Credit Suisse

Why Oil Producers Don't Believe The Oil Rally: Credit Suisse Explains

Locking It In. Since January, the spread between spot Brent prices and 2020 Brent prices has dropped nearly $8.00 to $10.71 per barrel, indicating selling in 2017, 2018, and 2019 futures contracts. According to Reuters, the majority of selling has come from E&Ps looking to lock in prices to hedge against a repeat of last year's second half commodity price route. At the same time, the hedges indicate a lack of confidence that the current commodity rally will continue.

Goldman Gives Draghi An Ultimatum, But The ECB May Be Finally Ready To Snap

"The ECB needs to surprise this week, not because of markets, but because – given the trend in core inflation – the existing policy mix is behind the curve."- Goldman FX strategist Robin Brooks

"There is a refugee crisis; what could the ECB do? There is climate change; oh, the ECB needs to do something. I have the hiccups; oh, the ECB should do something ... it's crazy. I find this completely ridiculous and irresponsible. But we got ourselves into this" - ECB source.

It's Official: This Is The Biggest Short Squeeze Ever (And May Get Even Bigger)

US equity markets are soaring once again and two things are driving it - CTA-driven short-covering in commodities and the algo-driven squeeze of the most-shorted stocks. Having risen 13 of the last 16 days, "Most Shorted" stocks are now unchanged since The Fed rate-hike, soaring 25% in that time - the biggest squeeze in history. And Credit Suisse warns, it could get worse...as the dash for trash continues.

HY Credit Spreads Have Never Been This High Outside Of A Recession

"We are in the bottom of the 8th or 9th inning, and unless the Fed steps in to add liquidity to the market, which seems unlikely, I don’t expect extra innings... there is no question that the bubble will burst, resulting in a mini or not-so-mini credit crisis."

Junk Bond Funds Report Record Inflows

Overnight, fund flow tracking service EPFR reported that US high yield funds recognized a $5.27bn (+2.8%) inflow for the week ended March 2nd, the largest ever in terms of $AUM and the 2nd largest on a percentage basis. As BofA notes, even more impressive is that the $2.37bn (+7.13%) net inflow for ETFs was the largest ever for the sub-asset class while the +$2.90bn (+1.87%) for open-end funds was the 3rd largest on record.

Frontrunning: March 3

  • Global stocks, oil dip, but markets calm down as growth fears ease (Reuters)
  • Greece cannot carry migrant burden on its own: PM Tsipras (Reuters)
  • New Migrant Crisis Flares in Greece (WSJ)
  • Qatar's BeIn Media buys U.S. film studio Miramax (Reuters)
  • Nanny who beheaded Russian girl cites revenge for Putin's Syria strikes (Reuters)

Asian Surge Continues As Rally Stalls In Europe; S&P Futures Unchanged

While Asian stocks continued their longest rally since August overnight, led higher for the third consecutive day on the back of Japan (+1.3%), Australia (+1.2%) and China (+0.4%) strength, European stocks have as of this moment halted their longest rally since October (Stoxx -0.1%) and U.S. index futures are little changed. Oil slipped from an eight-week high despite yesterday's massive rise in US oil inventories on hopes Saudi Arabia may be forced to cut production as its budget strains grow actue and the kingdom is forced to seek a $10 billion loan, its first material borrowing in a decade.

Sheep Line Up For Slaughter: Investors Buy Most Junk Bonds Ever

HYG - the high yield bond ETF - is trading at its richest to NAV in over 4 years after 7 straight days of inflows. This flowgasm seemed to crescendo yesterday where Credit Suisse estimated a very sizeable HY retail fund inflows (total amount hitting ~$1.9bn) which they note beat 5-Nov-2014 as being the largest inflow day ever. With the ETF at such an extreme in valuation and given the historical performance of the fund after 7 straight days of inflows, it appears the sheep are heading for slaughter once more...

As A Frenzied Wall Street Buys Shale Equity Offering At A Record Pace, Exxon's CEO Has A Stark Warning

Investors have pumped a whopping $9.2 billion in new equity into energy companies year to date, the most since Bloomberg records began in 1999. The euphoria won't last, and the equity issuance window is already closing: confirmation of this comes from none other than Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson who moments ago said that the "wave of oil equity issuances is destroying value", adding that "global economic conditions are not inspiring", that "demand won't solve it quickly" and that "we're still oversupplying the market."