• Tim Knight from...
    01/26/2015 - 21:16
    "Oh, he's there to make sure high school kids don't jump in front of a train to kill themselves", I would reply. And you, assuming you come from a place that isn't insane, would be puzzled and...

Credit Suisse

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Frontrunning: June 27





  • Yellen Spending Recipe Lacking Key Ingredient: Bigger Wage Gains (BBG)
  • Ukraine signs trade agreement with EU, draws Russian threat (Reuters)
  • GM Documents Show Senior Executive Had Role in Switch (WSJ)
  • Australian Report Postulates Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 Lost Oxygen (WSJ)
  • World’s Biggest Debt Load Lures Distressed Funds to China  (BBG)
  • GPIF Rushing Into Riskier Assets Before Ready, Okina Says (BBG)
  • Japan Prices Rise Most Since ’82 on Tax, Utility Fees (BBG)
  • Italian Debt Swells to Rival Germany as Bond Yields Slide (BBG)
  • China’s Manhattan Project Marred by Ghost Buildings (BBG)
  • BOE's Carney Says Rates Won't Rise to Levels Previously Considered Normal (WSJ)
 
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Frontrunning: June 26





  • Minorities Seen Driving U.S. Household Growth (Reuters)
  • GM prepares to recall some Cruze sedans with Takata air bags (Reuters)
  • PBOC Halts Repos as China Money Rate Climbs to Seven-Week High (BBG)
  • Ukraine Optimism Wavers on Peace as Cease-Fire Winds Down (BBG)
  • Economic Rebound Seen Undercut by Weak Pay as Vote Winner (BBG)
  • Cracks Open in Dark Pool Defense With Barclays Lawsuit (BBG)
  • The Survivor: How Eric Holder outlasted his (many) critics (Politico)
  • IBM, Lenovo Tackle Security Worries on Server Deal (WSJ)
  • Militants take Iraqi gas field town, president calls parliament session (Reuters)
  • Carney Surprises Confounding Markets as BOE Manages Guidance (BBG)
 
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Credit Suisse "Fear Barometer" Hits All Time High





With the market firmly under the control of the Fed, VIX plunging and the S&P at all time highs is the a different indicator to look at for "fear"? For one possible answer we refer to the latest note by FBN's JC O'Hara who looks at a different "fear" index, namely the Credit Suisse Fear Barometer. He finds that, at 37%, it has never been higher.

 
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Argentina Bonds Tumble Further After 'Swap' Plans Unveiled, Then Ruled In Violation





After 2 days of weakness following the SCOTUS decision against them, Argentina unveiled a plan to restructure their debt - swapping existing foreign law debt to local law (more manipulatable and less legally enforceable) bonds, though Citi warns "implementing [the swap] may be technically challenging.". This 'voluntary swap' action is not a clear 'default event' but CDS spreads surging to over 3000bps and longer-dated bond prices tumbling once again suggest the market believes the path is clear as holdouts will once again hold out. As we explained here, there are five main scenarios and it appears, given these actions - that Argentina is playing hardball and will restart negotiations over the debt exchange. As Jefferies warns, "there's a high chance of default," but Argentina's economy minister Kicillof explained "everyone stay calm, the reconstruction of Argentina is not jeopardized." This plan was then ordered in violation of the anti-evasion policy SCOTUS set in place.

 
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Frontrunning: June 17





  • Obama to tout manufacturing gains, highlight economic progress (Reuters)
  • Iraq Gunmen Attack North of Baghdad as Obama Weighs Plan (BBG)
  • Chinese Regulators Block Shipping Alliance Abandoned Deal (WSJ)
  • Russian $8.2 Trillion Oil Trove Locked Without U.S. Tech (BBG)
  • Ukrainian forces, rebels clash near Russian border (Reuters)
  • M&A talk lifts stocks, Iraq tensions ease slightly (Reuters)
  • Wealthy Clintons Use Trusts to Limit Estate Tax They Back (BBG)
  • Argentina vows to service debt despite new legal blow (Reuters)
  • Allergan's Bitter Pill for Morgan Stanley (WSJ)
  • Islamists kill 50 in Kenya, some during World Cup screening (Reuters)
  • American Express Revs Up Pursuit of the Masses (WSJ)
 
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Frontrunning: June 12





  • Iraqi Drama Catches U.S. Off Guard (WSJ)
  • Al-Qaeda Offshoot on NATO Border Threatens Turkish Rally (BBG)
  • It's just the snow, people: U.S. Economic Recovery Looks Distant as Growth Lingers (NYT)
  • Freed Taliban leaders may remain in Qatar beyond one-year travel ban (Reuters)
  • BNP Paribas Executive Chodron de Courcel to Quit Post (WSJ)
  • Greenmail is back (WSJ)
  • Facebook Places Multiple Bets to Win Messenger Wars (BBG)
  • ECB easing to benefit Ukraine, Russia corporate bonds (Reuters)
  • Rome Shows the World How Not to Run Bike-Sharing Program (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: June 11





  • World Bank Cuts Global Growth Forecast After ‘Bumpy’ 2014 Start (BBG)
  • Al-Qaeda Offshoot Threatens Iraq Oil Site After Taking Mosul (BBG)
  • Fed Prepares to Keep Record Balance Sheet for Years to Come (BBG)
  • EU investigates tax rulings on Apple, Starbucks, Fiat unit (Reuters)
  • Cantor Loss Shocks Republicans, Dims Immigration Changes (BBG)
  • More surveillance: Google to Buy Satellite-Imaging Startup for $500 Million (WSJ)
  • Tea Party activist who defeated Cantor focused on budget, immigration (Reuters)
  • Airbus Suffers Worst Order Loss as Emirates Deal Scrapped (BBG)
  • Amazon.com plans local services marketplace this year (Reuters)
  • Amazon Stops Taking Advance Orders for ‘Lego’ and Other Warner Videos (NYT)
 
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Frontrunning: June 10





  • Ukraine, Russia Fail to Reach Deal in Natural-Gas Talks (WSJ)
  • Boko Haram Kidnaps More Girls in Nigeria (WSJ)
  • Déjà vu: echoes of pre-crisis world mount (FT)
  • Money market rates hit new low as ECB moves gain traction (Reuters)
  • 'Dark Pools' Face New SEC Probe (WSJ)
  • Buffett Ready to Double $15 Billion Solar, Wind Bet (BBG)
  • White House-Congress rift over Bergdahl deal deepens (Reuters)
  • Taxpayers Face Big Medicare Tab for Unusual Doctor Billings (WSJ)
  • Lean Retirement Faces U.S. Generation X as Wealth Trails (BBG)
  • Employers’ skills gap claim does not show up in US wage data (FT)
  • He is holding out for the Zuckerberg overbid: Donald Sterling says LA Clippers not for sale (WSJ)
 
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Risk Analysis In The Golden Age Of The Central Banker





Because we are living in the Golden Age of Central Bankers, and that wreaks havoc on the fundamental nature of market expectations data....

  1. the VIX is not a reliable measure of market complacency.
  2. the wisdom of crowds is nonexistent.
  3. fundamental risk/reward calculations for directional exposure to any security are problematic on anything other than a VERY long time horizon.
  4. I’d rather be reactive and right in my portfolio than proactive and wrong.

The Golden Age of the Central Banker is a time for survivors, not heroes. And that’s the real moral of this story.

 
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Frontrunning: June 9





  • Attorneys Known for Large Civil Settlements Line Up to Sue GM Over Company's Handling of Defective Ignition Switches (WSJ)
  • Pakistani Taliban attack airport in Karachi, 27 dead (Reuters)
  • U.S. Official: Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl Has Declined to Speak to His Family (WSJ)
  • Ukraine Gas Talks Resume in Brussels to Avoid Cut-off This Week  (BBG)
  • China's Central Bank Flexes Muscle (WSJ)
  • China says Vietnam, Philippines' mingling on disputed isle a 'farce' (Reuters)
  • World Needs Record Saudi Oil Supply as OPEC Convenes (BBG)
  • Kraft Raises Prices on Maxwell House, Yuban U.S. Coffee Products (BBG)
  • United Continental: One Sick Bird (WSJ)
 
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What Wall Street Expects Of Today's Jobs Number





  • HSBC 175K
  • Goldman Sachs 175K
  • Citigroup 185K
  • JP Morgan 200K
  • Deutsche Bank 200K
  • Bank of America 225K
  • Barclays 225K
  • UBS 230K
 
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Frontrunning: June 5





  • Inside the White House's decision to free Bergdahl (Reuters)
  • Dimon’s Raise Haunts BNP Paribas as U.S. Weighs $10 Billion Fine (BBG)
  • Jobs Are on the Line as Banks' Revenue Slides (WSJ)
  • Wall Street Adjusts to the New Trading Normal (WSJ)
  • Nothing like objective, intense probes: GM recall probe to clear senior execs, finds no concerted coverup (Reuters)
  • ECB ready to cut rates and push banks into lending to boost euro zone economy (Reuters)
  • China Should Resist Further Stimulus, IMF Says (BBG)
  • Carney Finds Ally in Draghi as Key Rate Kept at 0.5% (BBG)
  • Assad wins Syria election with 88.7 percent of votes (Reuters)
 
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The Penguin Parade Begins: Goldman, BofA, Credit Suisse All Cut Q2 GDP Forecasts By 0.5% On Average





Remember when the "thesis" for Q2 growth was that just because Q1 was so horrible, Q2 will have to bounce back? Well, oops.

 
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Frontrunning: June 4





  • U.S. sets new import duties on Chinese solar products (Reuters)
  • U.S.-China Solar-Products Dispute Heats Up (WSJ)
  • China Mulls Offshore Yuan Gold Trade in Free Trade Zone (BBG)
  • Insider-Trading Probe Could Snarl a Deal for Icahn (WSJ)
  • KCG Holdings Suspects Its Trading Code Was Stolen (WSJ)
  • ‘Period. Full Stop’ Is the New ‘At the End of the Day’ (BBG)
  • Draghi not so goof for bonds: Investors Flag Risk of ECB Disappointing After Europe Bond Rally (BBG)
  • But great for stocks: Equity Traders See Draghi Turning Throttle Up on Rally (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: June 3





  • At least 74 dead in crashes similar to those GM linked to faulty switches (Reuters)
  • Obama Calls for $1 Billion Europe Security Fund; Will Increase U.S. Military Presence in Eastern Europe (WSJ)
  • Euro Inflation Slowing More Than Forecast Pressures ECB (BBG)
  • China accelerates as euro zone stumbles (Reuters)
  • Russia says Ukraine situation worsening, submits U.N. resolution (Reuters)
  • Secondary Sales Squeeze Investors (WSJ)
  • Barclays Said to Start Cutting Jobs in Investment Banking Unit (Bloomberg)
  • Backlash Grows on Release of Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl in Taliban Prisoner Swap (WSJ)
  • For fallen soldiers' families, Bergdahl release stirs resentment (Reuters)
  • PIMCO's Gross stares at record outflow (Reuters)
 
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