Credit Suisse

The one thing to note about today's "decisive" jobs number, is that most are scrambling to warn that they really have no idea what it will be due to yet another unprecedented instance of cold weather and snow in the winter (see "Goldman Warns Snow May Leads To Lower Jobs Number, But Snowstorms Will Result In Higher Wages"). The reality is that, based on recent ADP trends and the shale patch reality and recent ISM/PMI surveys, today's NFP should print well below 200,000 (unless some 100,000 bartenders were hired in the deep of winter), not where Wall Street consensus expects it, at 235,000 (on a range of 150K to 370K.

• 5 Things to Watch in February’s Jobs Report (WSJ)
• Draghi Declares Victory for Bond-Buying Before It Starts (BBG)
• Apple Pay Sign-Ups Get Tougher as Banks Respond to Fraud (WSJ)
• As World’s Hottest Economy Unravels, Nigerians Feel the Squeeze (BBG)
• EU discontent over French budget deal's 'political bazaar' (Reuters)
• Foreign Takeovers See U.S. Losing Tax Revenue (WSJ)
• Goldman Shareholders’ Hope for Bigger Payout Dashed by Fed (BBG)
• Europe Stocks Headed for 31% Surge This Year Amid QE, Citi Says (BBG)
• Dollar revs up for jobs data, euro bonds rally on ECB (Reuters)

• China Lowers Growth Target to About 7% (WSJ)
• Obesity Is Hurting the U.S. Economy in Surprising Ways (BBG)
• Embattled Hillary Clinton urges State Department to release emails (Reuters)
• Washington Strips New York Fed’s Power (WSJ)
• U.S. Supreme Court split over Obamacare challenge (Reuters)
• Citigroup Loses $800 Million as It Exits Turkey’s Akbank (BBG)
• Justice Who Once Tried to Kill Obamacare Now Potential Savior (BBG)
• Buyers of Espírito Santo Debt Face Financial Uncertainty (WSJ)

• Hilsenrath: Fed Ushering in New Era of Uncertainty on Rates (WSJ)
• Is Supreme Court's chief justice ready to take down ObamaCare? (The Hill)
• Netanyahu arrives in U.S., signs of easing of tensions over Iran speech (Reuters)
• Nemtsov Murder Fuels Suspicion, Fails to Spur Russia Selloff (BBG)
• ECB uncomfortable with leading role in Greek funding drama (Reuters)
• Video shows Los Angeles police shooting homeless man dead (Reuters)
• Iraq Military Begins Campaign to Reclaim Tikrit (WSJ)
• How Billionaires in London Use Secret Luxury Homes to Hide Assets (BBG)

• Central Banks With Negative Rates Spur Question of How Low to Go (BBG)
• DHS to keep running: Congress edges toward domestic security funding patch (Reuters)
• Setbacks for Tsipras Stir Discord in Greek Ruling Party (BBG)
• Greece’s Challenge: Appeasing Its Creditors and Its Population (WSJ)
• Buffett, a cheerleader for America, takes his checkbook abroad (Reuters)
• Oil’s Big Swings Are the New Normal: Market has rarely been more volatile (WSJ)
• Ukraine Left Behind as Russian Stock Gains Are Unmatched (BBG)
• Brent rises to $61, set for first monthly gain since July (Reuters)

• Goldman Employees Reaped $2 Billion From 2008 Options Last Year (BBG)
• On Bush turf, Obama blames immigration woes on Republicans (Reuters)
• Tougher Internet rules to hit cable, telecoms companies (Reuters)
• Russia's Gazprom says can exempt rebel-held areas from Ukraine gas contract (Reuters)
• Allianz Says Pimco Seeing ‘Substantially’ Lower Outflows (BBG)
• Merkel Faces Stepped-Up Dissent on Greek Bailout in Party (BBG)
• SEC Probes Companies’ Treatment of Whistleblowers (WSJ)
• 2-Year Trek From Turf to Table Delays Cheaper U.S. Beef (BBG)
• Turkish jets violate Greek air space (Kathimerini)

Janet Yellen is very alarmed that some members of Congress want to conduct a comprehensive audit of the Federal Reserve for the first time since it was created. During testimony this week, she made “central bank independence” sound like it was the holy grail. Even though every other government function is debated politically in this country, Janet Yellen insists that what the Federal Reserve does is “too important” to be influenced by the American people. Does any other government agency ever dare to make that claim? If the Fed is doing everything correctly, why should Yellen be alarmed? What does she have to hide?

As a frequent contributor to Bloomberg, I would welcome the opportunity to debate this with Barry.
What say you @ritholtz ?  : )

• Invade Syria already, we know you will: Islamic State in Syria abducts at least 150 Christians (Reuters)
• Greece Struggles to Get Citizens to Pay Their Taxes (WSJ)
• Doubts Shadow Deal to Extend Greek Bailout (WSJ)
• In surprise result, Chicago's Mayor Emanuel faces election run-off (Reuters)
• Obama vetoes Keystone pipeline bill (Reuters)
• Another sign of the top: Cushman & Wakefield Going Up for Sale (WSJ)
• Lure of Wall Street Cash Said to Skew Credit Ratings (BBG) ... and threat of DOJ lawsuits also
• Oil rises to $59 as Saudis say demand growing (Reuters)

• Yellen faces Senate grilling on Fed rate policy, transparency (Reuters)
• Big Banks Face Scrutiny Over Pricing of Metals (WSJ)
• Greece makes more concessions to euro zone, Germany sets vote (Reuters)
• Time for another executive order: Longer Lives Hit Companies With Pension Plans Hard (WSJ)
• The Syria invasion "false flag" approaches: Islamic State in Syria abducts at least 90 from Christian villages (Reuters)
• Why Lenders Love the $2.5 Million Home Loan (BBG)
• Reuters journalist Maria Golovnina dies in Pakistan aged 34 (Reuters)
• Qatar’s Ties to Militants Strain Alliance (WSJ)

According to the WSJ, "prosecutors in the Justice Department’s antitrust division are scrutinizing the price-setting process for gold, silver, platinum and palladium in London, while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has opened a civil investigation, these people said. The agencies have made initial requests for information, including a subpoena from the CFTC to HSBC Holdings PLC related to precious-metals trading, the bank said in its annual report Monday. Who is involved in this latest gold-rigging scandal? Why everyone! ... which makes it immediately obvious why the European regulator had to promptly cover up the whole affair. Under scrutiny are Bank of Nova Scotia , Barclays PLC, Credit Suisse Group AG , Deutsche Bank AG , Goldman Sachs Group Inc., J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Société Générale SA, Standard Bank Group Ltd. and UBS AG , according to one of the people close to the investigation.

• Tsipras Tamed as Economists Declare Greece Loses Austerity Fight (BBG)
• Greece readies reform plans to first sign of leftist unrest (Reuters)
• Yellen Faces Congress Amid Direst Threat to Fed Since Dodd-Frank (BBG)
• The war must go on: Kiev says cannot withdraw heavy weapons as attacks persist (Reuters)
• Ukraine fears spread of war after blast in eastern city (Reuters)
• Denmark Dismisses Report It Could Consider Capital Controls (BBG)
• Deadline Nears on Homeland Security Funding Impasse (WSJ)
• Gross Fund Hurt by Oil’s Plunge Amid Bets on Energy Bonds (BBG)

• Greece Should Not Give In to Germany’s Bullying (FP)
• Greece Can Pay Its Debts in Full, but It Won’t (WSJ)
• Early Friday humor: Euro Region Economy Strengthens Amid Wrangling on Greece  (BBG)
• Euro zone may need extra summit to clinch Greek deal (Reuters)
• Oil-Drop Pain Spreads to Saudi Arabia’s Energy Behemoth (WSJ)
• Yellen Confronts Economists’ Ignorance (BBG) - where does one even start with this one
• ECB Plans to Push Greek Banks to Shed State Debt If Talks Fail (BBG)

• Greece to submit loan request to euro zone, Germany resists (Reuters)
• Ukrainian forces start to quit besieged town (Reuters)
• Bank of Japan maintains policy, no surprises (FT)
• China Considering Mergers Among Its Big State Oil Companies (WSJ)
• Soros Shifts to Europe, Asia as Investors Cut U.S. Equities (BBG)
• Putin tells Kiev to let troops surrender as Ukraine ceasefire unravels (Reuters)
• Venezuela Squanders Its Oil Wealth (BBG)
• Swiss prosecutor raids HSBC office, opens criminal inquiry (Reuters)

There was much confusion yesterday when algos went into a buying frenzy on news that Greece would submit a request for a 6 month loan extension, believing this means Greece has caved and will agree to a bailout programme extension as well. Nothing could have been further from the truth as we explained first moments after the headline struck, and also as Reuters validated moments ago when it said that "Greece will submit a request to the euro zone on Wednesday to extend a "loan agreement" for up to six months but EU paymaster Germany says no such deal is on offer and Athens must stick to the terms of its existing international bailout." But since the political nuances of diplomacy are lost on the math Ph.Ds who program the market-moving algos, the S&P did manage to roar above 2100 on what was another headfake and then forgot to sell off on the reality.