• Bruce Krasting
    12/18/2014 - 21:42
      The one thing that Jordan can't do in this war is appear to be weak.

Credit Suisse

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Frontrunning: June 12





  • Pimco Sees 60% Chance of Global Recession in Five Years (BBG)
  • Global Tumult Grips Markets (WSJ)
  • NSA Secrecy Prompts a Pushback (WSJ)
  • ANA Scraps 787 Dreamliner Flight as Engine Fails to Start (BBG) - one of these days, though, it shall fly
  • Kuroda’s April-Was-Enough Message Faces Markets Wanting More (BBG)
  • S&P warns top US banks are still ‘too big to fail’ (FT)
  • Democracy for $500 per plate (Reuters)
  • Iran, the United States and 'the cup of poison' (Reuters)
  • Japan grapples with lack of entrepreneurs (FT)
  • Greece First Developed Market Cut to Emerging at MSCI (BBG)
  • Asia's ticking time bonds; time to cut and run? (Reuters)
  • Sony Outduels Microsoft in First PS4-Xbox One Skirmish (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: June 11





  • Citigroup Facing $7 Billion Currency Hit on Dollar, Peabody Says (BBG)
  • World has 10 years of shale oil, reports US (FT)
  • ECB prepares to defend monetary policy in German court (FT)
  • European Stocks Sink to Seven-Week Low as Treasuries Fall (BBG)
  • Fitch warns on risks from shadow banking in China (Reuters)
  • Obama administration to drop limits on morning-after pill (Reuters)
  • ACLU asks spy court to release secret rulings in response to leaks (MSNBC)
  • SEC Nets Win in 'Naked Short' Case (WSJ)
  • SoftBank Raises Offer for Sprint to $21.6 Billion (WSJ)
  • Chinese rocket launch marks giant leap towards space station (FT)
 
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Frontrunning: June 10





  • In Hong Kong, ex-CIA man may not escape U.S. reach (Reuters)
  • Backlash over US snooping intensifies (FT)
  • Apple to Revamp IPhone Software, Ending Product Funk (BBG)
  • Nothing like revising history: Japan revises up Q1 growth to annual 4.1% (FT), just don't look at the trade deficit
  • Coffee Exports From Indonesia Seen Slumping to Two-Year Low (BBG)
  • Euro bailout Troika nears end of road with patchy record (Reuters)
  • Treasuries Little Changed Before Bullard Speaks Amid QE Debate (BBG)
  • Schwab Topping Goldman Sachs Presages Return to Stocks (BBG)
  • Hedge funds take over another city: London’s Forced Renters Fuel Apartment Investing Boom (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: June 6





  • Global Stocks Tumble as Treasuries Rally, Yen Strengthens (BBG)
  • China Export Gains Seen Halved With Fake-Data Crackdown (BBG) - so a crash in the GDP to follow?
  • FBI and Microsoft take down botnet group  (FT)
  • Quant hedge funds hit by bonds sell-off  (FT)
  • Russia's Syria diplomacy, a game of smoke and mirrors (Reuters)
  • Obama Confidantes Get Key Security Jobs (WSJ)
  • BMW to Mercedes Skip Summer Breaks to Keep Plants Rolling even as European auto demand slides to a 20-year low (BBG) - thank you cheap credit
  • Paris threat to block EU-US trade talks  (FT)
 
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The Debt Of Nations





Following on from our annual update on the wealth (re)distribution of nations, we thought it important to look at the other side of the household balance sheet - that of 'debt' to see just how much 'progress' has been made in the world. In the aftermath of the credit crisis (and the ongoing crisis in Europe), government debt levels continue to rise but combining trends in household debt highlights countries that have sustainable (and unsustainable) overall debt levels  - and thus the greatest sovereign debt problems. Whether the 'number' is from Reinhart & Rogoff or not, the reality is that moar debt is not better and the nations with the highest debt-per-capita may surprise many. Critically, despite the rise in 'wealth' from 2000-2008, the ratio of debt-to-net-worth rose on average by about 50% (and in many nations continues to rise). The bottom line - in almost all countries, government liabilities exceeded government financial assets in 2011, leaving the government a net debtor.

 
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Frontrunning: June 3





  • BIS lays out "simple" plan for how to handle bank failures (Reuters) - Are we still holding our breath on Basel III?
  • Deficit Deal Even Less Likely - Improving U.S. Fiscal Health Eases Pressure for a 'Grand Bargain' Amid Gridlock (WSJ)
  • IRS Faulted on Conference Spending (WSJ)
  • Deadly MERS-CoV virus spreads to Italy (CNN)
  • Turkish PM Erdogan calls for calm after days of protests (Reuters)
  • Financial system ‘waiting for next crisis’ (FT)
  • Russia to send nuclear submarines to southern seas (Reuters)
  • China Nuclear Stockpile Grows as India Matches Pakistan Rise (BBG)
 
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It's A "0.6%" World: Who Owns What Of The $223 Trillion In Global Wealth





Back in 2010 we started an annual series looking at the (re)distribution in the wealth of nations and social classes. What we found then (and what the media keeps rediscovering year after year to its great surprise) is that as a result of global central bank policy, the rich got richer, and the poor kept on getting poorer, even though as we predicted the global political powers would, at least superficially, seek to enforce policies that aimed to reverse this wealth redistribution from the poor to the rich (a doomed policy as the world's legislative powers are largely in the lobby pocket of the world's wealthiest who needless to say are less then willing to enact laws that reduce their wealth and leverage). Now that the topic of wealth distribution (or rather concentration) is once again in vogue, below we present the latest such update looking at a global portrait of household wealth. The bottom line: 29 million, or 0.6% of those with any actual assets under their name, own $87.4 trillion, or 39.3% of all global assets.

 
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Frontrunning: May 31





  • Record unemployment, low inflation underline Europe's pain (Reuters)
  • The ponzi gets bigger and bigger: Spanish banks up sovereign bond holdings by more than 10% (FT)
  • California Lawmakers Turn Down Moratorium on Fracking (BBG)
  • China’s Growing Ranks of Elderly Beset by Depression, Study Says (BBG)
  • Tokyo Prepares for a Once-in-200-Year Flood to Top Sandy (BBG)
  • Morgan Stanley Cutting Correlation Unit Added $50 Billion (BBG)
  • IMF warns over yen weakness (FT)
  • Rising radioactive spills leave Fukushima fishermen floundering (Reuters)
  • India records slowest growth in a decade (FT)
 
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Frontrunning: May 30





  • Japan’s Stocks Correction Raises Stakes for Abe’s Growth Plan (BBG)
  • China Failure to Grow With $1 Trillion Is Warning to Li (BBG)
  • Blankfein Leads Bank CEO Pay With $26 Million Deemed Overpaid (BBG)
  • IMF says ‘no evidence yet’ of Abenomics hurting other economies (FT)
  • Europe Seeks CFTC Delay in Imposing Swaps Rules on Banks (BBG)
  • Fed's Rosengren: 'Modest' QE3 cut may make sense in a few months (Reuters)
  • Who’s who of Obama lobbyists pushes Keystone pipeline (FT)
  • China to Study Joining U.S.-Led Trade Accord After Japan Added (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: May 29





  • South China Sea tension mounts near Filipino shipwreck (Reuters)
  • OECD cuts economic forecasts as eurozone drags on growth (FT)
  • Switzerland frees banks to settle U.S. tax evasion cases (Reuters)
  • U.S. Says Firm Laundered Billions (WSJ)... no, it's not HSBC, also: Free Corzine!
  • Ardent conservative Bachmann to not seek re-election to Congress (Reuters)
  • Russia faults U.S. over 'odious' Syria rights resolution (Reuters)
 
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Frontrunning: May 28





  • ‘Cov-lite’ loans soar in dash for yield (FT)
  • Cambodian police clash with thousands of garment workers, 23 hurt (Reuters)
  • Obama Accepting Sequestration as Deficit Shrinks (BBG)
  • Having done nothing to restore confidence in a fragmented market, the SEC turns back to main street fraud (WSJ)
  • Europe's austerity-to-growth shift largely semantic (Reuters)
  • Germany thwarts EU in China solar fight (FT)
  • In EU-China dispute, Beijing warns of trade  (FT)
  • U.S. Oil Boom Divides OPEC (WSJ)
  • Record Cash Sent to Balanced Funds (BBG)
  • Hilsenrath: Fed Wrestles With Market Expectations About Pace of QE (WSJ)
  • Worse-Than-Cyprus Debt Load Means Caribbean Defaults to Moody’s (BBG)
  • States Raise College Budgets After Years of Deep Cuts (WSJ)
  • U.K. Banks Cut 189,000 With Employment at Nine-Year Low (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: May 23





  • Global shares sink, following 7.3 percent drop in Japan's Nikkei (Reuters)
  • When all fails, pull a Kevin Bacon: Japan Economy Chief Warns Against Panic Over Stock Sell-Off (BBG)
  • White House Feeds IRS Frenzy by Revising Accounts (BBG)
  • In any scandal, lying to Congress is tough to prove (Reuters)
  • Debt limit resets at higher level, budget impasse grinds on (Reuters)
  • China factory data to test political calculations (FT)
  • European Leaders Saying No to Austerity (BBG)
  • And yet, nobody wants in anymore: Iceland’s new coalition government suspends EU accession talks (FT)
  • Oil Manipulation Inquiry Shows EU’s Hammer After Libor (BBG)
  • The Fed Squeezes the Shadow-Banking System (WSJ)
  • Diamond Said to Weigh Backing Barclays Alumni in Venture (BBG)
  • Spain’s Private Jets Disappearing as Tycoons Cut Flights (BBG)
 
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Global Risk Appetite At 2006 Levels - Nears 'Euphoria'





Global risk appetite surged to 4.53 (5 being 'euphoria'), its highest level since the euphoria event of 2006, and up from 1.76 one month ago according to Credit Suisse. Other risk appetite indices, as well as market anecdotes, confirm the “almost euphoric” environment. US credit risk appetite has charged higher and is now at 3.22. Furthermore, as they note, the current risk rally has several unusual features. First, it clearly lacks the usual support of strong global growth momentum. Global IP momentum (as we noted here) is almost always above its long-term average when risk appetite hits euphoria, but currently is below 5%, which is somewhat sluggish. Second, the current near-euphoria is strongly driven by one asset class: Japanese equities. The bottom-line, they conclude, is that the current risk-loving environment is related much more to recent policy innovations than growth data. And confirming this 'euphoria' Investors Intelligence notes that newsletter writers classified as bulls rose to 55.2% from 54.2% with readings of ~55% "suggestive of a trading top," last seen in Oct. 2007. No surprise there but with markets statistically 'euphoric' caution seems warranted at least...

 

 
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Frontrunning: May 22





  • Apple Bonds Stick Buyers With $280.6 Million Loss as Rates Climb (BBG)
  • Iceland Freezes EU Plans as New Government Shuns Euro Crisis (BBG)
  • "Transparent Fed" - Ben Bernanke meets privately with Darrell Issa (Politico)
  • Bank of Japan vows market steps to curb bond turbulence (Reuters) holds policy (FT)
  • Stockholm riots spread in third night of unrest (FT)
  • Dudley Says Decision on Taper Will Require 3-4 Months (BBG)
  • Senate panel passes immigration bill; Obama praises move (Reuters)
  • Italy to outline youth jobs plan as government struggles (Reuters)
  • Apple CEO Tim Cook, Lawmakers Square Off Over Taxes (WSJ)
  • Google Joins Apple Avoiding Taxes With Stateless Income (BBG)
  • Sony Board Discussing Loeb’s Entertainment IPO Proposal (BBG)
  • Vote Strengthens Dimon's Grip (WSJ), Dimon performance well choreographed (FT)
 
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