Credit Suisse

Here Are The Winners And Losers From Trump's "Border Tax Adjustment"

Potential Winners: Companies with a majority of their input costs contained within the U.S; Potentially lower tax rate of 20% on sales and full deduction for input costs; U.S. Exporters: as export revenues are not subject to U.S. tax.
Potential Losers:Products, services, and intangibles imported into the U.S.; Automakers, Oil and Gas, to Retailers can be impacted; U.S. Multinationals that have relied on aggressive tax planning to shift earning overseas.

Hedge Fund Net Short Exposure Drops To Lowest On Record

If you can't beat em, join em... at least that seems to be the mantra of long-short hedge fund managers who, after underperforming the S&P consistently over the past 8 years, have decided to ditch their shorts, sending net exposures soaring.

Party Like The Dow Is 19,999: US Futures Dip As Global Currencies Stumble; Oil Down, Gold Up

European, Asian stocks fall and U.S. equity-index futures traded mixed on Monday with fresh memories of the Dow Jones rising to under 1 point of 20,000 on Friday. The dollar has rebounded on fresh geopolitical concerns, while the pound extends its decline from Friday and has slide to 10 week lows on a Sunday interview from Theresa May which suggested a "Hard Brexit" may be in the cards.

An Angry Japan Responds To Trump's Toyota Taunts

Japanese government officials pushed back against Donald Trump’s criticism of Toyota as the attack on the country’s most powerful corporate name sent shockwaves across Japan Inc.

What Wall Street Expects From Today's Payrolls Reports

With all eyes likely on wage growth indications in the subtext of tomorrow's payrolls report (following The Fed Minutes' comments on full employment), Goldman Sachs is forecasting a better-than-expected 0.3% rebound in average hourly earnings (helped by more favorable calendar effects) and a better-than-expected 180k payrolls print (albeit with a small rise in the unemployment rate). However, they are careful to note that any downside can be blamed on "a considerable drop in temperatures."

Peso Plunges To Record Low After Trump Tweet

The Mexican Peso is plunging once again this morning - very close to all-time record lows - as fears spread that Ford's decision yesterday may become the norm following president-elect Trump's tweet that "this is just the beginning."

RBC Explains What Time To Expect Today's Pension Fund Sell Orders

Expect mechanical pension asset-rebalancing into bonds from stocks (on acct of massive relative performance gap MTD / QTD), most-clearly evidenced by the programmatic ~ half-hour long selling-waves seen in SPX at 9:35am, 11:55am and 3:35pm.  Expect this flow to continue through the new year, as market liquidity simply is not deep enough to ‘take it.’

The Santa Claus Rally Has Started: A Quick Primer On What To Expect

Since 1928, the S&P 500 has averaged a 1.7% gain and traded higher 77% (68 out of 88 years) of the time through this seven-day period, vs. a 0.2% average gain and a 56% success rate during any seven-day period. This year’s “Santa Clock” started December 23rd and ends January 4th.

Dave Collum's 2016 Year In Review - "And Then Things Got Really Weird..."

"Markets don’t have a purpose any more - they just reflect whatever central planners want them to. Why wouldn’t it lead to the biggest collapse? My strategy doesn’t require that I’m right about the likelihood of that scenario. Logic dictates to me that it’s inevitable..."

Frontrunning: December 23

  • Berlin market attack suspect killed in Italy (Reuters)
  • Tunisian Suspect Had a History of Criminal Activity, Extremism (WSJ)
  • Hijacked Libyan plane lands in Malta with 118 on board (Reuters)
  • Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse Settle U.S. Probes as Barclays Sued (BBG)
  • Italy Sets Up Fund to Help Troubled Banks (WSJ)

Futures Unchanged In Thin Pre-Holiday Tape; Italian Bank Bailout Lifts European Shares

European stocks halted two days of declines, with the Stoxx 600 fractionally in the green and Italy’s bonds climbing after Monte Paschi requested a bailout and Italy pledged to provide support for its other ailing lenders. S&P futures were little changed among extremely thin volumes while Chinese stocks dropped amid concerns on higher borrowing costs.

Credit Suisse Settles With DOJ For $5.3 Billion; Will Pay $2.5 Billion Civil Penalty

Credit Suisse agreed to pay $5.28 billion to resolve a U.S. investigation into its business in mortgage-backed securities as officials work through a backlog of crisis-era bank cases. The Swiss lender will pay a $2.48 billion civil penalty and $2.8 billion in relief for homeowners and communities hit by the collapse in home prices, it said in a statement Friday.

In Rare Move, US Sues Barclays For Mortgage Securities Fraud

The market was waiting for the DOJ to announce the long-awaited settlement with Deutsche Bank today. Instead, it got news of a surprise lawsuit filed by the DOJ which sued Barclays after failing to settle a long-running probe into the UK bank's involvement in pre-crisis mortgage fraud.