In the latest tragic news from the world of finance, earlier today Zurich Insurance, the largest Swiss insurer which employs 55,000 people and provides general insurance and life insurance products in more than 170 countries, reported that Martin Senn, the company's former chief executive officer who stepped down in a December reshuffle, has committed suicide. He was 59.
"Buying Here Is Like Picking Pennies In Front Of A Steamroller" - 10 Reasons To Be Bearish From Credit SuisseSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 05/26/2016 13:17 -0400
Little margin for error. Multiples are elevated and the economic/earnings cycle is aging – this means the margin for error is small and shrinking and thus chasing the SPX at 2100+ is akin to “picking up pennies in front of a steamroller”.
Back during the last bubble, Business Development Corporation (BDC) pioneer American Capital was one of the hottest business models (and most desired companies to work for). However, when the bubble burst, so did the company's stock price, as well as its reputation, and in the past 9 years the company failed to see its stock price recover anywhere near the levels seen during the last bubble. Which is perhaps why moments ago in a dramatic move shaking up the BDC space, ACAS announced it would sell itself to another BDC titan, Ares Capital in a deal worth $3.4 billion.
With banker bonuses set to drop this year, it should be no surprise that things are not all sunshine and roses on Wall Street. After 30 years of dramatically outperforming Main Street, Wall Street wages may be set for some mean-reversion as JPMorgan analysts take an ax to the biggest global investment banks' earnings. As Bloomberg reports, "quiet trading floors" are set to depress global investment banks’ second-quarter revenue 24 percent, with weakness across equities, interest rates, currencies, with a regionally-driven weakness from Asia.
- As Brexit vote looms, U.S. banks review their European commitments (Reuters)
- Oil’s Strength Continues to Boost Global Stocks (WSJ)
- Trump closing gap with Clinton, poll shows (Hill)
- In Adjacent Pennsylvania Counties, Republicans Are Split on Donald Trump (WSJ)
- Make America Gold Again: Calls for Everyone's Favorite Standard Are Back (BBG)
Less than a week after Reuters broke the story that the Department of Justice is probing HFT powerhouse Citadel, which admits it executes 35% of all trades by retail investors in U.S.-listed stocks, whether it is also frontrunning those orders (an allegation that many are convinced is a rock-solid fact) we find that billionaire Ken Griffin is not at all concerned about the outcome of the investigation on his core business model and is instead expanding. Citadel is acquiring the equity-trading operations of Citigroup’s Automated Trading Desk division, one of the pioneers of high-frequency trading.
On March 10, 2016 when the ECB announced the biggest expansion to quantitative easing in European history, when it shocked the market by announcing not only a reduction in its negative rate and expansion in the TLTRO program, but also the launch of a corporate bond monetization program.Well maybe not "shocked" the market, because as Bloomberg writes, ECB board members met with representatives of banks and investment managers including Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, Credit Suisse and Moore Europe Capital Management in February, just days before the ECB's March 10 announcement.
What investigators found from the recently published Panama Papers database and other leaked documents is that none other than Goldman Sachs and three other banks that are licensed by the state of New York had set up Panamanian shell companies. The other banks are BNP Paribas SA, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce and Standard Chartered Plc.
One day after the biggest jump in stocks in two months on what has still been an undetermined catalyst, overnight global equities did a U-turn with European stocks falling toward a one-month low and U.S. stock index futures declining, as crude oil dropped toward $44 a barrel. A driver the move lower was a sharp reversal in the USDJPY which dropped 100 pips from yesterday's highs which took places just as Goldman predicted the USDJPY has finally bottomed, facilitated by a weaker dollar (also following a Goldman report yesterday forecasting the USD was about to surge).
Japanese banks may soon pay borrowers to accept loans if they can raise funds at even cheaper rates. Negative interest-rate lending is increasingly becoming a reality since the Bank of Japan started levying charges on idle cash. Lenders can now borrow for three months in the Tokyo interbank market at a record-low 6 basis-point annualized rate, versus 17 basis points since the BOJ move in January. They may eventually be able to be paid to borrow and then profit by paying less to lend, according to Credit Suisse Group AG, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. This is also known as shoving money down people's throats... and then paying them for it.
- World stock markets rise while yen falls back (Reuters)
- Yen Falls a Second Day as Japan Reiterates Ability to Intervene (BBG)
- Say goodbye to OPEC, Russia’s Sechin says (Reuters)
- European Stocks Buoyed by Banks (WSJ)
- Fed's Dudley: More Reserve Currencies Would Make for Stronger Financial System (WSJ)
- Dead-of-Night Reversal Puts Brazil Impeachment Back on Track (BBG)
In what has been an approximate repeat of the Monday overnight session, global stocks and US futures rose around the world as oil prices climbed toward $44 a barrel, with risk-sentiment pushed higher by another plunge in the Yen which has now soared 300 pips since the Friday post-payroll kneejerk reaction, and was trading above 109.20 this morning. At the same time base metals regained some of Monday’s steep losses following Chinese CPI data that came in line while PPI declined for 50 consecutive months however showed a modest rebound from the prior month on the back of China's recent, and now burst, speculative commodity bubble.
The "most shorted" stocks have fallen for 6 of the last 7 days, dropping almost 6% - the biggest in 3 months - as the S&P 500 fell just 1%.Year-to-date, 'shorts' are outperforming with "most shorted" down 3.3% compared to the broad market's unchanged return. As Credit Suisse noted, short squeeze pain appears to be abating...
HSBC’s main gold vault in London regularly comes under the media spotlight for a number of reasons. These reasons include: a) the HSBC London vault stores a very large amount of gold on behalf of the well-known SPDR Gold Trust (GLD); b) along with the Bank of England vaults and JP Morgan vault, the HSBC vault is one of the 3 largest gold vaults in London; c) the location of the HSBC vault in London is not publicised and so the secrecy creates intrigue; d) HSBC every so often throws out some visual or audio-visual media bait about the vault, most famously in the case of CNBC’s Bob Pisani; Despite all of the above, no one seems to have ever tried to figure out where this gold vault is actually located. Until now.
“What this means for the Fed’s reaction function isn’t clear,” Pozsar concludes. “But our instinct tells us that we will deal with a Fed inherently more sensitive to global financial conditions, inherently more sensitive to global growth and inherently more dovish than in the past…” Far be it from yours truly to worry. Still, it’s hard to take comfort in the knowledge that the Drano we’ve all come to know, though maybe not love, is now off the market.