- Twitter's IPO to Make Market Debut (WSJ); Twitter Raises $1.82 Billion, Pricier Value Than Facebook (BBG)
- Worried Senators Press Obama on Health Law (WSJ)
- Greenspan Says Yellen Was His Guide to Economics Research at Fed (BBG)
- European Central Bank seen holding rates despite inflation tumble (Reuters)
- Wall St. Bonuses Over All Are Predicted to Rise 5 to 10% (NYT)
- Cautious consumers seen curbing U.S. economic growth (Reuters)
- China Grants U.S. Investors Indirect Access to Its Stock Markets (WSJ)
- Higher Tax Rates Give Top U.S. Earners Year-End Headaches (BBG)
- Iran Loses Nuclear Leverage as World Ignores Export Drop (BBG)
- NYPD Commissioner Ray Kelly in the running for JPMorgan job (Post)
Credit Suisse's head of US rates, Carl Lantz, is a usual suspect when it comes to dispensing bond market commentary. What we did not expect him to do, is also analyze last night's off-cycle political results. He does both in the note below: "Perhaps this is the start of the Democrat version of the Tea Party - both are reactions in some measure to widening income inequality and a frustration with politics as usual. The proposed solutions couldn't be more different, however, and it seems that despite talk of a victory for moderates the country remains very polarized"... and ... "we prefer steepeners into the refunding auctions next week - announcement at 8:30AM today. We wrote this up on Monday and have seen interest in the trade which has moved about 1.5bps in our favor. Steepening during the sell-off yesterday was a reasonable indication that supply is starting to weigh as generally speaking 7s and 10s lead moves to higher yields."
This morning US futures are an unfamiliar shade of green, as the market is poised for its first red open in recent memory (then again the traditional EURJPY pre-open ramp is still to come). One of the reasons blamed for the lack of generic monetary euphoria is that China looked likely to buck the trend for more monetary policy support. New Premier Li Keqiang said in a speech published in full late on Monday that adding extra stimulus would be more difficult since printing new money would cause inflation. "His comments are different from what people were expecting. This is a shift from what he said earlier this year about bottom-line growth," said Hong Hao, chief strategist at Bank of Communications International. Asian shares struggled as a result slipping about 0.2 percent, though Japan's Nikkei stock average bounced off its lows and managed a 0.2 percent gain. However, in a world in which the monetary tsunami torch has to be passed every few months, this will hardly be seen as supportive of the "bad news is good news" paradigm we have seen for the past 5 years.
Just as Friday ended with a last minute meltup, there continues to be nothing that can stop Bernanke's runaway liquidity train, and the overnight trading session has been one of a continuing slow melt up in risk assets, which as expected merely ape the Fed's balance sheet to their implied fair year end target of roughly 1900. The data in the past 48 hours was hot but not too hot, with China Non-mfg PMI rising from 55.4 to 56.3 a 14 month high (and entirely made up as all other China data) - hot but not too hot to concern the PBOC additionally over cutting additional liquidity - while the Eurozone Mfg PMI came as expected at 51.3 up from 51.1 prior driven by rising German PMI (up from 51.1 to 51.7 on 51.5 expected), declining French PMI (from 49.8 to 49.1, exp. 49.4), declining Italian PMI (from 50.8 to 50.7, exp. 51.0), Spain up (from 50.7 to 50.9, vs 51.0 expected), and finally the UK construction PMI up from 58.9 to 59.4.
- US admits surveillance on foreign governments ‘reached too far’ (FT)
- He must be so proud: Obama halted NSA spying on IMF and World Bank headquarters (RTRS)
- Obamacare website gets new tech experts; oversight pressure grows (Reuters)
- R.B.S. to Split Off $61 Billion in Loans Into Internal ‘Bad Bank’ (NYT)
- Draghi’s Deflation Risk Complicates Recovery (BBG)
- Abenomics: Nissan slashes full-year profit forecast 15% (FT)
- Credit Suisse Dismisses London Trader Over 'Unusual Trading' Losses (WSJ)
- RBS avoids break-up with 38 billion pounds 'internal bad bank' (Reuters)
- Twitter Said to Attract More Than Enough Interest for IPO (BBG)
Earlier this afternoon, it was Steve Cohen's final fall from grace. Now, Bloomberg reports that Brazil's one time super billionaire, and now negativeworthaire, Eike Batista, whose sprawling petroleum empire was once valued in the tens of billions, is set to file for bankruptcy tomorrow.
- BRAZIL'S OGX SAID TO PLAN BANKRUPTCY PROTECTION FILING TOMORROW
We are confident that just like in Europe, there is no bank with any exposure to either OGX, Brazil, or whatever potential intercreditor avalanche will tear down many more Brazilian companies once this first insolvent domino finally tips over.
While the biggest problem facing US bands is lack of demand (and supply, since it is far more profitable for banks to "invest" reserves in risk assets using excess deposits as initial margin) for loans, Japan doesn't have such a problem. At least not, when the loans are made to "gangsters" such as the Yakuza. AFP reports that executives at Mizuho Financial Group, one of Japan's largest banks, knew the firm was doing business with gangsters but failed to stop it, a panel said Monday, as Japan's finance minister slammed the banking giant over the affair. The bank has been in the public spotlight since it emerged last month that it processed hundreds of loans worth about $2 million for the country's notorious yakuza crime syndicates. And while in the US the punishment for banks caught in criminal behavior is a simple slap on the wrist and a settlement paid using TARP money, in Japan bank CEO still have some semblance of honor. Bloomberg adds that in the aftermath of the revelations, Mizuho's president Yasuhiro Sato will give up six months of pay ahead of more penalties, and will resign his Chairmanship at Mizuho Bank while keeping the post at the parent company. Some 52 other current executives will also be penalized.
Sugar may be sweet, but excess consumption leaves a bitter aftertaste: millions of people worldwide are affected by type II diabetes or obesity, costing the global healthcare system billions of dollars every year. As the Credit Suisse Research Institute's 2013 study "Sugar: Consumption at a Crossroad" found, close to 90% of general practitioners in the US, Europe and Asia believe excess sugar consumption is linked to the sharp growth in these health problems.
- Central Banks Drop Tightening Talk as Easy Money Goes On (BBG)
- More Democrats voice Obamacare concerns as website blame goes around (Reuters)
- Contractors Point Fingers Over Health-Law Website (WSJ)
- Jury Decides Against BofA on 'Hustle' Program (WSJ)
- Credit Suisse to overhaul interest rates trading business (FT)
- Home Builders Target Higher End (WSJ)
- The Many Lives of Iron Mountain (NYer)
- Busy tourist season nudges Spanish unemployment lower (Reuters)
- Morgan Stanley Joins BofA in Broker Recruiting Truce (BBG)
- Ending World’s Longest Nonstop Flight Adds Five Hours (BBG)
In addition to the already noted repeat spike in Chinese overnight repo rates as the PBOC refuses to inject liquidity for nearly a week offsetting the "news" of a better than expected HSBC PMI, the other kay datapoints to hit in the overnight session were various European PMIs which were broadly lower across the board. Of note being the French, which missed both the Manufacturing Index (49.4 vs 50.1 expected, down from 49.8) and the Services (50.2 vs 51.0 expected, down from 51.0) and Germany, which missed in Services (52.3 vs 53.7 expected, same as September), while modestly beating Manufacturing at 51.5 vs 51.4 expected, up from 51.1 last. On a blended basis, the Composite Flash PMI fell from 52.2 to 51.5, against the consensus expectation of a modest rise (Cons: 52.4). Today's correction brings to a halt a series of six consecutive monthly rises in the Euro area composite PMI.
Asia Slides As China Overnight Repo Soars On Fears Of Another Domestic "Tapering" Episode, Preparations For Bank Loan DefaultsSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 10/23/2013 04:48 -0500
Following the past two days of reports in which we noted that both the broader Chinese housing market was overheating and reflating at an unprecedented pace as 69 of 70 cities posted Y/Y home price gains, while a separate report showed a blistering 12% price increase in Shanghai new homes in one week, it was only a matter of time before the PBOC resumed its tighter policy posturing, which infamously sent short-term repo rates to 25% briefly in June and nearly led to a collapse of the already fragile local banking system, in an attempt to pretend it is still in control of what is now the world's fastest growing credit bubble and of course, Chinese inflation which is now impacted not only by record domestic credit production but by hot money flows from both the Fed and the BOJ. Predictably enough, as reported overnight by the Global Times, the PBOC suspended its open market operations Tuesday without injecting money as usual, a move that analysts said was in response to a surge in foreign capital inflows in September. And just like the last time the PBOC proceeded to "surprise" the market with its own tapering intentions, overnight funding rates soared, with the one-day repo rate surged 67 bps, most since June 20, to 3.7561%; while the seven-day repo rate rose 42 bps, most since July 29, to 4.0000%. This, however, brings us to the far more important story, one reported by Bloomberg overnight, and one which we predicted is inevitable over a year ago: namely that the Chinese banks, filled tothe gills with bad and non-performing debt, are finally preparing for the inevitable default onslaught and as a result have suddenly tripled their debt write offs in what can be best described as preparing for an avalanche of defaults.
Selling both the rumor and the news turns out not to work... but we cannot yet say whether a trend change is definitely in the bag. However, considering how absolutely dismal sentiment on gold is, considering the many similarities to the 2008 'retest' that could be observed recently (back then, gold was also declared 'dead' by the mainstream) and given the fact that for a change, the gold market has not acted in the way that was widely expected, it continues to make sense to look for more signs of a trend change to emerge. Ideally declines should continue to be kept in check by support at $1275, while any rally that manages to exceed the $1350 level on a closing basis and confirmed by the gold stock indexes can probably be interpreted as a sign that the short to medium term trend has finally reversed for good.
- Headline of the day: U.S. Risks Joining 1933 Germany in Pantheon of Deadbeat Defaults (BBG)
- As Senate wrestles over debt ceiling, Obama stays out of sight (Reuters)
- The "Truckers Ride for the Constitution" that threatened to gum up traffic in the capital was a dud as of Friday afternoon (WSJ)
- China New Yuan Loans Top Estimates as Money-Supply Growth Slows (BBG)
- Vegetable prices fuel Chinese inflation (FT)
- China Slowing Power Use Growth Points To Weaker Output Data (MNI)
- London Wealthy Leave for Country Life as Prices Rise (BBG)
- Gulf oil production hits record (FT)
- Every year like clockwork, analysts start out bizarrely optimistic about future results, then “walk down” their forecasts (WSJ)
- Weak Exports Show Limits of China’s Growth Model (WSJ)
When on October 1, fallen billionaire Eike Batista's OGX Petroleo & Gas, missed a $45 million bond coupon payment, some were surprised but most had seen the writing on the wall. After all, Brazil's second largest oil company after Petrobras, and the crowning jewel of Batista's EBX Group, had been under the microscope of investors and certainly creditors (and if it wasn't it certainly should have been) after oil deposits that Batista had valued at $1 trillion turned out to be commercial failures. And so the countdown to the inevitable bankruptcy filing began. Overnight, Bloomberg reports that the wait should not be long (in fact it may coincide with the default of that other insolvent mega-creditor: the United States), and will mostly certainly take place before the end of the month, following the retention of bankruptcy specialist law firm Quinn Emanuel.
Goldman, which is the hedge fund best known for originating prop order flow in the opposite direction of what its sellside "research" team tells its clients to do (see Tom Stolper), has never been clearer on gold: "Gold is slam dunk sell for next year because the U.S. economy will extend its recovery after lawmakers resolve stalemates over the nation’s budget and debt ceiling, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s Jeffrey Currie said." How the economy will expand, especially with the Fed supposedly tapering (even though everyone saw what happened to markets and the economy at the mere mention of "tapering" the last time around) and eventually ending QE - the only driver of upside market momentum in the past 5 years - was not discussed. What was, however, clear is that Goldman will continue buying all the gold its clients have to sell until the bailed out hedge fund's price target of $1,050/ounce is hit.