Credit Suisse

Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: March 5





  • As ZH has been saying for months... Draghi Will Need to Push the Euro Down Some More (WSJ) ... but careful with "redenomination risk"
  • Senate Report Said to Fault JPMorgan (NYT)
  • EU Opens Way for Easier Budgets After Backlash (BBG)
  • China Moves to Temper Growth - Property Bubble Is a Key Concern (WSJ)
  • China bets on consumer-led growth to cure social ills (Reuters)
  • Italian president mulls new technocrat government (Reuters)
  • Grillo says MPS won't back technocrats (ANSA)
  • The Russians will be angry: Euro Chiefs Won’t Rule Out Cyprus Depositor Losses (BBG)
  • China Bankers Earn Less Than New York Peers as Pay Dives (BBG)
  • Investors click out of Apple into Google (FT)
  • Community colleges' cash crunch threatens Obama's retraining plan (Reuters)
  • Alwaleed challenges Forbes over his billions - Calculation of $20bn net worth is flawed, says Saudi prince (FT)
  • Guy Hands Dips Into Own Pockets to Fund Bonuses at Terra Firma (BBG)
  • North Korea to scrap armistice if South and U.S. continue drills (Reuters)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Equity 'Panic-To-Euphoria' Shift Signals Key Inflection Point





As investors (and the risk asset markets they inhabit) have recovered from their deep trough of panic, Credit Suisse believes the recovery has followed a somewhat predictable pattern back to euphoria. The trouble is, based on the last 3 'panic' scenarios of 1982, 2002, and 2008, the current wall-of-worry has been scaled to now euphoric levels, and the equity market looks to be at an important inflection point.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: March 4





  • Must defend against Chinese colonial expansion and get the Nigerian oil: U. S. Boosts War Role in Africa (WSJ)
  • BOJ nominee Kuroda sets out aggressive policy ideas (Reuters)
  • China becomes world’s top oil importer (FT)
  • Baby Cured of HIV for the First Time, Researchers Say (WSJ)
  • Obama to nominate Walmart's Burwell as White House budget chief (Reuters)
  • Wal-Mart Anxious to Combat Amazon’s Lead in Web Vendors (BBG)
  • Nasdaq executing trades at a loss (FT)
  • Spending cut debate casts pall over Obama's second-term agenda (Reuters)
  • Russell Indexes to Reclassify Greece as Emerging Market (BBG)
  • Bond Bears Collide With Swaps Showing Low Rates (BBG)
  • Buffett Deputies Leaving Billionaire in the Dust Get More Funds (BBG)
  • Brazil's leftist president fights to win back business (Reuters)
  • U.S. Special Forces train Syrian Rebels in Jordan (Le Figaro)
  • Carlos Slim Risks Losing World’s Richest Person Title as Troubles Mount (BBG)
 
GoldCore's picture

Fed To Prompt Currency Crash and Return to Gold Standard





 

Gold is trading flat today near a one and a half week high hit yesterday as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke defended the U.S.  ultra loose monetary policy.

The selloff in gold ETFs in February underscores the weakness in gold sentiment among retail investors that has been prominent recently. 

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: February 27





  • Wal-Mart's Sales Problem—And America's (WSJ)
  • Investors fret that Italy may undermine ECB backstop (Reuters)
  • Monti Government Mulls Delaying Monte Paschi Bailout (BBG)
  • Norway Faces Liquidity Shock in Record Redemption (BBG)
  • ECB's Praet Says Accommodative Policy Could Lose Effectiveness (BBG)
  • EU Chiefs Tell Italy There’s No Alternative to Austerity (BBG)
  • New Spate of Acrimony in congress As Cuts Loom (WSJ)
  • BOE's Tucker hints at radical growth moves (FT)
  • Kuroda Seen Getting DPJ Vote for BOJ, Iwata May Be Opposed (BBG)
  • Russian Banks Look to Yuan Bond Market (WSJ)
  • Dagong warns about rising debt (China Daily)
  • Italy Election Impasse Negative for Credit Rating, Moody’s Says (BBG)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: February 25





  • Risk of instability hangs over Italy poll (FT), Protest votes add to uncertainty in close Italy election (Reuters), and... Risk On
  • Czech inspectors find horsemeat in IKEA meatballs (Reuters)
  • China’s Slower Manufacturing Casts Shadow Over Recovery (Bloomberg)
  • So much for reform: China Prepares for Government Shuffle as Zhou Stays at PBOC (Bloomberg)
  • France to pause austerity, cut spending next year instead: Hollande (Reuters)
  • Sinopec to buy stake in Chesapeake assets for $1.02 billion (Reuters)
  • White House warns states of looming pain from March 1 budget cuts (Reuters)
  • China Quietly Invests Reserves in U.K. Properties (WSJ)
  • Osborne Keeps Austerity as Investors See Downgrade as Late (BBG)
  • South Korea's new president demands North drop nuclear ambitions (Reuters)
  • Russia accuses U.S. of double standards over Syria (Reuters)
 
Asia Confidential's picture

Why A China Crash May Be Imminent





This week's events show that the Chinese government realises that its stimulus efforts have got out of hand and its economy is in trouble.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: February 22





  • Spain’s Deficit Widened to 10.2% on Bank-Rescue Cost (BBG) - or as Rajoy would say, when one excludes all negatives, it was a surplus
  • Monti Austerity Pushes Italians Toward Parliament Upheaval (BBG)
  • Russia accuses U.S. of double standards over Syria (Reuters)
  • Euro Area to Shrink in 2013 as Unemployment Rises (BBG)
  • UK, China central banks to discuss currency swap line (Reuters)
  • Italy Court Rejects Challenge to Bailout of Monte Paschi (BBG)
  • Japan's Abe to showcase alliance, get Obama to back Abenomics (Reuters)
  • Russia’s missing billions revealed (FT)
  • China Home-Price Gains May Presage Policy Tightening (BBG)
  • Fed unlikely to curtail stimulus despite rising doubts (Reuters)
  • Banks face fines up to 30 per cent of revenues (FT) - just as soon as Basel III is passed (i.e., never)
  • J.C. Penney Can Raise Billions Under Revised Credit Line (BBG)
  • Cost of Dropping Citizenship Keeps U.S. Earners From Exit (BBG)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Meet China's Housing Debt Slaves





Think Americans are the only people in the world toiling under a gargantuan debtload, which at last check was a massive $55.3 trillion, or about $175K per person? Think again. Meet Sherry Sheng, a 29-year-old Shanghai policewoman, who bought herself a 4,000 yuan ($642) black fur jacket, splurging for the last time before she starts paying off the mortgage on her first home.

Sherry is what is known as a Chinese "housing slave."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: February 20





  • Office Depot Agrees to Buy Officemax for $13.50/Shr in Stock
  • Bulgarian Government Resigns Amid Protests (WSJ)
  • Rome will burn, regardless of Italian election result (Reuters)
  • Abe Says No Need for Foreign Bond Buys Under New BOJ Chief (BBG)
  • Rhetoric Turns Harsh as Budget Cuts Loom (WSJ)
  • Muddy Waters Secret China Weapon Is on SEC Website (BBG)
  • Business Loans Flood the Market (WSJ)
  • Staples May Be Winner in Office Depot-OfficeMax Merger (BBG)
  • Fortescue Won't Pay Dividend, Profit Falls (WSJ)
  • Key Euribor rate on hold after rate cut talk tempered (Reuters)
  • FBI Probes Trading in Heinz Options  (WSJ)
  • Spain Said to Impose Yield Ceiling on Bond Sales by Regions (BBG)
  • BOK’s Kim Signals No Rate Cut Needed Now as Outlook Improves (BBG)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Dow & S&P Surge To New 5-Year Highs, USD Unch





Volume was nothing to cheer about after a long weekend, but it seemed the forced buy-ins and stop-runs remain as stocks pushed on to new highs even as the USD ended unchanged from Friday's close and Treasury yields up 2-3bps. A 1.2% rally in S&P futures from Friday's lows as Copper and Silver were slammed lower (former on China 'tightening' and latter on equity short-covering margin unwinds we suspect). In general risk-assets were not playing along with stocks' exuberance but as the after noon played on and stocks saw at most a 1 pt reversal, so bonds pushed higher in yields - recoupling risk and stocks towards the close. VIX led the way - testing Friday's decoupled lows around 12.08%. Credit markets remain underperformers but tracked stocks higher on the day. Oil prices - seemingly the only thing that could potentially foil the current rally - pushed around 1% higher from Friday's close, as Gold fell back modestly to $1605. AAPL ended the day unch - with a huge volume spike at the close, as homebuilders suffered post-NAHB. VIX closed at its lowest since April 2007; S&P 500 futures had their biggest open-to-close rise of the year.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: February 19





  • Here comes the replay of 2011 as China starts the counter-reflation moves: China Central Bank Reverses Cash Pump (WSJ)
  • Security group suspects Chinese military is behind hacking attacks (Reuters)
  • Iceland Foreshadows Death of Currencies Lost in Crisis (BBG)
  • China Allows More Firms to Sell Mutual Funds to Bolster Market (BBG)
  • Uncertainty looms for Italians (FT)
  • Forget the big comeback; Detroit focuses on what can be saved (Reuters)
  • SAC’s Cohen May Face SEC Suit as Deposition Hurts Case (BBG)
  • Hollande wrestles with austerity demands (FT)
  • Obama Golf With Woods in Florida Risks Muddling Messsage (BBG)
  • Simpson and Bowles to Offer Up Deficit (WSJ)
  • Aso Says Japanese Government Not Planning Foreign Bond Buys (BBG) - ... until it changes its tune once more
  • Abe to Decide on Bank of Japan Governor Nomination Next Week (BBG)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: February 13





  • Obama Paints Wider Role for Government in Middle Class Revival (BBG)
  • Obama to Seek a New Trade Deal With EU (WSJ)... or this is strawman why 2016 GDP will be higher
  • Mobile phone sales fall for the first time since 2009 (Telegraph)
  • Sequester Looms, No Deal in Sight (WSJ)
  • Neither US party swallows a compromise (FT)
  • Embattled Economies Cling to Euro (WSJ)
  • For China, Spending Is Harder Than It Looks (WSJ)
  • Bank of England's Sir Mervyn King says recovery in sight (BBC) - just a little more inflation first
  • G7 fails to defuse currency tensions (FT)
  • Japanese Leader Urges Firms to Boost Wages (WSJ) - so does the US one
  • Fed Bank Chiefs Back Money-Fund Overhaul (WSJ), or force everyone out of MMFs and into stocks
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Post: Cheap, Abundant Credit Creates A Low-Return, Bubble-Prone World





By bailing out banks and targeting equity prices, the central banks are exacerbating the misallocation of savings/financial capital to historically overvalued corporate equity. What happens when central banks make credit cheap and abundant? All that cheap money chases scarce productive assets. The yields on assets drop, and speculative "risk-on" assets are boosted into bubbles. Even as corporate profits have skyrocketed (does the trajectory look sustainable? up almost 300% in four years?), equity valuations have risen apace, keeping yields at historically low levels. Anyone who claims "stocks are cheap" would do well to study these charts...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

It's Not The Economy, It's Inflation & The Fed Stupid





It will not be a great shock to ZH readers, but the sad truth (no matter what one is told by the plethora of talking heads and commission takers) is that neither EPS upgrades nor EPS outlooks are in any way correlated to equity market performance. Instead, the central bank balance sheet size and forward inflation expectations are the key factors. As Credit Suisse notes, in fact over the past few years, EPS upgrades and outlooks are negatively correlated with stocks! Even as current inflation (CPI) is supposedly fading, forward inflation expectations have risen and supported equity P/E valuations, and until recently, central bank balance sheets remain supportive of stocks... However, in the last few weeks, as stocks have surged ahead, a few things have changed with the world's central banks seeing the lowest growth in their balance sheets since the crisis began, and in the last few weeks, forward inflation expectations have dropped notably - after peaking at post-crisis peaks once again. So, it's not at all about the fundamentals; it's about the central banks and inflation - and in the short-term, they are losing some willpower.

 
Syndicate content
Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!