Repo Market

Jeffrey Snider: All Signs Point To Systemic Reset

"... what’s happened in stocks is more a myth than actual reality. Investors in stocks are buying at ridiculous valuations based on the premise that the Fed can create a recovery through liquidity. And what 2014 and 2015 show us is that this simply wasn’t true! ...the longer the earnings recession lingers, the higher the risk that stock investors will realize that they’ve been following the wrong story all along!"

Connect Just Two Dots, See All The Rest

Dealers, the bedrock of the global monetary system, are hoarding collateral and it shows. That, however, doesn’t fit within the recovery narrative, so the media resorts to the easy and absurd to obscure what “should” not be happening...

Treasuries Slump After Foreign Buyers Flee From Mediocre, Tailing 2 Year Auction

One look at today's repo market levels before today's 3 Year auction would have suggested that just because 3 Year paper was trading special in repo, that we would be primed for another short squeeze. However, that did not happen. Instead, and contrary to last month's stellar 3 Year auction, moments ago the US Treasury reported that today's auction printed at a high yield of 0.93%, tailing the When Issued 0.928% by 0.2 bps.

"Stellar" 3 Year Auction Leaves Shorts Running For Cover

We had a feeling there would be a squeeze into today's 3Y auction after this morning reports of that the OTD was trading tight, and quite "special" at -0.5% in repo, traditionally indicative of a notable lack of deliverable and underlying on the day of the auction. The repo market is also why just before the auction we wondered if there would be another tradtional repo-driven squeeze into today's auction.  And, sure enough, just moments later we got confirmation of precisely such a squeeze because the $24 billion in 3Y paper which according to the When Issued was supposed to price at 0.89%, instead printed at 0.875%, stopping through the WI by a whopping, for this tenor, 1.5 bps.

S&P Futures Jump As Rebound In Commodities Helps Defense Of Key Support Trendline

With China's Plunge Protection Team having intervened and set a positive spin on another poor session, traders put declines in Asia behind them as European markets rose along with U.S. index futures and commodities. European shares advanced for the first time in three days on speculation the region’s central bank will ramp up monetary stimulus on Thursday. A gauge of raw materials rebounded from its biggest selloff in a month, buoyed by gains in oil and copper. Furthermore, the previously noted selloff in Japanese government bonds - one which triggered circuit breakers and which some speculated may have been precipitated by the BOJ itself - dragged Treasuries and German bunds lower, gold fell a second day and the euro dropped versus most of its major peers.

Stocks Tumble After Fed Plans Too-Big-To-Fail Bank Counterparty Risk Cap

US financials are tumbling after The Fed proposed a rule that would limit banks with $500 bln or more of assets from having net credit exposure to a “major counterparty” in excess of 15% of the lender’s tier 1 capital. Bloomberg reports that The Fed's governors plan to vote today on the proposal. The implications of this are significant in that it will force some banks to unwind exposures and delever against one another (most notably with potential affect the repo market which governs much of the liquidity transmission mechanisms). Guggenheim's Jaret Seiberg warns the proposal is likely to be "stringent," though less onerous than the Dec 2011 proposal... which Goldman Sachs more specifically warned that it could destroy 300,000 jobs.

Is A Major Treasury Squeeze On Deck: 10-Year Trades "Super Duper" Special In Repo

The recent sharp spike in TSY yields has prompted rates traders to wonder if the selling was organic, if somewhat panicked, unwinding of long positions or just an influx in new shorts, whether due to macro considerations or as rate-locks as a slew of new Investment Grade issuance comes to market. Courtesy of Stone McCarthy and Credit Agricole, both of whom point out our favorite repo market "stress" indicator, the "specialness" level of the 10Y, we now have the answer.

Where Negative Interest Rates Will Lead Us

The real pity is that the busts and crackups could all have been avoided if central bankers recognized that falling prices eventually create the conditions for a normal economic revival. Deflation is not a death spiral as the Keynesians believe. Nevertheless, expect more central banks to follow the early leaders — Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark, and even the European Central Bank itself — into negative interest rate territory. The crying shame is that it will not work and will cause great harm to hundreds of millions of people.

Wedbush Goes There: "Beware The Panics And Crashes Of March"

As if several markets tumbles and heartstopping short squeezes in just the first two months of 2016 have not been enough to turn professional traders' hair prematurely gray and drive all retail daytraders permanently out of the "market", here is a warning from Wedbush's otherwise quite somber repo market analyst, Scott Skyrm, according to whom the volatility is only just starting.