Credit Suisse

Why Commodities Are Selling Off (And What It Means For Demand)

Every market participant has pondered the shenanigans occurring in many commodities in recent weeks as Iron ore, Rebar, Copper, and Steel prices have all gone parabolic. We warned that this was not real demand-driven but purely credit-fuleed malinvestment here, and today, as Credit Suisse notes, we seem to have got confirmation as these metals are tumbling after China raises margins/commission on metal futures.

Frontrunning: April 21

  • World stocks gain along with oil, clock ticks down to ECB (Reuters)
  • Draghi Expected to Defend ECB in Face of German Criticism (WSJ)
  • Trump, Cruz, Kasich seek to win over Republican leaders at party meeting (Reuters)
  • Donald Trump Plans to Adopt More-Traditional Campaign Tactics (WSJ)
  • Japan, Not Germany, Leads World in Negative-Yield Bonds (BBG)

Futures, Crude Unchanged Ahead Of Draghi As Parabolic Move In Steel, Iron Ore Continues

One day after stocks were this close from hitting new all time highs on what have been either ok earnings, if looking at non-GAAP data, or atrocious earnings, based on GAAP, and where any oil headline is now immediately translated as bullish by the oil algos, so far futures are relatively flat, while European stocks were at their moments ago in anticipation of the latest ECB announcement due out in just one hour.  However, unlike last month's "quad-bazooka", this time the market expects far less from Draghi. “Having pulled put the monetary bazooka in March, the market is sensibly expecting no further policy measures from the ECB,”

"Sleepy" ECB Preview: What Every Bank Thinks Draghi Will Do Tomorrow

Tomorrow's ECB meeting "looks set to be sleepy" according to Saxo Bank's Mads Koefed as Draghi is largely cornered into confirmation he will do "whatever it takes" and some additional details on the corporate bond purchase plan. Most of the sell-side's research suggests the same, as Bloomberg notes, ECB will probably leave the door open for further cuts if needed; but any downside risk for the euro is seen limited, as Draghi stays on hold by reinforcing its dovish stance after the mix of easing measures announced in March with some defense of the efficiency of his policies after recent criticism by Germany.

The Saudi 9/11 Blackmail Explained: The K-Street Lobby Racketeers Have It Covered

U.S. officials have warned of “diplomatic and economic fallout from the [looming 9/11] legislation.” So what sort of economic fallout do they envision? Part of the concern is no doubt related to the impact on global financial markets from a Saudi fire sale, but there’s a potentially even bigger concern at play. Specifically, Saudi Arabia pays Washington insiders an exorbitant amount of money to put the monarchy’s interests ahead of what’s best for the American people.

Futures Wipe Out Most Overnight Losses Following Dramatic Rebound In Crude

Following yesterday's OPEC "production freeze" meeting in Doha which ended in total failure, where in a seemingly last minute change of heart Saudi Arabia and specifically its deputy crown prince bin Salman revised the terms of the agreement demanding Iran participate in the freeze after all knowing well it won't, oil crashed and with it so did the strategy of jawboning for the past 2 months had been exposed for what it was: a desperate attempt to keep oil prices stable and "crush shorts" while global demand slowly picked up.  And whether it is central banks, or chronic BTFDers, just 12 hours after oil opened for trading with a loud crash, the commodity has nearly wiped out all losses, and both brent and WTI were down barely 2%, leading to both European stocks and US equity futures virtually unchanged on the session. 

In Its Second Attempt At Going Public, BATS Prices $253 Million IPO At $19/Share

It's time for try number two. Moments ago BATS announced that it has just priced its second attempt at going public by pricing its (second) initial public offering at a price to the public of $19.00 per share (this time the high end of the range). The size of the offering has been increased from the initially announced 11,200,000 shares of common stock to 13,300,000 shares of common stock.

Biggest Squeeze In 6 Months Sends "Most Shorted" Stocks To 2016 Highs

As one veteran trader told us, this massive short-squeeze came "out of nowhere" seemingly driven by oil-headline-induced algo momentum ignition. Goldman's "Most Shorted" stocks are up a stunning 6% in the last 2 days - the biggest 2-day surge since Oct 2015 as Credit Suisse noted earlier there is a "lot of pain being felt out there on the short side." However, 5 of the last 6 times that shorts have been squeezed this much this fast, stocks have stalled dramatically...

Credit Suisse Is Now A Seller As S&P Hits "Bull Target" Levels, But With A Big Caveat

S&P 500 (June) now up at our 2070/80 bull target - the measured objective from the base and price resistance.  With potential trend resistance not far above at 2090, we continue to look for sellers here. Russell 2000 stays trapped in its near-term range...  Concern, as always, is that market positioning remains short, and if we start taking out resistance levels, we could see a big short stop out...

April Retail Sales Plunge Most Since 2005

Something ugly this way comes. As we noted last week, despite proclamations that any weakness in US spending or economic data is merely seasonal or transitory, BofA's credit and debit card spending data revealed that sales were notably weak. Today we get further confirmation of what Retail ETF investors have been seeing for a while as Johnson-Redbook reported a 2.8% plunge in Same-Store-Sales - the worst start to an April since 2005.