Donald Trump is preparing to appoint another Wall Street proxy to the top Wall Street regulation, supervision and enforcement post. According to the WSJ, Wall Street M&A and IPO lawyer, Jay Clayton, is Trump's leading candidate to become chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission and could be announced as the nominee as soon as Wednesday.
"Part of us thinks we should just sell the inauguration. After all, what incrementally positive and exciting outcomes could be produced in the first few weeks after that? We are worried that there is an arrogance in telling people that they should be worried, but to stay bullish for now."
If you think you’re hearing a wee bit of a mixed message emanating from households and businesses, you’re not losing your marbles. If the stars don’t align perfectly, if the sequel doesn’t best the original, smaller investors might want to wise up to the fact that they’re being hustled by the equivalent of professional gamblers.
Since Trump’s election, the US stock market has climbed unstoppably along a remarkably steep path to round off at a teetering height. Is this the irrational exuberance that typically marks the last push before a perilous plunge?
"Markets don’t have a purpose any more - they just reflect whatever central planners want them to. Why wouldn’t it lead to the biggest collapse? My strategy doesn’t require that I’m right about the likelihood of that scenario. Logic dictates to me that it’s inevitable..."
Credit Suisse agreed to pay $5.28 billion to resolve a U.S. investigation into its business in mortgage-backed securities as officials work through a backlog of crisis-era bank cases. The Swiss lender will pay a $2.48 billion civil penalty and $2.8 billion in relief for homeowners and communities hit by the collapse in home prices, it said in a statement Friday.
While being capable of imagining a 'black swan' event implies its non-existence; given the level of groupthink consensus agreement that the bond bull is dead, inflation is back, central banks are maxed out, and global fiscal stimulus will save the world, we thought a look at some of the more unsusual, unpredictable expectations for 2017 was worthwhile...
On Tuesday, the SEC announced that Morgan Stanley will be fined $7.5 million to settle civil charges that it violated customer protection rules, when it used trades involving customer cash to lower its borrowing costs within its "Delta One" desk, in a transaction that can only be described as quite intricate.
"The biggest surprises in 2016 were clearly political – notably Brexit and the US presidential election. As a result, we will be keeping a close eye on political developments in 2017, notably in Europe, where not just Germany, France and Italy are heading to the polls in 2017, but also the Netherlands and possibly also Greece."
When it comes to today's Fed decision, there is little doubt: a 25 bps rate hike, the first in 2016 and only the second since the financial crisis, is now assured: all 103 Bloomberg-surveyed economists expect a 25bp increase, and the market agrees pricing in a 100% probability of a rate hike. So what does matter? Here is a selection of sellside opinions, summarizing they key things to watch for in today's FOMC statement.
Yesterday's brief hiccup in what has been an otherwise relentless rally in global risk assets is all but forgotten this morning, as European and Asian stocks, and US equity futures, all rise in quiet trading ahead of tomorrow's FOMC meeting, with the Dow set to make a 16th consecutive post-election all time high.
With oil prices surging to 17-month highs following this weekend's OPEC-NOPEC deal and Saudi promises to cut still more, many Wall Street analysts are skpetical with Goldman Sachs warning that the Saudis are wrong to think U.S. shale production won’t respond to higher prices. However, Nomura and Bernstein see little threat to OPEC from rising U.S. shale production in 2017.