Trump’s corporate tax cut is supply-side stimulus I could agree with if done right, even though it primarily helps the rich. Trump's cut of the top rate from 35% to 15% is the largest of its kind in the history the United States.
"...after every single two-term presidential election (i.e. when the incumbent changes) and there is a 100% track record of a recession within the next 12 months. It either starts just beforehand or starts afterward, but within 12 months there is a 100% chance of a recession... Even if they do raise rates, the yield curve will flatten like crazy... I think the Fed is almost an irrelevance at this point."
The problem for the Fed is that once again the window for a “rate hike” has likely closed. Economic uncertainty, deflationary threats, and market volatility will keep them boxed in for now. Unfortunately, the recent spike in LIBOR has likely already done a bigger job of tightening monetary policy than the Fed actually intended to do. This could cause problems in the not too distant future.
"The above raises an issue for non-government borrowers of US dollars such as Japanese mega banks. For example GREED & fear heard this week in Tokyo that one major Japanese bank is borrowing US$60bn from money market funds."
There was one question everyone wanted answered in John Stumpf's interview with the WSJ today: who does the buck stop with at Wells Fargo? Alas it remained unanswered - Stumpf wouldn’t comment on who was ultimately responsible for the practices and sales-driven culture that led employees to open as many as two million accounts without customers’ knowledge. Stumpf said that at the bank, "There was no incentive to do bad things."
Goldman has been using the proceeds from the new deposits to directly fund speculative activity such as trading and investments, as well as more conventional activity such as creating looans. Goldman Sachs built up its consumer bank, led by 40-year-old Goldman partner and credit trading veteran Gerald Ouderkirk, whose job is to use consumer deposits and other types of funding for trades, investments and loans.
Carrie Tolstedt, the Wells Fargo executive who was in charge of the unit where employees engaged in "massive fraud"and opened more than 2 million unauthorized customer accounts, a routine practice that employees internally referred to as “sandbagging”, is leaving the giant bank with an enormous pay day, some $125 million.
On the current path, the world is experiencing the largest artificial asset allocation in modern history, one that is driven by a misguided interest rate regime that has lost its efficacy and is producing more harm than good. Yet the fear of withdrawal pain is keeping central bankers from doing the inevitable: Quit. The response is predictable: "I need the drugs!"
The old Wall Street expression is “They don’t ring a bell at the top.” This snarky adage is usually employed by those saddened financial managers who ride a successful investment to a peak and then watch in horror as it reverses course to a level below their cost basis. A pity this notion is misguided, since the market frequently “rings the bell.” It is just that most market participants are not listening. Perhaps they should be listening now.
... the more we embrace and encourage state-directed magical thinking, whether it’s of the monetary or fiscal policy sort, what we are actually doing is opening the city gates to the old evil magic and the alt-priests of fascism and totalitarianism.
Once again FOMC policy is at odds with what is taking place in deeper and far more intellectually-sound money markets. The TED spread confirms risk not policy as the underlying mechanism, while the eurodollar futures price reveals the growing pessimism about what that could mean for the intermediate and long terms in real economic conditions.