• Steve H. Hanke
    05/04/2016 - 08:00
    Authored by Steve H. Hanke of The Johns Hopkins University. Follow him on Twitter @Steve_Hanke. A few weeks ago, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) sprang a surprise. It announced that a...

Credit Suisse

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Everything’s Deflating And Nobody Seems To Notice





As long as politicians and media keep talking about disinflation and central bank inflation targets, and all they talk actually about is consumer prices, we will all fail to acknowledge what’s happening right before our very eyes. That is, the system is imploding. Deflating. Deleveraging. And before that is done, there can and will be no recovery. Indeed, this current trend has a very long way to go down. So far down that you will have a very hard time recognizing the world, and its economic system, on the other side of the process. But then again, you have a hard time recognizing the world for what it is on this side as well.

 
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Frontrunning: October 22





  • ECB Haunted by Paradox as Draghi Weighs Risk of QE Signaling (BBG)
  • At odds with Republicans, Hillary Clinton to testify on Benghazi (Reuters)
  • House tees up conservative plans to raise debt limit (Hill)
  • U.S., Russia to Meet at Syria Conference to Discuss Crisis (WSJ)
  • Putin Gains Record Support Among Russians Over Syria, Poll Shows (BBG)
  • China Plans 2020 Deadline for Dismantling Capital Controls (BBG)
  • Nyrstar Drops the Most on Record as Mining Hit by Metal Rout (BBG)
 
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What Will Mario Draghi Announce Tomorrow: Here Is What Wall Street Thinks





Tomorrow morning Mario Draghi is widely expected to if not announce an extension, or expansion, of the ECB's QE program, than to at least jawbone sufficiently, and push the EURUSD lower from its recently anchored level in the 1.10-1.20 range. But what are the specifics of Draghi's announcement: will he merely expand the monetization limit per security, as he did in early September, will he increase the universe of eligibile securities, or will he simply extend the maturity of the non-open ended QE from September 2016 to some indefinite date? The following list, courtesy of Bloomberg, summarizes what the sellside universe believes Draghi will unveil in just under 12 hours.

 
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With Just $10 "You're Wealthier Than 25% Of Americans"





If you’ve no debts and have $10 in your pocket you have more wealth than 25% of Americans. More than 25% of Americans have collectively that is.”

 
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Goodbye Middle Class: 51% Of All American Workers Make Less Than $30,000 A Year





We just got more evidence that the middle class in America is dying. According to brand new numbers that were just released by the Social Security Administration, 51 percent of all workers in the United States make less than $30,000 a year.

 
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Frontrunning: October 21





  • Global Stock Markets Edge Higher Though Global Growth Concerns Weigh (WSJ)
  • Nikkei up 1.9% because Japan export growth slows sharply, raising fears of recession (Reuters)
  • Saudis Risk Draining Financial Assets in 5 Years, IMF Says (BBG)
  • Syria's Assad flies to Moscow to thank Russia's Putin for air strikes (Reuters)
  • US Prosecutor Preet Bharara Probing Daily Fantasy-Sports Business (WSJ)
  • Syrian army denies Russian ground forces fighting in Syria (Reuters)
 
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It's Back To The Future As Stocks, Futures Jump On The Latest Abysmal Economic News; China Tremors Return





26 years ago, today was envisioned as day when cars flew, holographic movies were box office hits, hoverboards roamed, and people were fired by fax. None of the happened. Instead the only "back to the future" moment this morning is a deja vu one we have seen every day for the past 7 years: bad economic news leading to surging stocks.

 
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Key Events In The Coming Week: Little Macro, Lots Of Micro





It is a generally quiet week on the economic front, with updates mostly on the housing front where following today's euphoric NAHB Housing Market Index, we have housing start and permits, blaims and existing home sales. Elsewhere, Fed speakers continue to speak, with Lacker, Dudley (again) and Powell confusing traders once more. The big news this week is earnings as some of the most prominent companies report, including IBM, Verizon, GM, Ebay, Coke, Boeing, Amazin, AT&T, CAT, Microsoft and P&G.

 
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End The Fed





There are two parties to robbery – the taker and the takee. We have seen what happened to the victims. They are too busy picking through trash bins to go to the Walmart website. But what about the takers? They are busy too – lobbying… eating foie gras and caviar… and offering to save the world with increasingly radical monetary policies. It is time to undo the Fed’s control of the financial system. Let takees get the interest they are entitled to. And let the takers get what they’ve got coming to them.

 
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With Traders "Completely Lost", Here Are The Consensus And Contrarian Trades





Credit Suisse has released a reported titled "Client perspectives: lost and bearish" in which it lists the 12 bricks of the global wall of worry and adds that "this is the first time that we have come across so many people who say they are completely 'lost' in the current environment." So, to help out those who just have to be in this market yet share the same total confusion, here is BofA listing what the two key trading camps in the market: "the consensus" and "the contrarians" are doing.

 
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As Worldwide Sales Collapse, VW's Dieselgate Scandal Could Cost Up To $87 Billion In Total





"The market does not appear to be discounting negative knock-on effects. The outcome for recall costs and fines is unclear and largely depends on the engine performance post repair," said a Credit Suisse analyst in its report on the scandal. Estimates from Credit Suisse peg the costs of Dieselgate at a worst-case scenarios of $87 billion. This would make the VW scandal could be even bigger than Enron Scandal and BP Deepwater Scandal combined.

 
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Fastenal CEO: "The Industrial Environment Is In A Recession - I Don’t Care What Anybody Says!"





"First off, the premise of the question, I would argue that anybody selling into the industrial market is not selling into a non-recessionary environment. The industrial environment is in a recession - I don’t care what anybody says, because nobody knows that market better than we do. You know, we touch 250,000 active customers a month.

 
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The "1%" Own Half The World's Assets: The Stunning Chart





Credit Suisse is out with the latest edition of its Global Wealth report and although the results are not entirely surprising, they are worth highlighting. Three standouts: i) the rise in the value of financial assets is most certainly contributing to an increase in global inequality, ii) dollar strength led to the first decline in total global wealth (which fell by $12.4 trillion to $250.1 trillion) since 2007-2008, iii) 0.7% of the world's population own nearly half of the world's wealth while the bottom 71% of the population own just 3%.

 
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Futures Slump After China Imports Plunge, German Sentiment Crashes, UK Enters Deflation





For the past two weeks, the thinking probably went that if only the biggest short squeeze in history and the most "whiplashy" move since 2009 sends stocks high enough, the global economy will forget it is grinding toward recession with each passing day (and that the Fed are just looking for a 2-handle on the S&P and a 1-handle on the VIX before resuming with the rate hike rhetoric). Unfortunately, that's not how it worked out, and overnight we got abysmal economic data first from China, whose imports imploded, then the UK, which posted its first deflation CPI print since April, and finally from Germany, where the ZEW expectation surve tumbled from 12.1 to barely positive, printing at just 1.9 far below the 6.5 expected.

 
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Dell Buys EMC In Record $67BN Deal: Creates "World's Largest Private Integrated Tech Company"





Just when you thought the M&A boom is over after a surge in bond yields that Goldman has repeatedly dubbed as "recessionary", and which will make the debt cost of any funding so high that there is barely any room for execution error, moments ago as had been extensively leaked previously, private Dell announced it would acquire tech giant EMC in a deal valued roughly $67 billion, while maintaining VMWare as a publicly-traded corporation. Good luck with raising the tens of billions in debt the deal will require: our best wish to Barclays, BofA, Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, RBC who will all be underwriting the required debt financing to Dell.

 
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