears (FT)
  • Russia says EU sanctions will hurt Ukraine peace efforts (Reuters)
  • U.S. Considers Relaxing Crude Oil Export Restrictions (WSJ)
 
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Bank Of America Would Like To Buy Your Gold, Seeing "No Gains Above $1315"





Last year it was Goldman Sachs telling clients to "dump your gold" (only to become the biggest buyers of the precious metal in the following quarter). Just last month, Morgan Stanley advised clients that 'gold will not see $1300 again'... and today, Bank of America joins the crowd as Macneil Curry advises "It is time to sell Gold" (to BAML we presume?)... as the range trade of the past month is completing and the downtrend is set to resume.

 
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Frontrunning: May 12





  • Hillary and Me: The 2008 campaign was a nightmare. Will 2016 be as bad?  (Politico)
  • What Timothy Geithner Really Thinks (NYT)
  • Rebels declare victory in east Ukraine self-rule vote (Reuters)
  • Race for AIG's Top Job Has Two Favorites (WSJ)
  • America on the Move Becomes Stay-at-Home Nation for Millennials (BBG)
  • Old, Fired at IBM: Trendsetter Offers Workers Arbitration (BBG)
  • Bad luck Jonathan: Pressure Mounts on Nigerian President (WSJ)
  • Iran leader slams West's 'stupid' missile stance before talks (Reuters)
  • Conchita Wurst of Austria Wins Eurovision Song Contest (WSJ)
  • Greek Finance Ministry expects Q1 GDP contraction of less than 1.5 pct (Kathimerini)
 
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Do You Believe In 'Margin' Miracles?





"Priced for perfection" would seem an understatement after one glance at the astounding hockey-stick in margin-expansion expectations 'priced-into' the top 1500 US equities. One can't help but wonder, with a stagnating macro-economy and tapering Fed, just how bad the labor force participation rate will become as costs are cut to the bone marrow to enable this margin miracle to come true... and imagine what happens if the summer is hot and winter cold once again?!

 
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