Morgan Stanley

The October Payrolls Report: What Wall Street Expects

While the October payrolls report, due out at 8:30am on Friday, has taken on a secondary importance in light of the market's near certainty that the Fed will hike rates in December (absent a Trump victory and/or a market crash), analysts and traders will surely be concerned any prominent outlier prints that deviate too far from the consensus estimate of 175K. So, in preview of tomorrow's biggest economic update, here is a snapshot of what Wall Street expects.

Don’t Sweat The Election. The Next Crisis Is Already Baked Into The Cake

From here on out politics are only relevant at the extremes - major war, corruption scandal, martial law etc. Short of that, the fiat currency/fractional reserve banking world has such institutional momentum that it really won’t matter whether Trump is picking on bankers and building his wall or Clinton is protecting Wall Street and raising taxes. Debt will keep soaring as it has under every president since Reagan and jobs will disappear as machines replace people, thus bringing the end of the current system inexorably closer.

Global Bond Selloff Resumes; Stocks Rise Following Strong Chinese Data

With October, the worst month for stocks since January, now in the history books S&P futures are eager to telegraph that the streak of five consecutive will end, with a modest gain of 0.3% in overnight trading, coupled with mixed global markets as the global bond selloff returned after strong Chinese economic data prompted concerns about rising global inflation.

Waking Up In Hillary Clinton's America

With less than two weeks to go before E-day -- despite the Trumptilian upheaval of the last year -- the high probability of a Clinton win means the establishment remains intact. When we awaken on November 9th, it will undoubtedly be dawn in Hillary Clinton’s America and that potentially means four years of an economic dystopia that will (as would Donald Trump’s version of the same) leave many Americans rightfully anxious about their economic futures.

Deutsche Bank Reports Unexpected Q3 Profit, But Wall Street Yawns Asking For More

After serving much drama to its shareholders - and global markets - over the past couple of months, when its stock tumbled to all time lows, Deutsche Bank provided some relief when earlier this morning it reported a modest, unexpected profit of €256 million for the third quarter on lower litigation and restructuring costs, beating consensus estimate. However, to many on Wall Street, this wasn't enough.

Love Him Or Hate Him: Trump Is The Revolution Against The Establishment

Whenever people are forced by the government to accept and pay for things they do not want, the outcome is discontent and opposition, typically suppressed and downplayed by the mainstream media in accordance with the state’s agenda of political correctness. Trump stands for everyone who is sick and tired of the current system and the political elite who have grown out of touch with ordinary American citizens... they are the American version of the European anti-establishment movement.

Frontrunning: October 21

  • Trump, Clinton trade barbed jokes for charity (Reuters)
  • Islamic State retaliates as Iraqi forces push on Mosul (Reuters)
  • Hedge Fund Managers Struggle to Master Their Miserable New World (BBG)
  • Woebegone Stock Pickers Vow: We Shall Return! (WSJ)
  • Madonna pledges oral sex for Clinton voters (The Hill)

Global Stocks, US Futures Modestly Higher As Debate Digested, Draghi Eyed

Global stocks were modestly higher, before the European Central Bank gives its policy update, while investors weigh mixed earnings results. Asian stocks rise, U.S. equity-index futures are little changed.  The euro touched its weakest level since July and stocks in the region fell after their first back-to-back gains in two weeks.

Frontrunning: October 19

  • China third quarter GDP grows 6.7 percent as expected as construction booms, debt rises (Reuters)
  • China Growing at 6.7% Opens Window to Deliver Debt-Curb Vow (BBG)
  • U.S. expects Islamic State to wield chemical weapons in Mosul fight (Reuters)
  • Iraq urges U.S.-led coalition to prevent Islamic State escape to Syria (Reuters)
  • Fox national poll shows Clinton leading by six points (Hill)