Morgan Stanley

First Morgan Stanley issued the first market forecast of 2012 before the market has even opened, and now it is Greece's turn to threaten fire and brimstone (aka to leave the Eurozone, but according to UBS and everyone else in the status quo the two are synonymous) within hours of the New Year, if the second bailout, which as far as we recall was arranged back in July 2011, is not secured. Quote the BBC: ""The bailout agreement needs to be signed otherwise we will be out of the markets, out of the euro," spokesman Pantelis Kapsis told Skai TV." And cue several million furious Germans and tomorrow's German newspaper headlines telling Greece bon voyage on its own as it commences braving the treacherous waters of hyperinflation. In other news, the sequel to Catch 22 is in the works, and explains how Greek tax collectors (i.e., people who collect those all important taxes so very needed for government revenues) continues to strike. In it we also learn that the first strike of the year in Athens is already in place, with Greek doctors saying they will treat only emergency cases until Thursday, in protest at changes to healthcare provision. All in all, the complete collapse of the Greek debt slave society is proceeding just as planned.

The market has not even opened for regular trading for the first trading day of the year and already predictions for the final print are made. Enter Morgan Stanley, which unlike last year, when it was painfully bullish has come out with an uncharacteristic and quite bearish prediction: "We are establishing a 2012 year-end price target of 1167, representing 7% downside from today’s price. The consensus top-down view has coalesced, with limited variation, around 1350, making our forecast 13% more conservative than the “muddle  through” scenario implied by consensus." And the primary reason for this - a collapse in earnings predictions: "We are launching our 2013 EPS estimate of $103.1, 15% below the bottom-up consensus forecast of $121.1." Time to reevaluate those record corporate profit margin assumptions? That said, make no mistake - just like SocGen, Goldman, UBS and everyone else, the sole purpose of these bearish forecasts is to get the market to drop low enough to give the Fed cover for QE X. Because as Adam Parker, who made the forecast, knows all too well, if the market indeed closes red for 2012, so will Wall Street bonuses.

Previously it was Credit Suisse and Citigroup. Now it is Morgan Stanley's turn, as 580 employees in the firm's three New York office learn they are about to get the boot courtesy not of the HR department but the DOL's WARN website, which just happens to be the best real-time indicator for observing the transition of the soon to be former 1% into the 99%.

Yesterday, we breached the topic of the real decoupling that is going on: that between the macro and the micro (not some ridiculous geographic distribution of the US versus the world), by presenting David Rosenberg's thoughts on why Q4 GDP has peaked and why going forward it is energy prices that are likely to be a far greater drag on incremental growth than the preservation (not the addition as it is not incremental) of $10 per week in payroll taxes (which only affects those who are already employed), even as company earnings and profit margins have likely peaked. Today, following up on why the micro is about to return with a bang, and why fundamentals are about to become front and center all over again, albeit not in a good way, is, surprisingly, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, who has issued his loudest warning again bleary eyed optimism for the next year: "Think of 2012 as the “payback” year….when many of the extraordinary things that happened over the past 3 years go in reverse. I am talking about incremental fiscal stimulus, a weaker US dollar, positive labor productivity, and accelerated capital spending." Said otherwise, 2012 is the year when everything that can go wrong in the micro arena, will go wrong. And this is why Morgan Stanley being bullish on the macro picture! As Wilson says, his pessimistic musing "tells the story for what to expect in 2012 assuming the situation in Europe doesn’t implode. In other words, this is not the macro bear case." If one adds a full blown European collapse to the mix, then the perfect storm of a macro and micro recoupling in a deleveraging vortex will prove everyone who believes that 2012 will be merely a groundhog year (in same including us) fatally wrong.

A week ago, we touched upon the likelihood that the recent gold sell-off was driven primarily due to a quirk in liquidity provisioning in which gold plays a key role via its "forward lease rates", or the Libor-GOFO differential. Specifically, in "As Negative Gold Lease Rates Collapse, The Gold Sell Off Is Likely Coming To An End" we said, "In a nutshell, negative lease rates mean one has to pay for the "privilege" of lending out one's gold as collateral - a prima facie collateral crunch. The lower the lease rate, the greater the use of gold as a source of liquidity - and since the indicator is public - it is all too easy for entities that do have liquidity to game the spread and force sell offs by those who are telegraphing they are in dire straits and will sell their gold at any price if forced, to prevent a liquidity collapse." Said otherwise, the lower lease rates drop, and they recently hit a record low for the 3M varietal, the likelier it is that gold may see substantial moves lower. Today, Morgan Stanley's Peter Richardson recaps precisely what was said here, in a note titled "Recent fall in gold prices points to bank funding costs." Granted, MS only looks at the first part of the equation - the dropping lease rates, and ignores the re-normalization in gold, aka the tightening in lease rates. Well, with the 3M forward lease rate now almost back to unchanged, it appears our speculation that the gold sell off, with spot at $1575 on the 15th, is over were correct, and gold is now $40 higher, and just below the critical 200 DMA that everyone saw as the catalyst of gold going to $0. So what does MS have to add to our analysis? Well, much more optimism for one, because not only does the bank think we are right that the collapse in negative lease rates (i,e., the flattening to practically unchanged) mean the sell off is over, but such a normalization of the gold lease market has "the makings of a renewed upward assault on the recent all-time high.... Our current gold price forecast for 2012 of US$2,200/oz remains in place under these circumstances." Qed.

Every day after close it is one endless downgrade parade in which any of the permutations of rating agencies and either European sovereigns or banks get up and start playing musical chairs with each other. Then proceed to sit down for the overnight session. One of these days all the chairs will have been pulled. The banks cut in some capacity, either via long-term IDR or viability rating, are Bank of America, Barclays, BNP, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Societe Generale. Now we know that even creditors do not want to trigger any ratings downgrade covenants because it would offset what is likely a terminal margin call, but at some point someone will need to do through the various bond docs and find out just who (ahem Bank of America) will need to post far far higher collateral as a result of all these relentless downgrades.

A core portion of the MBIA thesis has been validated. Furthermore, the settlement hit to earnings of $1.8 billion is precisely as we expected back in March when we stated, "As Morgan Stanley Unwinds Its Massive MBIA CDS Losing Position, Is A Billion+ Hit To Earnings Coming?" Expect the short covering in MBIA to spring into action today. And hilariously, MBI short interest rose into the end of November! To those who followed our suggestion back in September and bought MBIA, congratulations on the 50% gain. It is likely that the true "squeeze thesis" upside is only yet to be uncovered.

We have often discussed the temporary and tenuous nature of any and all government-suggested solutions so far to the European crisis on the basis that the 'model' is broken. Following the decision to go for PSI, and the possibility of a sovereign leaving the Euro-zone (Greek referendum ultimatum), money is no longer fungible in and across European banks (deposits) and sovereigns as it seeks the stability of a narrower and narrower core. Arnaud Mares, of Morgan Stanley, who wrote the initial and definitive Greek story long before most others, brings up this very point; questioning the fungibility of Greek Euro deposits with French Euro deposits, for example, and interpreting the situation as a 'run on banks and governments'. His view that without a clear path to a fiscal lender of last resort - or a true fiscal federalism across a united Europe - which ensures solvent governments will never go illiquid, then the December 9th decisions mark a bifurcation point of critical import.

If governments choose to engage on the route to fiscal federalism, we believe that this does not mark the end of the crisis. It could, however, mark the beginning of the end of the crisis, as it would be a decisive first step towards stabilisation and a European federation. The alternative could well be the beginning of the end for the European confederation.

Europe has to choose between debt assumption (enhanced federal control of national budgets accompanied by centralised funding of governments) and a debt jubilee (wide-scale debt repudiation), with all the social, economic and political consequences this entails. Mares' four-question-framework for considering the words and deeds of December 9th is critical, though complex, reading to comprehend the tipping point we are at.

And so the two most "credible" investment banks have had their say on the EURUSD as a result of today's 250 pip surge in the EURUSD: while Goldman earlier said to buy, buy, buy (i.e., sell) every EURUSD pip until 1.40, here is Morgan Stanley with the mirror image call.

Today we entered a short EUR/USD trade at 1.3750. While Italian 10-year bond yields have tightened from the highs reached earlier this week, we believe yields still well above 6% are unsustainable for a debt market of 1.9tr EUR (third largest in the world). This means that Italy will need to spend nearly 10% of its annual GDP on interest payments alone. Meanwhile, political uncertainties add to concerns in the Eurozone, with new regimes in Greece and Italy. We remain fundamentally bearish on EUR, and believe it will retest 1.30 as Italy runs the risk of being “too big to save.”

Confused yet? Why bother. Maybe Goldman can just skip the foreplay, dump its entire EUR inventory to Morgan Stanley and spare everyone else the drama and paternity tests.

For the latest gimmick to mask PIIGS sovereign debt exposure (where we already know that the traditional fallback of "gross being irrelevant and only net being important" crashed and burned today after Jefferies offloaded precisely half of its gross exposure, while raising net, thereby confirming that gross exposure is indeed a risk), we turn yet again to Morgan Stanley. As a reminder, despite our note that the company's gross exposure (which is now a major risk factor, thank you Rich Handler for proving our "bilateral netting is flawed" thesis) to French banks alone is $39 billion, Morgan Stanley downplayed this by saying that only $2.1 billion is the actual net funded exposure to Peripherals Eurozone countries. We'll see if Jack Gorman will have to revisit his defense after today's Jefferies action. Well as it turns out, we now have gimmick number two, one which will surely delight the bearish investors out there looking to find a bank doing all it can to mask not only its gross but net exposure (and wondering why it has to resort to such shenanigans). Presenting the Level 1 to Level 2 switcheroo, courtesy of, who else, Morgan Stanley.

Have a sinking suspicion that the way the Eurozone has handled the past week's Greek threat has set the stage for the collapse of the Eurozone (here's looking at you Italy, over and over) now that Merkozy has made the possibility of a country leaving the Eurozone all too real? You are not alone: Morgan Stanley's Joachim Fels has just sent a note to clients in which he not only commingles three of the catchiest and most abused apocalyptic phrases of our time ("Emperor has no clothes", "Water Pistol not Bazooka"  and "Pandora's Box") he also warns, in no uncertain terms, that "by raising the possibility that a country might (be forced to) leave the euro, core European governments may have set in motion a sequence of events which could potentially lead to runs on sovereigns and banks in peripheral countries that make everything we have seen so far in this crisis look benign." And when a major investment bank, itself susceptible to bank runs warns of, well, bank runs, you listen.

Friday’s confidence vote in the Greek parliament will be extremely important in our view and will likely set the pace of the anticipated EUR decline over the coming months. Greek Prime Minister Papandreou could now find it difficult to win a confidence vote (due Friday 10GMT) given the defections from the government leave only the slimmest of majorities (just 151 votes in the 300 parliament). If the Greek PM fails to win the confidence vote then the government will fall. There is the possibility for a new Government under a different PM or the formation of a unity government. But these outcomes seem unlikely given that the opposition is strongly in favour of new elections. While new elections will delay the vote on the new budget reform measures and potentially delay the next round of bailout funds from the EU, this is likely to be seen as one of the most positive (least bearish) outcomes for the EUR as it will avoid a referendum. There could even be an initial relief rebound for the EUR on any news that a referendum is being avoided, by the continued uncertainty and delays with regard the passing of the new budget measures and payment of EU bailout funds will likely keep the EUR under pressure over the medium term. Indeed, most of the options under discussion in the market are EUR negative in our view. A victory by Papandreou in the confidence vote on Friday is likely to be seen as the most bearish for the EUR, opening the door to a referendum and the potential rejection of the bailout package by the Greek population.

Wondering why the future for housing as an asset is so bleak, why median housing prices continue to tumble and recently saw their biggest three month drop ever, and why there is no bottom in sight? Simple: the American public appears to have woken up to the reality that homes are no longer a flippable asset, and in fact continue to drop in price, an observation that is obvious to virtually all now. So what happens next? Why renting of course. Here is Morgan Stanley explaining (granted in a pitchbook for REITs but the underlying data is quite useful) why the Housing 2.0 paradigm is all about renting.

As we present Morgan Stanley in the role of the biggest Netflix bull (or is that loser? We are not sure we can use that word without preclearing it with the Wall Street directorate of truth), we eagerly await the barrage from the media that has a "gag order" on the investment bank with massive French bank exposure, that will shoot the messenger for suggesting that in addition to being a European bank risk derivative, Gorman's bank is also one of the biggest finders and keepers of momo darlings. As for the UBS Global Asset Management and Lone Pine analysts who loaded up to the gills on NFLX stock in Q2, we are confident you will have more than enough time to sample the company's streaming product in your extended search for the next job.

There is just one piece of information one needs to see to realize just how big of a farce financial results reporting has become in America, with the accountants' and auditors' blessing. Morgan Stanley today reported income of $2.2 billion, or $1.14 per diluted share on an apples to unicorns basis, compared with income of $314 million, or $0.05 per diluted share, for the same period a year ago. Net revenues were $9.9 billion for the current quarter compared with $6.8 billion a year ago. Expectations were for revenue and EPS of $7.28 billion and $0.30. Both were massively missed because "results for the current quarter included positive revenue of $3.4 billion, or $1.12 per diluted share, compared with negative revenue of $731 million a year ago related to changes in Morgan Stanley’s debt-related credit spreads and other credit factors (Debt Valuation Adjustment, DVA)." As the DVA, or the benefit from corporate spread explosions, is a top and bottom line number, the real results were $6.5 billion and $0.02. But, no, why report reality when there are fudge factors that soften the blow when a company underperforms. And furthermore, as every bank will tell you, its CDS marks are meaningless: after all, the "CDS market is illiquid and controlled by maniacs" or whatever David Viniar said on the Goldman conference call yesterday (more later on this). As for what matters: Institutional Securities revenue would have been $3 billion net of the DVA compared to $5.2 billion in Q2 - said otherwise a complete business collapse in the quarter.