As one veteran trader told us, this massive short-squeeze came "out of nowhere" seemingly driven by oil-headline-induced algo momentum ignition. Goldman's "Most Shorted" stocks are up a stunning 6% in the last 2 days - the biggest 2-day surge since Oct 2015 as Credit Suisse noted earlier there is a "lot of pain being felt out there on the short side." However, 5 of the last 6 times that shorts have been squeezed this much this fast, stocks have stalled dramatically...
S&P 500 (June) now up at our 2070/80 bull target - the measured objective from the base and price resistance. With potential trend resistance not far above at 2090, we continue to look for sellers here. Russell 2000 stays trapped in its near-term range... Concern, as always, is that market positioning remains short, and if we start taking out resistance levels, we could see a big short stop out...
Something ugly this way comes. As we noted last week, despite proclamations that any weakness in US spending or economic data is merely seasonal or transitory, BofA's credit and debit card spending data revealed that sales were notably weak. Today we get further confirmation of what Retail ETF investors have been seeing for a while as Johnson-Redbook reported a 2.8% plunge in Same-Store-Sales - the worst start to an April since 2005.
ZIRP, NIRP, QE, Bank Collapse and Helicopters Coming Too Late - The Lehman Effect Hits Europe - Hard!Submitted by Reggie Middleton on 04/11/2016 12:20 -0400
More evidence than any hopium-induced high could ever hope to obscure. The man that called Bear Stearns, Lehman, Countrywide and WaMu collapses starts to call out names in Europe.
Things are going from bad to worse for the efficacy of the grand - and failed from the beginning - experiment known as Abenomics. As Bloomberg reports, Larry Fink's Blackrock has changed its stance on investing in Japan, and joins Citigroup, Credit Suisse, and LGT Capital Partners, the $50 billion asset manager based in Switzerland in their decision to head for the exits. Ironically, Blackrock's decision comes only a few months after blogging about "The Case for Investing in Japan", in which they explicitly cited increased demand for Japanese stocks.
As of this moment, various European banks but most prominently Deutsche Bank as well as Credit Suisse and RBS, have been crashing back to lows hit in early February and then all the way back to the March 2009 "the world is ending" lows. The problem is that now that global central banks are more focused on appeasing China and keeping the USD weaker (by way of a dovish, non-data dependent Fed), the pain for Europe (and Japan), and their currencies, and their banking sector, will likely only get worse. This is precisely the case proposed by Francesco Filia of Fasanara Capital, who explains below his "Short European Bank Thesis."
Ever since the USDJPY breached the 110 support level three days ago for the first time in 17 months, the pressure on this all important FX carry cross has been rising, and then overnight, following the latest bout of recurring and increasingly ignored jawboning by various Japanese officials, the Yen soared, with the USDJPY plunging first below 109 and then moments ago dropping as low as 108.02 before rebounding modestly, dragging US equity futures lower with it.
US and UK – Not Panama – Biggest Tax Havens for Money Laundering Criminals
- Panama Papers: Biggest Banks Are Top Users of Offshore Services (WSJ)
- Panama Papers probes opened, China limits access to news on leaks (Reuters)
- Credit Suisse CEO Distances Bank From ‘Panama Papers’ (WSJ)
- Fed's Evans says market more pessimistic on U.S. rate hikes (Reuters)
- IMF's Lagarde Says Risks to Weak Global Recovery Are Increasing (BBG)
The market's slumberous levitation of the past month, in which yesterday's -0.3% drop was the second largest in 4 weeks and in which the market had gone for 15 consecutive days without a 1% S&P 500 move (in March 2015 the sasme streak ended at day 16) may be about to end, after an overnight session, the polar opposite of yesterday's smooth sailing, which has seen a sudden return of global risk off mood.
Volatility (VIX) is now at its lowest level since before the August sell-off last summer yet CS Fear Barometer remains elevated leaving the spread between the two options-market-based indicators is at its widest ever. With the VIX ETF complex accounting for a record 85% of the outstanding open interest in the VIX futures market, the tail and the dog are now wagging each other in increasingly unstable trends, as Goldman sums up, the options market seems to be questioning the quality of the rally and continues to price in more adverse outcomes.
In a quiet start to the week following last week's surprisingly strong rebound which followed a stronger than expected jobs report (perhaps to demonstrate that good news is once again good news), Japan stocks continued to sink as the USDJPY dropped to fresh lows, while commodities declined for a fifth day as the supply glut from crude to copper weighed on prices, dragging down commodity currencies. European equities rose, rebounding from a one-month low.
Key economic releases for the coming week include the ISM non-manufacturing report on Wednesday. There are several scheduled speeches from Fed officials this week. Fed Chair Yellen will take part in a discussion with former Fed Chairs on Thursday.
The "smart money" have been net sellers of US stocks for the ninth consecutive week.
Investors are positioning for a market reversal based on leveraged positions in volatility funds.
Oil bulls never jumped on board the latest rally.
The CS Fear Barometer remains elevated