Credit Suisse

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Eurasian Pivot? Moscow Expects "Progress" From Tsipras Visit





Despite what is unquestionably a rather dire outlook, Athens does have one card it has yet to play because as we noted last week, “once the first week of April comes and goes and Greece officially runs out of money, it will go to anyone who can provide it with the funds needed to avoid civil war, even if that means switching its allegiance from Europe to the Eurasian Economic Union, something Russia is eagerly looking forward to.

 
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Are We In A Biotech Bubble? You Decide





Biotech has outperformed the broad market by a count of 3.5:1 over the past four years, is up four fold over a decade that included the worst financial crisis since the Depression, is riding a 5-year reign as the top performing sector, and the number of public companies in the sector with $2B market caps has tripled in four years. But we'll let the charts do the talking.

 
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What The Sell-Side Thinks Will Happen To The Dollar Next





"The Fed is a reluctant Dollar bull," explains Goldman Sachs, noting that Yellen inadvertently revealed the FOMC's expectation that coming policy changes will boost the greenback. Broadly speaking the rest of the sell-side has herded along into the strong US Dollar camp with only Unicredit (rate shift may slow recent very strong USD momentum) and Morgan Stanley (suggesting USD corrective activity) backing away from full dollar bull though most suggest adding to dollar longs on any dip as the most crowded trade in the world gets crowded-er. Then Stan Fischer added... "DOLLAR WON'T KEEP RISING FOREVER."

 
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Frontrunning: March 23





  • Saudis keep on pumping, oil prices keep on slumping (Reuters)
  • Tenet Healthcare Nearing Deal to Buy United Surgical Partners (WSJ)
  • Dizzying Pre-IPO Tech Values Spurred by Rush of Hedge-Fund Money (BBG)
  • Russia threatens to aim nuclear missiles at Denmark ships if it joins NATO shield (Reuters)
  • Torrent of Cash Exits Eurozone (WSJ)
  • Draghi Cheerleads for Euro-Area Economy as Greek Risk Looms (BBG)
  • Fortescue Mines for More Financing Options (WSJ)
  • Topix Charts Evoke Calm Before ’13 Rout as Momentum Gains (BBG)
 
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"Record Corporate Cash And Profitability" Are Lies: Here Is The Truth





Since the number of people who still believe this lie has soared in recent months, it is our duty to conduct a public service announcement to show the truth. Here it is, from Credit Suisse:"Cash levels have slipped relative to assets, while free cash flow yields are nearly back to 2007 lows." and "Corporate cash levels in the US are still high relative to history, but have been worked down in recent years."

 
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Desperate Shale Companies Issue Stock To Stay Afloat





U.S. oil producers are issuing new shares of stock at the fastest pace in more than a decade, looking to investors for a cash lifeline to pay down debt and keep drilling as crude prices continue to sink, Bloomberg notes, a move which paradoxically will only serve to depress prices further. 

 
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Frontrunning: March 20





  • Clinton Charity Tapped Foreign Friends (WSJ)
  • Dollar Set for Worst Week Since ’13; S&P Futures Rise (BBG)
  • Shale Producers Have Found Another Lifeline: Shareholders (BBG)
  • BOJ Kuroda says no sign of 'currency war' brewing in world (Reuters)
  • Fed Is Pushing and Pulling on Rates Riddle (WSJ
  • Brent oil falls towards $54 on OPEC output, Iran (Reuters)
  • Iran Talks Stall Over Ending of Sanctions (WSJ)
 
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Here Is Why The Fed Can't Hike Rates By Even 0.25%





the next time someone asks "why is Yellen so terrified of even the smallest possible rate hike", show them this chart above and explain that the Fed vividly remembers what heppened when LTCM blew up. What the Fed doesn't want, is not one but one thousand LTCMs going off at exactly the same time in what is now the world's most levered trade...

 
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Frontrunning: March 18





  • Hilsenrath: Fed to Markets: No More Promises (WSJ)
  • Fed set to ditch 'patient' rate vow as it eyes U.S., world growth (Reuters)
  • Fannie, Freddie could need another bailout (Reuters)
  • Alibaba Stock-Sale Lockup Is Ending (WSJ)
  • Netanyahu Sweeps Aside Herzog’s Challenge to Win Israel Vote (BBG)
  • Oil Bonds Lose Investors $7 Billion in 10 Days (BBG)
  • There’s a mysterious $1.1 trillion in spending cuts in the House GOP’s budget (WaPo)
  • ECB's Celebration of Its New $1.4 Billion Tower Is Spoiled by Protesters (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: March 17





  • Israelis vote as 'King Bibi's' reign hangs in the balance (Reuters), Factbox: Main candidates in Israel's election (Reuters)
  • Iran Can Add Million Barrels a Day of Oil If Sanctions Halt (BBG)
  • Kremlin rules out handing back Crimea to Ukraine (Reuters)
  • Saudi Arabia Needs More Oil to Feed Local Refinery Expansion (BBG)
  • How Lafarge’s CEO Went From Holcim Merger Architect to Obstacle (BBG)
  • When Yellen Gets Less Predictable She’s Getting Back to Normal (BBG)
  • Iran nuclear talks intensify as sides face tough issues (Reuters)
  • Debunking $1.4 Trillion Europe Debt Myth in Post-Heta Age (BBG)
 
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The Best "Democracy" Money Can Buy: For Every Dollar Spent Influencing US Politics, Corporations Get $760 Back





Between 2007 and 2012, 200 of America’s most politically active corporations spent a combined $5.8 Billion on federal lobbying and campaign contributions. What they gave pales compared to what those same corporations got: $4.4 Trillion in federal business and support. Here is the visual representation of this stunning finding: for every dollar spent on influencing politics, the nation’s most politically active corporations received $760 from the government.

 
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Frontrunning: March 13





  • Again as first reported here: Record U.S. Oil Glut May Fill Storage, Cut Prices (BBG)
  • IEA sees renewed pressure on oil prices as glut worsens (Reuters)
  • No EU unanimity on renewing Russia economic sanctions (Reuters)
  • Tsipras says Greece doing its part in euro zone deal (Reuters)
  • ECB Set to Buy Fewer Bonds as Price Gains Ease Crunch (BBG)
  • These Americans Are Getting Rich Trading Derivatives Banned in the U.S. (BBG)
  • U.S. 2015 profits forecast to grow 1.7 percent; oil, dollar are concerns (Reuters) - in a month this will say "decline"
  • Manhunt for shooting suspects grinds on in Ferguson, Missouri (Reuters)
 
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Venezuela Begins Liquidating Its Gold





In an attempt to secure some stability, i.e., funds, now that Venezuela is no longer able to tap Chinese bailout loans as last-recourse funding, Reuters reported that Venezuela's central bank is in talks with Wall Street banks to create a gold swap that would allow it to monetize some $1.5 billion of the metal held as international reserves, according to government sources familiar with the operation.  Under the swap, the central bank would provide 1.4 million troy ounces in exchange for cash.

 
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Frontrunning: March 11





  • Fed Likely to Remove ‘Patient’ Barrier for Rate Increase as Soon as June (Hilsenrath) - which year?
  • Clinton says used personal email account for convenience (Reuters)
  • Euro sinks to 12-year lows as yield gap grows (Reuters)
  • Get Ready for Oil Deals: Shale Is Going on Sale (BBG)
  • EIA raises 2015 US oil production forecast, cuts 2016 outlook (Reuters)
  • How Falling Oil Prices Are Hindering Iraq’s Ability to Fight Islamic State (WSJ)
  • China economic data weaker than expected, fuels policy easing bets (Reuters)
  • ECB ‘Chasing Own Tail’ as Bond Rates Turn Negative, SocGen Says (BBG)
  • Swiss makers quietly gear up with smartwatches of their own (Reuters)
 
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Frontrunning: March 10





  • Dollar at 12-year peak versus euro, emerging markets spooked (Reuters)
  • CIA sought to hack Apple iPhones from earliest days (Reuters)
  • Draghi Urged Greece to Allow Troika Back Before It’s Late (BBG)
  • Brent crude dips below $58 on strong dollar and supply (Reuters)
  • Credit Suisse replaces CEO Dougan with Prudential's Thiam (Reuters)
  • More "distressed" energy M&A: Verisk buys Wood Mackenzie for £1.85bn (FT)
  • Prepare for a surge in defaults: Investors Are Buying Stocks and Bonds From Energy Producers Amid Oil Price Drop (WSJ)
  • Private equity executive ordered to pay £72m to ex-wife (FT)
  • Democratic donors unfazed by Hillary Clinton's use of private email (Reuters)
  • Expensive Hepatitis C Medications Drive Prescription-Drug Spending (WSJ)
  • 'ISIS Hackers' Almost Certainly Not ISIS Hackers (NBC)
 
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