Credit Suisse

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Frontrunning: March 20





  • Clinton Charity Tapped Foreign Friends (WSJ)
  • Dollar Set for Worst Week Since ’13; S&P Futures Rise (BBG)
  • Shale Producers Have Found Another Lifeline: Shareholders (BBG)
  • BOJ Kuroda says no sign of 'currency war' brewing in world (Reuters)
  • Fed Is Pushing and Pulling on Rates Riddle (WSJ
  • Brent oil falls towards $54 on OPEC output, Iran (Reuters)
  • Iran Talks Stall Over Ending of Sanctions (WSJ)
 
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Here Is Why The Fed Can't Hike Rates By Even 0.25%





the next time someone asks "why is Yellen so terrified of even the smallest possible rate hike", show them this chart above and explain that the Fed vividly remembers what heppened when LTCM blew up. What the Fed doesn't want, is not one but one thousand LTCMs going off at exactly the same time in what is now the world's most levered trade...

 
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Frontrunning: March 18





  • Hilsenrath: Fed to Markets: No More Promises (WSJ)
  • Fed set to ditch 'patient' rate vow as it eyes U.S., world growth (Reuters)
  • Fannie, Freddie could need another bailout (Reuters)
  • Alibaba Stock-Sale Lockup Is Ending (WSJ)
  • Netanyahu Sweeps Aside Herzog’s Challenge to Win Israel Vote (BBG)
  • Oil Bonds Lose Investors $7 Billion in 10 Days (BBG)
  • There’s a mysterious $1.1 trillion in spending cuts in the House GOP’s budget (WaPo)
  • ECB's Celebration of Its New $1.4 Billion Tower Is Spoiled by Protesters (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: March 17





  • Israelis vote as 'King Bibi's' reign hangs in the balance (Reuters), Factbox: Main candidates in Israel's election (Reuters)
  • Iran Can Add Million Barrels a Day of Oil If Sanctions Halt (BBG)
  • Kremlin rules out handing back Crimea to Ukraine (Reuters)
  • Saudi Arabia Needs More Oil to Feed Local Refinery Expansion (BBG)
  • How Lafarge’s CEO Went From Holcim Merger Architect to Obstacle (BBG)
  • When Yellen Gets Less Predictable She’s Getting Back to Normal (BBG)
  • Iran nuclear talks intensify as sides face tough issues (Reuters)
  • Debunking $1.4 Trillion Europe Debt Myth in Post-Heta Age (BBG)
 
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The Best "Democracy" Money Can Buy: For Every Dollar Spent Influencing US Politics, Corporations Get $760 Back





Between 2007 and 2012, 200 of America’s most politically active corporations spent a combined $5.8 Billion on federal lobbying and campaign contributions. What they gave pales compared to what those same corporations got: $4.4 Trillion in federal business and support. Here is the visual representation of this stunning finding: for every dollar spent on influencing politics, the nation’s most politically active corporations received $760 from the government.

 
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Frontrunning: March 13





  • Again as first reported here: Record U.S. Oil Glut May Fill Storage, Cut Prices (BBG)
  • IEA sees renewed pressure on oil prices as glut worsens (Reuters)
  • No EU unanimity on renewing Russia economic sanctions (Reuters)
  • Tsipras says Greece doing its part in euro zone deal (Reuters)
  • ECB Set to Buy Fewer Bonds as Price Gains Ease Crunch (BBG)
  • These Americans Are Getting Rich Trading Derivatives Banned in the U.S. (BBG)
  • U.S. 2015 profits forecast to grow 1.7 percent; oil, dollar are concerns (Reuters) - in a month this will say "decline"
  • Manhunt for shooting suspects grinds on in Ferguson, Missouri (Reuters)
 
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Venezuela Begins Liquidating Its Gold





In an attempt to secure some stability, i.e., funds, now that Venezuela is no longer able to tap Chinese bailout loans as last-recourse funding, Reuters reported that Venezuela's central bank is in talks with Wall Street banks to create a gold swap that would allow it to monetize some $1.5 billion of the metal held as international reserves, according to government sources familiar with the operation.  Under the swap, the central bank would provide 1.4 million troy ounces in exchange for cash.

 
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Frontrunning: March 11





  • Fed Likely to Remove ‘Patient’ Barrier for Rate Increase as Soon as June (Hilsenrath) - which year?
  • Clinton says used personal email account for convenience (Reuters)
  • Euro sinks to 12-year lows as yield gap grows (Reuters)
  • Get Ready for Oil Deals: Shale Is Going on Sale (BBG)
  • EIA raises 2015 US oil production forecast, cuts 2016 outlook (Reuters)
  • How Falling Oil Prices Are Hindering Iraq’s Ability to Fight Islamic State (WSJ)
  • China economic data weaker than expected, fuels policy easing bets (Reuters)
  • ECB ‘Chasing Own Tail’ as Bond Rates Turn Negative, SocGen Says (BBG)
  • Swiss makers quietly gear up with smartwatches of their own (Reuters)
 
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Frontrunning: March 10





  • Dollar at 12-year peak versus euro, emerging markets spooked (Reuters)
  • CIA sought to hack Apple iPhones from earliest days (Reuters)
  • Draghi Urged Greece to Allow Troika Back Before It’s Late (BBG)
  • Brent crude dips below $58 on strong dollar and supply (Reuters)
  • Credit Suisse replaces CEO Dougan with Prudential's Thiam (Reuters)
  • More "distressed" energy M&A: Verisk buys Wood Mackenzie for £1.85bn (FT)
  • Prepare for a surge in defaults: Investors Are Buying Stocks and Bonds From Energy Producers Amid Oil Price Drop (WSJ)
  • Private equity executive ordered to pay £72m to ex-wife (FT)
  • Democratic donors unfazed by Hillary Clinton's use of private email (Reuters)
  • Expensive Hepatitis C Medications Drive Prescription-Drug Spending (WSJ)
  • 'ISIS Hackers' Almost Certainly Not ISIS Hackers (NBC)
 
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What Wall Street, And Twitter, Expect From Today's Payrolls Number





The one thing to note about today's "decisive" jobs number, is that most are scrambling to warn that they really have no idea what it will be due to yet another unprecedented instance of cold weather and snow in the winter (see "Goldman Warns Snow May Leads To Lower Jobs Number, But Snowstorms Will Result In Higher Wages"). The reality is that, based on recent ADP trends and the shale patch reality and recent ISM/PMI surveys, today's NFP should print well below 200,000 (unless some 100,000 bartenders were hired in the deep of winter), not where Wall Street consensus expects it, at 235,000 (on a range of 150K to 370K.

 
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Frontrunning: March 6





  • 5 Things to Watch in February’s Jobs Report (WSJ)
  • Draghi Declares Victory for Bond-Buying Before It Starts (BBG)
  • Apple Pay Sign-Ups Get Tougher as Banks Respond to Fraud (WSJ)
  • As World’s Hottest Economy Unravels, Nigerians Feel the Squeeze (BBG)
  • EU discontent over French budget deal's 'political bazaar' (Reuters)
  • Foreign Takeovers See U.S. Losing Tax Revenue (WSJ)
  • Goldman Shareholders’ Hope for Bigger Payout Dashed by Fed (BBG)
  • Europe Stocks Headed for 31% Surge This Year Amid QE, Citi Says (BBG)
  • Dollar revs up for jobs data, euro bonds rally on ECB (Reuters)
 
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Frontrunning: March 5





  • China Lowers Growth Target to About 7% (WSJ)
  • Obesity Is Hurting the U.S. Economy in Surprising Ways (BBG)
  • Embattled Hillary Clinton urges State Department to release emails (Reuters)
  • Washington Strips New York Fed’s Power (WSJ)
  • U.S. Supreme Court split over Obamacare challenge (Reuters)
  • Citigroup Loses $800 Million as It Exits Turkey’s Akbank (BBG)
  • Justice Who Once Tried to Kill Obamacare Now Potential Savior (BBG)
  • Buyers of Espírito Santo Debt Face Financial Uncertainty (WSJ)
 
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Frontrunning: March 2





  • Hilsenrath: Fed Ushering in New Era of Uncertainty on Rates (WSJ)
  • Is Supreme Court's chief justice ready to take down ObamaCare? (The Hill)
  • Netanyahu arrives in U.S., signs of easing of tensions over Iran speech (Reuters)
  • Nemtsov Murder Fuels Suspicion, Fails to Spur Russia Selloff (BBG)
  • ECB uncomfortable with leading role in Greek funding drama (Reuters)
  • Video shows Los Angeles police shooting homeless man dead (Reuters)
  • Iraq Military Begins Campaign to Reclaim Tikrit (WSJ)
  • How Billionaires in London Use Secret Luxury Homes to Hide Assets (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: February 27





  • Central Banks With Negative Rates Spur Question of How Low to Go (BBG)
  • DHS to keep running: Congress edges toward domestic security funding patch (Reuters)
  • Setbacks for Tsipras Stir Discord in Greek Ruling Party (BBG)
  • Greece’s Challenge: Appeasing Its Creditors and Its Population (WSJ)
  • Buffett, a cheerleader for America, takes his checkbook abroad (Reuters)
  • Oil’s Big Swings Are the New Normal: Market has rarely been more volatile (WSJ)
  • Ukraine Left Behind as Russian Stock Gains Are Unmatched (BBG)
  • Brent rises to $61, set for first monthly gain since July (Reuters)
 
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Frontrunning: February 26





  • Goldman Employees Reaped $2 Billion From 2008 Options Last Year (BBG)
  • On Bush turf, Obama blames immigration woes on Republicans (Reuters)
  • Tougher Internet rules to hit cable, telecoms companies (Reuters)
  • Russia's Gazprom says can exempt rebel-held areas from Ukraine gas contract (Reuters)
  • Allianz Says Pimco Seeing ‘Substantially’ Lower Outflows (BBG)
  • Merkel Faces Stepped-Up Dissent on Greek Bailout in Party (BBG)
  • SEC Probes Companies’ Treatment of Whistleblowers (WSJ)
  • 2-Year Trek From Turf to Table Delays Cheaper U.S. Beef (BBG)
  • Turkish jets violate Greek air space (Kathimerini)
 
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