LIBOR

Since there are now numerous hard proofs that China’s export data (and to some extent import data as well) were significantly distorted recently, we naturally wonder the incentives behind the distortion and the detailed mechanism of these manipulations. As BofAML notes, there are four reasons why the distortions have risen so sharply since Q4 2012 but the various arbitrages (described in actionable detail below) between onshore and offshore currencies and interest rate differentials (and the role of gold in this) remain in place to make judging China's real trade growth as much art as science.

The gold and bond markets have been "saying" that QE is ending for the past few months. The equity and junk markets have largely ignored the signs. June is setting up as an interesting month.

European Union Launches Investigation Into Manipulation of Oil Prices Since 2002

• Mine union threatens to bring South Africa to 'standstill' (Reuters)
• Russia Raises Stakes in Syria (WSJ) - as reported here yesterday 
• Japan buys into US shale gas boom (FT)
• Bill Gates Retakes World’s Richest Title From Carlos Slim (BBG) - so he can afford a Tesla now?
• China Wages Rose Sharply in 2012 (WSJ)
• Regulators Target Exchanges As They Ready Record Fine (WSJ)
• Citi Takes Some Traders Off Bloomberg Chat Tool (WSJ)
• After Google, Amazon to be grilled on UK tax presence (Reuters)
• Apple CEO Cook to Propose Tax Reform for Offshore Cash (BBG)
• French, German politicians to pressure Google on tax (Reuters)
• Gold Bears Revived as Rout Resumes After Coin Rush (BBG)
• A stretched Samsung chases rival Apple's suppliers (Reuters)

• As scandals mount, White House springs into damage control (Reuters)
• Glencore Xstrata chairman ousted in surprise coup (Reuters), former BP CEO Tony Hayward appointed as interim chairman (WSJ)
• JPMorgan Chase asks Bloomberg for data records (Telegraph)
• Platts Retains Energy Trader Confidence Amid Price-Fix Probe (BBG)
• Syrian Internet service comes back online (PCWorld)
• Japan Q1 growth hits 3.5% on Abe impact although fall in business investment clouds optimism for recovery (FT)
• Soros Joins Gold-Stake Cuts Before Bear Market Drop (BBG)
• Factory Ceiling Collapses in Cambodia (WSJ)
• Sony’s $100 Billion Lost Decade Supports Loeb Breakup (BBG)
• Snags await favourite for Federal Reserve job (FT)
• James Bond’s Pinewood Turned Down on $300 Million Plan (BBG)

After the Libor rigging scandal in 2012, authorities have sharpened their act, deeply scrutinizing company financial records, and implementing stricter regulations. This has led to a new investigation which has led European authorities to raid the offices of Shell, BP, and Statoil, in what is suspected to be one of the largest international actions since Libor. The Commission has "concerns that the companies may have colluded in reporting distorted prices to a price reporting agency to manipulate the published prices for a number of oil and biofuel products."

• Hilsenrath: A Top Contender at the Fed Faces Test Over Easy Money (WSJ)
• Yen drops further as G7 avoids criticizing Japan (Reuters)
• Markets missed Flaherty’s clues on next Bank of Canada chief (G&M)
• Republicans turn screws over Tea Party tax probes (FT)
• Dual-track Libor replacement lined up (FT)
• Risks to China recovery seen as factory output underwhelms (Reuters)
• Barack Obama’s goal of universal healthcare could be set back significantly by Texas Governor Rick Perry (FT)
• Gold Bears Pull $20.8 Billion as BlackRock Says Buy (BBG)
• Mexico sets shelters as volcano shakes, spews ash (AP)
• Europe Eases Corporate Tax Dodge as Worker Burdens Rise (BBG)
• IPOs Set to Raise Most Cash Since Crisis (WSJ)
• Melting Ice Opens Fight Over Sea Routes for Arctic Debate (BBG)
• Top hedge funds bet on Greek banks (FT)
• Icahn Asks Investors to Make Big Bet on a Debt-Laden Dell (BBG)

When it is on the receiving end of coure.

Think frontrunning clients, trading against recommendations, manipulating LIBOR, and slamming gold at the London fixing is all investment bankers do? Wrong. What really happens in banker life is far more exciting and enjoyable (at least for preferred banker clients) as the following story by the WSJ's David Enrich shows. In reality, the activities that bankers seem to spend the most time on, is treating their "preferred clients" with free gambling trips to Las Vegas, skiing in Chamonix, flying wives and girlfriends in helicopters, doing blow in industrial amounts, and, of course, cavorting with strippers and hookers. All paid for by some unwitting clients of course. It is this environment of utter and perfectly permitted, if not encouraged, debauchery that allowed scandals such as the Libor fixing "conspiracy" (first theory, then fact of course), to flourish, and which makes being a banker still the most desired job in the world (contrary to beliefs that it was all about the passion of crunching goalseeked DCFs at 2 am in the morning).

• The number of bond funds that own stocks has surged to its highest point in at least 18 years (WSJ)
• Clubby London Trading Scene Fostered Libor Rate-Fixing Scandal (WSJ)
• Cheap money bankrolls Wall Street's bet on housing (Reuters)
• Bank of Japan reveals concerns over easing policy (FT)
• iPads and low-end rivals propel higher tablet shipments  (Reuters)
• China Cyberspies Outwit U.S. Stealing Military Secrets (BBG)
• Draghi Fuels Bets on Rate Cut With Risk of Limited Impact (BBG)
• China guides renminbi to fresh high against US dollar (FT)
• Japan is preparing to start up a massive nuclear-fuel reprocessing plant (WSJ)
• Apple’s Ive Seen Risking iOS 7 Delay on Software Overhaul (BBG)
• UBS faces calls for break-up at investor meeting (Reuters)

As we reported well over a year ago coupled with some subsequent thoughts on what the inevitable launch of floating rate notes (FRNs) by the US Treasury means for the US bond market, we now learn that the launch of FRN Treasurys is imminent and the first US FRN note may come to the public as soon as a few months from now. As the Treasury's refunding statement issued moments ago announced, "we plan to issue a final rule on floating rate notes in the coming months, with the first FRN auction estimated to occur in either Q4 2013 or Q1 2014.  This timeframe reflects Treasury's best estimate for implementing required auction regulations and IT systems modifications. Treasury will provide additional information regarding the timing of the first auction at the August refunding."

The Illuminati were amateurs. The second huge financial scandal of the year reveals the real international conspiracy: There's no price the big banks can't fix. Conspiracy theorists of the world, believers in the hidden hands of the Rothschilds and the Masons and the Illuminati, we skeptics owe you an apology. You were right. The players may be a little different, but your basic premise is correct: The world is a rigged game. We found this out in recent months, when a series of related corruption stories spilled out of the financial sector, suggesting the world's largest banks may be fixing the prices of, well, just about everything.

• Reinhart and Rogoff: Responding to Our Critics (NYT)
• Differences with centre-right delay Italy's Letta (Reuters)
• Italy's Letta moves forward to shape government (Reuters)
• China’s leaders warn on financial risks (FT)
• Norway oil fund makes big move from bonds to stocks (FT) - worked wonders for the Bank of Israel
• Smuggling milk is the new smuggling heroin in HK: Milk Smugglers Top Heroin Courier Arrests in Hong Kong (BBG)
• RenTec's mean reversion models fail on BOJ lunacy: Yen Bets Don't Add Up for a Fund Giant (WSJ)
• From 'Fabulous Fab' to Grad Student (WSJ)
• BOJ in credibility test as divisions emerge over inflation target (Reuters)
• Boston Bombing Suspect Moved from hospital to prison (WSJ)
• Provopoulos Says ECB May Never Need to Use Bond-Buying Program (BBG) which is good because, legally, it doesn't exist

The paper price of gold crashed to $1,325 in the wake of this huge trade. It is now hovering around $1,400. Our first reaction is to suggest that this is only an aberration, and that the fundamentals of the depreciating value of paper currencies will eventually take the price of gold much higher, making it a buying opportunity. But what we can't predict is whether big players might again deliver short-term downturns to the market. The momentum in the futures market can make swings surprisingly larger than the fundamentals of currency valuation would suggest; but the fundamentals will drive the long-term market more than these short-term events. The fight between pricing from the physical market for bullion and that from the "paper market" of futures is showing signs of discrimination and disagreement, as the physical market is booming, while prices set by futures are seemingly pressured to go nowhere. In short, we think this is a strong buying opportunity.

The $20 billion gold futures sale and concentrated selling of gold futures on the COMEX on Friday and Monday is far more likely to be “nefarious” than the gold fixings in London. The CFTC’s track record to date has not been great and regulatory capture remains a real risk with the CFTC seeming to be reluctant to hold Wall Street banks who may be involved in price manipulation in the futures market to account. After the Libor revelations, it is surprising that there is not more scrutiny and hard questions asked of banks and regulators in this regard. Separately, large institutional fund manager Blackrock said that there was “no visible central bank activity” as the gold price plunged.  They said that gold's fundamentals remain strong and that the fall in price was driven by an outflow of "hot money" and that gold prices are now near the marginal cost of new supply which should provide strong support at these levels and lead to higher prices again.