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Credit Suisse

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Frontrunning: March 18





  • Lost Jet’s Path Seen as Altered via Computer (NYT)
  • Fed Links Low Rates to “Persistent Headwinds” in Economy (Hilsenrath)
  • Top German Court Clears Euro-Zone Bailout Fund (WSJ)
  • U.S., EU set sanctions as Putin recognizes Crimea "sovereignty" (Reuters)
  • Indian wealth effect: Sensex, Nifty hit life highs as domestic-focused firms rally (Reuters)
  • China bond default has positive effect on local government groups (FT) - unless it's negative
  • Russia tensions  risk higher gas prices (FT)
  • China Home-Price Growth Slows in Big Cities on Tight Credit (BBG)
  • ECB's Weidmann says German surpluses "here to stay" (Reuters)
  • Microsoft Office for iPad (AAPL) to be introduced this month (The Verge)
 
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Frontrunning: March 14





  • Ukraine anxiety triggers flight to safety, stocks tumble (Reuters)
  • Woodrow Wilson’s Ukraine Failure Foreshadows West’s Dilemmas (BBG)
  • Fortress Executives Join Peers Selling Stock After Rally (BBG)
  • 303 Deaths Seen in G.M. Cars With Failed Air Bags (NYT)
  • Putin Deports Executives for Speeding as Sanctions Loom (BBG)
  • Russia blocks internet sites of Putin critics (Reuters)
  • China Bond Risk Exceeds Ireland as Defaults Unavoidable (BBG)
  • China H-Shares Post Biggest Weekly Drop Since October (BBG)
  • Surge in Rail Shipments of Oil Sidetracks Other Industries (WSJ)
  • Blackstone’s Home Buying Binge Ends as Prices Surge (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: March 13





  • China premier warns on economic slowdown as data fans stimulus talk (Reuters)
  • Li says China defaults ‘unavoidable’ (FT)
  • Russia Said to Ready for Iran-Style Sanctions in Worst Case (BBG)
  • Rescue the tapes from the Bank of England’s dustbins  (FT)
  • Obama Warns Putin of Cost to Russia for Annexing Ukraine (BBG)
  • The TVIX is back: Credit Suisse VIX Note That Ran Amok in 2012 Back on Top (BBG)
  • U.S. Risks National Blackout From Small-Scale Attack (WSJ)
  • U.S. Investigators Suspect Missing Airplane Flew On for Hours (WSJ)
  • Malaysia says no evidence missing plane flew hours after losing contact (Reuters)
  • Missed Alarms and 40 Million Stolen Credit Card Numbers: How Target Blew It (BBG)
  • Death Toll in NYC Building Blast Rises to Six; Search Continues (BBG)
 
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Futures Rise On Big Misses In Chinese Industrial Production, Retail Sales And Fixed Investment





It was another day of ugly overnight macro data, all of it ouf of China, with industrial production (8.6%, Exp. 9.5%, Last 9.7%), retail sales (11.8%, Exp. 13.5%, Last 13.1%) and fixed asset investment (17.9% YTD vs 19.4% expected) all missing badly and confirming that in a world of deleveraging, the Chinese economy will continue to sputter. Which is precisely what the "bad news is good news" algos needs and why futures levitated overnight: only this time instead of latching on to the USDJPY correlation pair, it was the AUDJPY which surged after Australia - that Chinese economic derivative - posted its third best monthly full-time jobs surge in history! One can be certain that won't last. But for now it has served its purpose and futures are once again green. How much longer will the disconnect between deteriorating global macro conditions and rising global markets continue, nobody knows, but sooner rather than later the central planner punch bowl will be pulled and the moment of price discovery truth will come. It will be a doozy.

 
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Bond Trading Grinds To A Halt: Goldman Set To Report Weakest Q1 Since 2005; Revenues Down As Much As 25% Elsewhere





Since Wall Street has been explicitly fighting the Fed (remember: the main reason there is no volume is because nobody is selling) Wall Street has once again lost, and despite its appeals, the time to pay the piper has come. Said payment will be taken out of bank Q1 earnings which as everyone knows, will continue the declining trend seen in recent years (so much for that whole Net Interest Margin fable), but to learn just how bad, we go to the FT which reports that fixed income groups across Wall Street "are set for their worst start to the year since before the financial crisis, with revenue declines of up to 25%." The punchline: "Analysts now expect Goldman Sachs to record its weakest first quarter since 2005 and JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America are forecast to see their lowest revenues since they bought Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch, respectively, in 2008."

 
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Frontrunning: March 12





  • China worries chill markets, copper slumps (Reuters)
  • Peak dot com dot two idiocy: Candy Crush Saga maker King seeks $7.56 bln valuation from IPO (BBG)
  • Obama Meeting With Yatsenyuk Raises Stakes in Ukraine (BBG)
  • Federal prosecutors open criminal probe of GM recall (Reuters)
  • Pimco Cuts Government Debt on Outlook for Fed Buying (BBG)
  • Missing Malaysian Jetliner Confuses World That’s Online 24/7 (BBG)
  • Mortgage Giants Face Endgame (WSJ)
  • Russia Calls U.S. Aid to Ukraine Illegal Amid Standoff (BBG)
  • U.S. judge freezes assets of Mt. Gox bitcoin exchange boss (Reuters)
  • Ousted Libyan PM flees country after tanker escapes rebel-held port (Reuters)
  • Senate-CIA Dispute Erupts Into a Public Brawl (WSJ)
 
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Jeff Gundlach's "What Hath QE Wrought" Webcast





It's that time in the quarter, when Jeff Gundlach takes the mic to walk everyone though his latest thoughts on the market, as well as the most recent capital allocation of his fund, DoubleLine, which like PIMCO, had a less than memorable 2013, although 2014 is certainly starting off on a far better foot for bond funds everywhere. Also who knows: with MBS guru, "convexity maven" Harley Bassman announcing today he is leaving Credit Suisse and joining Pimco, maybe Gundlach will shock everyone with an announcement that El-Erian is moving from Newport Beach and making Doubleline, and West LA, his new home?

 
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Frontrunning: March 10





  • Index of largest Chinese stocks drops to lowest since February 2009 (BBG)
  • Plane-Debris Hunters Seek Suspected Aircraft Window Part (BBG)
  • New-Home Building Is Shifting to Apartments (WSJ)
  • Forward Guidance Risks Stoking Instability, BIS Says (BBG)
  • Alleged Bitcoin Millionaire Nakamoto Gets $28,000 Donations (BBG)
  • Mexico kills drug kingpin reported dead years ago (Reuters)
  • Tencent to Buy 15% Stake in JD.com to Boost E-Commerce (BBG)
  • Bitcoin exchange MtGox 'faced 150,000 hack attacks every second’ (Telegraph)
  • Noyer Says Stronger Euro Creates Unwarranted Pressure on Economy (BBG)
  • Russian Forces Gain in Ukraine as Separatist Vote Looms (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: March 7





  • Putin rebuffs Obama as Ukraine crisis escalates (Reuters)
  • Behind the $100 Billion Commodity Empire That Few Know (BBG)
  • Initial Public Offerings Hit Pace Not Seen in Years (WSJ)
  • Russian Parliament Will Back Crimea Split From Ukraine (WSJ)
  • Nakamoto Named as Bitcoin Father Denies Involvement, Flees Press (BBG)
  • Chaori Can’t Make Payment in China’s First Onshore Default (BBG)
  • Zombies Spreading Shows Chaori Default Just Start (BBG)
  • Pimco's Gross declares El-Erian is 'trying to undermine me' (Reuters)
  • U.S. Fighters Circle Baltics as Putin Fans Fear of Russia (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: March 5





  • High Stakes Limit Bid to Cow Putin (WSJ)
  • Russia says can't control Crimea troops ahead of U.S. talks (Reuters)
  • Crimea Crisis Haunted by Ghosts of Bungled World War I Diplomacy (BBG)
  • Putin’s Ukraine Gambit Hurts Economy as Allies Lose Billions  (BBG)
  • Germany Says It Provided Equipment and Training to Ukraine's Riot Police (WSJ)
  • China signals focus on reforms and leaner, cleaner growth (Reuters)
  • China Shares in Hong Kong Decline Amid Default Concern (BBG)
  • Beijing Signals New Worry on Growth (WSJ)
 
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Frontrunning: March 4





  • No need to use military force in Ukraine for now: Putin (Reuters)
  • Russia Orders Drill Troops Back to Bases (WSJ)
  • Ukraine premier agrees to reforms for aid package (FT)
  • Japan Base Wages Rise for First Time in Nearly Two Years (WSJ)
  • Only the algos are trading: Citigroup Joins JPMorgan in Seeing Trading-Revenue Drop  (BBG)
  • Vietnam sends blogger to prison for critical posts (AP)
  • At White House, Israel's Netanyahu pushes back against Obama diplomacy (Reuters)
  • Obama to offer new tax breaks for workers in election year budget pitch (Reuters)
  • China Banks Show Too-Connected-to-Fail Link to Shadow Loans (BBG)
  • Ex-BOK Deputy Lee Named to Head South Korea Central Bank (BBG)
  • No mortgage origination problem in the UK: Mortgage approvals climb to six year high (Telegraph)
 
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Frontrunning: March 3





  • Russian markets hit as Putin tightens grip on Crimea (Reuters)
  • Ukraine Sees More Russian Incursions as Standoff Worsens (BBG)
  • Ukraine Crisis Roils Global Markets (WSJ)
  • Cold War Ghosts Haunt East Europe in Moves for Crimea (BBG)
  • How Moscow Orchestrated Events in Crimea (WSJ)
  • Russia Gas Threat Shows Putin Using Pipes to Press Ukraine (BBG)
  • Euro-zone PMI slowed less sharply than estimated (MW)
  • Two top Microsoft execs to leave in reshuffle (Reuters)
  • Soaring Luxury-Goods Prices Test Wealthy's Will to Pay (WSJ)
  • IQ-Boosting Drugs Aim to Help Down Syndrome Kids Learn (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: February 28





  • Yuan suffers biggest weekly loss as PBOC punishes speculators (Reuters)
  • Euro Gains as Bonds Decline With Stocks on Inflation Data (BBG)
  • Biggest Sovereign Fund Forced to Sell Stocks as Mandate Breached (BBG)
  • Because we don't already have enough fried foods.. (Reuters)
  • Putin: Russia to Consider Aid to Ukraine (AP)
  • Wall Street Hates JPMorgan Fee for $1 Trillion Junk Loans (BBG)
  • Yellen Sticks to Plan Amid Weather Doubts (WSJ)
  • U.S. Retail Chains See First Profit Decline Since Recession (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: February 27





  • European Bonds Surge on Slowing German Inflation, Ukraine Tumult  (BBG)
  • Ukraine tensions hit shares (Reuters)
  • Debating Geithner’s Appearances in 2008 Transcripts  (Hilsenrath)
  • Tensions in Asia Stoke Rising Nationalism in Japan (WSJ)
  • GM Investigated Over Ignition Recall Linked to 13 Deaths (BBG)
  • Smartphone wars shift from gadgetry to price (Reuters)
  • Some Companies Alter the Bonus Playbook (WSJ)
  • London’s Subterranean Luxury Manors Lure New Breed of Lenders (BBG)
  • Japan No Country for Old Farmers as 7-Eleven Takes Plow (BBG)
  • Dream of U.S. Oil Independence Slams Against Shale Costs (BBG)
 
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Carl Levin Crucifies Credit Suisse For Aiding And Abetting Tax Evasion: Watch Live





As we reported last night, in a scorching 175-page report, the Senate Subcommittee on Investigations threw the book at the second largest Swiss bank Credit Suisse for allowing up to 22,000 Americans to avoid paying taxes for years. Today is the obligatory post-report spectacle which since it is headed by Carl Levin, of Goldman "Shitty Deal", fame, promises to be quite a populist fest.

 
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