Credit Suisse

Deutsche: The Fed Gave Trump Just Enough Rope To Hang Himself With

"The future is bimodal with volatility to be found between politics vs. policy... Either political bottlenecks clear and the stimulus gets approved and goes full force leading to higher growth potential with structural steepening of the curve, or political tensions effectively sabotage either its arrival or content (or both), and the curve initially bear flattens or even twists with rate shorts capitulation accelerating the rally of the back end."

Credit Suisse "Climbs The Wall Of Worry", Raises S&P Target To 2,500 From 2,350

"Following the reaching of our mid-year S&P 500 target, we raise both our mid-year and year-end S&P targets to 2,400 and 2,500, respectively (from 2,350 and 2,300). We continue to see a clear-cut risk that we get an overshoot to the upside in equities that then reverses later on; more realistically, this reversal is likely to be a very late-2017 or 2018 event." - Credit Suisse

"2017 Will Be A Tipping Point" - Why Some Think This Is The Next "Big Short"

"These malls are dying, and we see very limited prospect of a turnaround in performance" according to a January report from Alder Hill, which began shorting the securities. "We expect 2017 to be a tipping point." Indeed, cracks have appeared: prices on the BBB- pool of CMBS have tumbled from 96 cents on the dollar in late January to 87 cents last week

When It Comes To Wall Street, Preet Bharara Is No Hero

The prominent U.S. attorney fired by Donald Trump this weekend has been justly acclaimed for his pursuit of political corruption. But his treatment of the Wall Street executives involved in the financial meltdown was far less confrontational.

Why OPEC Is Colluding With Hedge Funds

"In meetings with traders, Mr. Barkindo has asked about the declining role of investment banks in commodity-futures trading and the increased use of automated trades, according to people who were present. He asked why U.S. banks were so quick to reinvest in American shale producers after the bust and what would happen if prices fell again."

Production, Rig Count Surge As Exxon Bets Big On U.S. Shale

US oil rig counts rose for the 7th straight week (up 7 to 609) to the highest level since October 2015. And production looks set to rise further as Exxon will now ramp up spending on shale drilling, after watching dozens of smaller companies profit from the surge in production in Texas, North Dakota and elsewhere over the past decade.

All Eyes On Yellen After US Futures, Euro Stocks Rebound On Latest French Polls

World stocks pulled back from all time highs, and European bourses initially followed U.S. futures and Asian shares lower, however both European risk sentiment as well as E-Minis rebounded after an Odoxa poll showed Macron overtaking Le Pen in the 1st round for the first time, and that the addition of Juppe instead of Fillon may see a 2nd round run-off between Macron vs Juppe, leading to a slump in Bund futures to session lows, and a bounce in European stocks.

Frontrunning: March 2

  • Data-Dependent Yellen Running Out of Reasons to Hold Rates Still (BBG)
  • Dollar rises, global stocks hold highs on March Fed rate hike bets (Reuters)
  • Pelosi calls on Sessions to quit after Post discloses Russia contacts (Reuters)
  • Euro-Area Inflation Hits 2 Percent as ECB Debates Policy (BBG)
  • Snap IPO Values Company at Twice Facebook’s Multiple  (BBG)
  • SEC advisory committee to question Snap's transparency for investors (Reuters)

Snap IPO To Price At $17, Above Range, Valuing Company At $24 Billion

Snap is set to price its initial public offering at $17 a share. That would value the parent of the popular disappearing-message app Snapchat at nearly $24 billion, above the $19.5-$22.3 billion valuation targeted initially by the company, suggesting strong investor demand. At that valuation, Snap would be the biggest U.S.-listed IPO since Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. debuted in 2014.