Morgan Stanley

Global gold production remains at its level of the late '90s, even though prices have risen to over $1,700 per ounce from $252 per ounce in 1999 or roughly 16% per annum in dollar terms. Only Rio Tinto and Ivanhoe's Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia stand out as a major new gold mines expected to begin production in the near future. Bulls note that global production has remained impervious to the price of gold. This may continue to be the case due to the increasingly obvious geological constraints being seen in the gold mining sector. Resource nationalism is beginning to become an important factor again. This will also almost certainly affect supply at a time when demand is increasing from people throughout the world and many hedge funds, pension funds and central banks’ due to geopolitical, systemic and monetary risks. The lesson of QE is that fiat currencies increasingly grow on trees. Gold does not.  This is the primary reason that gold will continue to protect investors in the coming months.

• Nothing has changed and things have just gotten worse: Europe Banks Fail to Cut as Draghi Loans Defer Deleverage (Bloomberg)
• Mitt Romney secret video reveals views on Obama voters (BBC)
• Romney Stands by Government-Dependent ‘Victims’ Remark (Bloomberg)
• Video shows Libyans helping rescue U.S. ambassador after attack (Reuters)
• Fannie Mae paid BofA premium to transfer soured loans-regulator (Reuters)
• Northrop to shed nearly 600 jobs (LA Times)
• LOLmarkets: Retail Currency Traders Turn to Algorithms (WSJ)
• U.K. Royal Family Wins French Ruling on Kate Photos (Bloomberg)
• Nevada recluse dies with $200 in bank, $7 million in gold at home (LA Times)
• Gap Between Rich and Poor Grows in Germany (Spiegel)
• Chicago teachers meet Tuesday to decide whether to end strike (Reuters)
• Australia's Fortescue wins debt breather, shares soar (Reuters) ... a deal which ultimately will prime equity and unsecureds by $4.5 billion in secured debt
• Ford car sales fall 29% in Europe (FT)

Having had the last 2 weeks propped up by Ben and Jerry, oops, Mario, who delivered the f(l)avours that had been expected throughout the summer, markets will be in need for some concrete impulses to push further.

Spanish bond auction on Thu rather on the mighty side.

Mostly bored today, though...

Following this morning's dismal Empire manufacturing 'growth' data (which generated zero impact in equity futures thanks to QEternity 'policy' having dampened the market's beta to any and every macro data points) we note Morgan Stanley's findings that while monetary policy can provide a temporary boost to valuations (driving investors quickly into higher beta and into value over growth), in fact over medium-term horizons (i.e. more than a week or two), it is in fact growth that dominates the drivers of equity performance. Since growth in our advanced 'new normal' economy means debt (and realistically has meant more debt for over 30 years), and with even the most exuberant of Fed heads seeing only modest growth over the next few years, perhaps the hubris of the last few days in the equity markets will dissolve into reality sooner than everyone hopes (i.e. before November) as the realization of Koo's impotent Fed comes to pass and the fiscal cliff remains unresolved.

• Anti-Japan demonstrators protest in New York City (China Daily) ...and the propaganda: Younger generation feels wave of emotions (CD)
• And the retaliation: Obama to launch auto trade case against China (Reuters)
• Spanish Banks Bleeding Cash Cloud Bailout Debate (Bloomberg)
• Chicago teachers extend strike (Reuters); Emanuel Promises He’ll Sue to End Chicago Teacher Strike (Bloomberg)
• China hurts own credibility with Xi's vanishing act (Reuters)
• European Squabbling on Euro Crisis Solution May Test Rally (Bloomberg)
• Two South Africa mines reopen, most don't (Reuters)
• Finance Industry Warns of ‘Cliff Effect’ in ECB’s Bond Plan (Bloomberg)
• China struggles to cure the violent ills of health system (Reuters)
• QE3 is for Main Street, except... it isn't: QE3 hit by mortgage processing delays (FT)
• Probe focuses on JPMorgan's monitoring of suspect transactions (Reuters)
• As explained here before: Spanish Bonds Decline as EU Policy Makers Clash on Bank Plan (Bloomberg)

Whether the optics of a jobs-related target for the Fed's QEternity are election-based public relations, from-the-heart sentiment of an ivory tower academic neck-deep in the reality of his failed ethos, or well-intentioned more-of-the-same Krugmanite 'we need a bigger boat' print til-we-stink policy; it is relatively clear that the Fed has changed course. The longstanding problem at the Fed has been that while each policymaker more or less agreed that guiding policy by a rule made sense, they could not collectively agree on the rule. Morgan Stanley's Vince Reinhart notes perfectly that at its September meeting, the Fed effectively evaded the issue by setting QE off in a general direction, much in the same way Columbus pointed his three ships West and expected eventually to land in India. The history books admire the audacity of a man with a vision. Columbus sailed in the direction toward the known world’s end. Of course, he also sailed further than expected and landed on a completely different continent than planned. If the Fed has not acted consistently over the past few meetings, how will market participants infer future action?

Valuations; stocks are cheap; money-on-the-sidelines; everyone's bearish; trend is your friend. We've all heard them and we've all played them but the following charts from Morgan Stanley will at least provide some nuance of sense for those stunned into silence by a market seeing its nominal price surging amid Bernanke blowing bubbles. The headline is - with real rates this low (and staying low for a few more years yet) current P/E multiples are extremely high and even on a long-run empirical basis, hope remains excessive at 22xShiller P/E versus an average 16x. Remember, a long-term investment is a short-term trade gone bad. But it seems for now that you buy because you'll always be able to sell it back higher to the next smarter dumber greater fool.

• Italy Says It Won't Seek Aid (WSJ)... and neither will Spain, so no OMT activation, ever. So why buy bonds again?
• European Lenders Keep Ties to Iran (WSJ)
• Fink Belies Being Boring Telling Customers to Buy Stocks (Bloomberg)
• Dutch Voters Buck Euro Debt Crisis to Re-Elect Rutte as Premier (Bloomberg)
• China's Xi cited in state media as health rumors fly (Reuters)
• China vs Japan: Tokyo must come back 'from the brink' (China Daily)
• Manhattan Apartment Vacancy Rate Climbs After Rents Reach Record (Bloomberg)
• Well-to-do get mortgage help from Uncle Sam (Reuters)
• Princeton Endowment Expected to Rise Less Than 5% in Year (Bloomberg)
• Protesters Encircle U.S. Embassy in Yemen (WSJ)
• US groups step up sales of non-core units (FT)

• Germany Can Ratify ESM Fund With Conditions, Court Rules (Bloomberg)
• Obama Discusses Iran Nuclear Threat With Netanyahu (Bloomberg)
• Stocks, Euro Gain as Court Allows ESM; Irish Bonds Climb (Bloomberg)
• U.S. cautions Japan, China over escalating islands row (Reuters)
• Draghi alone cannot save the euro (FT)
• 'New York Post' Runs Boldest Anti-Obama Ad Yet (Bloomberg)
• Another urban legend: Fish Oil Pills Don’t Fix Heart Ills in 24-Year Data Review (Bloomberg)
• Troika Says Portugal’s Program is ‘On Track’ (Bloomberg)
• Russia Wants to Steer Clear of 'Gas War' (WSJ)
• U.S. Said Set to Target First Non-Bank Firms for Scrutiny (Bloomberg)
• Wen Says China’s Policy Strength Will Secure Growth Targets (Bloomberg)
• UK faces clash with Brussels on City (FT)

Most people know that during this year's Coachella festival, Tupac made a surprising appearance, if not in the flesh for obvious reasons, then in hologram form. What fewer people know is that the firm that created Holo-Tupac is special effects producer Digital Domain Media, which after years of failed attempts to do so, finally went public in November with Roth Capital as underwriter (there is now an Urban Dictionary definition for 'Rothed') at a price of $8.50 (well below the preliminary range of $10-12/share) and at a time when its burn rate was well above 50% of revenues, and which filed for bankruptcy hours ago. In other words, the company destroyed over $400 million in market cap in under 10 months. What is known by very few is that this is yet another public equity disaster of this administration: as filed in the bankruptcy Affidavit, "the Company has worked closely with State and local government authorities in Florida to execute economic stimulus contracts designed to create jobs and stimulate Florida’s economy. As of the Petition Date, the Company had contracted to receive a total of approximately $135 million in such government stimulus financing, including $19.9 million in tax credits. This financing consists of cash grants, land grants, low-interest financing, and tax incentives." In other words, in addition to the government's remarkable track record in the alternative energy field, public equity is now in the digital movie studio subsidization business. End result: bankruptcy, of a publicly funded company, shortly after IPO and sadly the realization that US capital markets are now so broken that the combination of private and public funding can sustain a company for less than one year.

It seems most have strong views on who should not be the Chairman of the Fed but based on a recent survey at a Morgan Stanley conference, it seems Ron Paul still has an outside chance. What of Justin Bieber? Jim Grant? Maria Bartiromo? Chuck Norris?

Just what is priced in? That is the question. Based on the aggregate size of the Fed and ECB balance sheets, it appears the S&P 500 is pricing in an increase of around USD300bn in the short-term. This USD 300bn amounts to EUR 240bn - a very special and rather too coincidental number. Based on expectations of supply, the EMU16 nations have EUR 245bn issuance remaining for the rest of 2012. So, it would appear that the market, in its ever-hopeful ebullient way has priced in the expectation that the ECB will soak up the entire remaining debt issuance of the 16 (remaining) Euro nations for the rest of the year. Anything less will be a disappointment - and remember each nation will have to ask for 'help' before receiving this 'support'. Coincidence, maybe? Over-confidence, perhaps? Reality, not a chance.

Despite high-flying equity indices, there is some underlying concern that all is not rosy in the global economy (and that Fed/ECB/PBoC might not save the day this time). As Morgan Stanley notes, the overcrowded trades are overweight US and within US overweight defensives - implying cyclicals are starting to reflect the current global macro weakness and that there are further downgrades to global growth forecasts to come. Expectations for a repeat of H2 2011's surge in positive surprises are misplaced as several unique factors were at play last year - and are very much lacking this year; moreover global growth indicators are significantly weaker than a year ago. With this background, MS also does not expect imminent QE in the US; the Chinese policy response continues to lag expectations; and there are several hurdles to executing ECB action - all of which leave them expecting further substantial downgrades to 2013 consensus earning forecasts in the US.

We fear that the data given to us by Europe is erroneous. The resident institutions in the world where one thinks that accurate data may be found for Europe are Eurostat and the Bank for International Settlements. Spain and her official admission of "dynamic provisioning" has raised all kinds of questions in our mind and has unsettled our belief in the data provided by Europe. It is now quite apparent that the numbers for all of the Spanish banks, are inaccurate. It may well be that the EU or the ECB could bury what may be found but it would be awfully tough for the IMF to hide any material breaches. Even when considering the IMF however, certain questions are raised. Their projections for Europe and each and every country in Europe have been wrong, dead wrong and far too optimistic. This then would explain why Europe is in such trouble because if the data is not truthful then the truth, as most often happens, leaks out from underneath that which is hidden and provides the outcomes that the Europeans have tried so hard to avoid. Whatever the real numbers are, they are providing the consequences that result from their actuality.

A Round Up of today's articles. In audio summary! It beats having lunch with your Zionist banker friends. Don't forget that spitting is equally as important as swallowing! Every day at 8pm New York time!