Credit Suisse

Your Last Minute Payrolls Preview: What Wall Street Expects

Today's NFP report will be under intense scrutiny as it is the final jobs report before the June rate decision by the FOMC. The market has increased the probability of a hike at the June meeting significantly in recent weeks and a strong labour market will be critical to allow the Fed to proceed with a June or July "normalization."

Frontrunning: June 3

  • World stocks edge toward one-month high; U.S. jobs data eyed for Fed clues (Reuters)
  • Commodities Stand on Brink of Bull Market After Oil’s Recovery (BBG)
  • Brent crude oil holds above $50 on signs of rebalance (Reuters)
  • Clinton attacks Trump's foreign policy as a threat to U.S. safety (Reuters)
  • Trump strikes back at Clinton's 'phony' speech (Hill)
  • "We want food!', Venezuelans cry at protest near presidency (Reuters)

Futures Flat Ahead Of Strike-Impacted Jobs Report; Commodities Approach Bull Market

After yesterday's two key events, the ECB and OPEC meetings, ended up being major duds, the market is looking at the week's final and perhaps most important event of the week: the May payrolls report to generate some upward volatility and help stocks finally break out of the range they have been caught in for over a year.

Ex-CEO Of Largest Swiss Insurer Commits Suicide, Three Years After CFO Hanged Himself

In the latest tragic news from the world of finance, earlier today Zurich Insurance, the largest Swiss insurer which employs 55,000 people and provides general insurance and life insurance products in more than 170 countries, reported that Martin Senn, the company's former chief executive officer who stepped down in a December reshuffle, has committed suicide. He was 59.

The BDC Consolidation Begins: Ares Buys American Capital For $3.4 Billion

Back during the last bubble, Business Development Corporation (BDC) pioneer American Capital was one of the hottest business models (and most desired companies to work for). However, when the bubble burst, so did the company's stock price, as well as its reputation, and in the past 9 years the company failed to see its stock price recover anywhere near the levels seen during the last bubble. Which is perhaps why moments ago in a dramatic move shaking up the BDC space, ACAS announced it would sell itself to another BDC titan, Ares Capital in a deal worth $3.4 billion.

'There Will Be Banker Blood': Why JPM Is Afraid Of "Quiet Trading Floors"

With banker bonuses set to drop this year, it should be no surprise that things are not all sunshine and roses on Wall Street. After 30 years of dramatically outperforming Main Street, Wall Street wages may be set for some mean-reversion as JPMorgan analysts take an ax to the biggest global investment banks' earnings. As Bloomberg reports, "quiet trading floors" are set to depress global investment banks’ second-quarter revenue 24 percent, with weakness across equities, interest rates, currencies, with a regionally-driven weakness from Asia.

Frontrunning: May 17

  • As Brexit vote looms, U.S. banks review their European commitments (Reuters)
  • Oil’s Strength Continues to Boost Global Stocks (WSJ)
  • Trump closing gap with Clinton, poll shows (Hill)
  • In Adjacent Pennsylvania Counties, Republicans Are Split on Donald Trump (WSJ)
  • Make America Gold Again: Calls for Everyone's Favorite Standard Are Back (BBG)

What DOJ Probe: Citadel Acquires Electronic Trading Pioneer ATD To Cement HFT Dominance

Less than a week after Reuters broke the story that the Department of Justice is probing HFT powerhouse Citadel, which admits it executes 35% of all trades by retail investors in U.S.-listed stocks, whether it is also frontrunning those orders (an allegation that many are convinced is a rock-solid fact) we find that billionaire Ken Griffin is not at all concerned about the outcome of the investigation on his core business model and is instead expanding. Citadel is acquiring the equity-trading operations of Citigroup’s Automated Trading Desk division, one of the pioneers of high-frequency trading.

The ECB Met With Goldman, Other Banks At Shanghai G-20 Meeting, Allegedly Leaking March Stimulus

On March 10, 2016 when the ECB announced the biggest expansion to quantitative easing in European history, when it shocked the market by announcing not only a reduction in its negative rate and expansion in the TLTRO program, but also the launch of a corporate bond monetization program.Well maybe not "shocked" the market, because as Bloomberg writes, ECB board members met with representatives of banks and investment managers including Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, Credit Suisse and Moore Europe Capital Management in February, just days before the ECB's March 10 announcement.

Regulators Want To Know What Goldman Was Doing In The Panama Papers Database

What investigators found from the recently published Panama Papers database and other leaked documents is that none other than Goldman Sachs and three other banks that are licensed by the state of New York had set up Panamanian shell companies. The other banks are BNP Paribas SA, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce and Standard Chartered Plc.

US Futures, European Stocks Drop As USDJPY Tumbles

One day after the biggest jump in stocks in two months on what has still been an undetermined catalyst, overnight global equities did a U-turn with European stocks falling toward a one-month low and U.S. stock index futures declining, as crude oil dropped toward $44 a barrel. A driver the move lower was a sharp reversal in the USDJPY which dropped 100 pips from yesterday's highs which took places just as Goldman predicted the USDJPY has finally bottomed, facilitated by a weaker dollar (also following a Goldman report yesterday forecasting the USD was about to surge).

Japan Banks May Soon Pay Borrowers To Take Out Loans

Japanese banks may soon pay borrowers to accept loans if they can raise funds at even cheaper rates. Negative interest-rate lending is increasingly becoming a reality since the Bank of Japan started levying charges on idle cash. Lenders can now borrow for three months in the Tokyo interbank market at a record-low 6 basis-point annualized rate, versus 17 basis points since the BOJ move in January. They may eventually be able to be paid to borrow and then profit by paying less to lend, according to Credit Suisse Group AG, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. This is also known as shoving money down people's throats... and then paying them for it.

Frontrunning: May 10

  • World stock markets rise while yen falls back (Reuters)
  • Yen Falls a Second Day as Japan Reiterates Ability to Intervene (BBG)
  • Say goodbye to OPEC, Russia’s Sechin says (Reuters)
  • European Stocks Buoyed by Banks (WSJ)
  • Fed's Dudley: More Reserve Currencies Would Make for Stronger Financial System (WSJ)
  • Dead-of-Night Reversal Puts Brazil Impeachment Back on Track (BBG)