LIBOR

Currency Wars Escalate As Fed Treasuries In Custody Tumble To 2012 Lows

The latest custody data from the Fed shows that reserve manager holdings of Treasuries has tumbled by $17 billion in the past week, to the lowest effective level since late 2012. The prevailing hypothesis is that smaller central banks and reserve managers sell US paper to defend their currencies, while OPEC countries such as Saudi Arabia are quietly raising cash in an environment of low oil prices and acute budgetary tightness.

Insanity, Oddities, And Dark Clouds In Credit-Land

Distortions in financial markets keep growing, as central banks all over the world are desperately intensifying monetary pumping. What is currently happening in various bond markets as a result of this and other interventions is simply jaw-dropping insanity. It is not so much that it defies rational explanation – in fact, all of these moves can be explained. What makes the situation so troubling is the fact that investors seem to be oblivious to the enormous risks they are taking.  They are sitting on a powder keg.

Connect Just Two Dots, See All The Rest

Dealers, the bedrock of the global monetary system, are hoarding collateral and it shows. That, however, doesn’t fit within the recovery narrative, so the media resorts to the easy and absurd to obscure what “should” not be happening...

Rising Recession Risks & The Tears In America's Economic Fabric

Stock market “bulls” should pray that interest rates don’t rise. Don’t blame those poor consumers for not spending – they are spending everything they have and then some. Just one word describes the outcome of that event given the current excessively leveraged consumption based economy of today – disaster.

As Libor Blows Out To Fresh 6 Year Highs, A $28 Trillion Debt Question Emerges

while blowing out unsecured funding rates may no longer be a flashing red flag, a question has emerged as a lot of debt references Libor, debt ranging from household debt to non-financial business debt: some $28 trillion of it, to be specific, and just in the US. The question is just how concerned will the borrowers of said debt be once they get their next due balance.

Forget The Fed’s 0.25%, Short-Term Rates Have Already Risen By 1% For The Real World

The Fed has only raised rates once (+0.25%) in this so-called tightening cycle but the short-term rate where the rubber meets the road, Libor, has tightened by nearly 1% (1yr Libor), and it has risen more than 30 basis points in the last 5 weeks! This has put 4 times the Fed’s tightening pressure on all types of US Dollar borrowers around the world; from adjustable mortgages to student loans to financing for ships. This should be a major concern for the Fed.

What The Sudden Spike In The TED-Spread Really Means

Due to the latest government intervention, differentiating between the signal of real market stress and the noise resulting from the shift due to 2a-7 reform, will now be impossible, and thus it will also be impossible to gauge if there is something truly broken with the market, at least until such a "breakage" becomes all too apparent for everyone to see.

Why Swap Spreads Are Suddenly Blowing Out And Why This Is Good For Treasuries

Over the past week, market watchers have noticed something which otherwise could be seen as a warning signal: there has been a dramatic move in swap spreads space, notably a substantial widening in recent days from what was until recently record tight - and negative - levels, coupled with a blow out in FX swaps, where the EURUSD has seen its cross-currency swap slide -3 bps today to -48 bps, the widest since July 2012. What does this mean, and what are the implications? Read on for the explanation.

Charting The Epic Collapse Of The World's Most Systemically Dangerous Bank

It’s been almost 10 years in the making, but the fate of one of Europe’s most important financial institutions appears to be sealed. But, if the deaths of Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns were quick and painless, the coming demise of Deutsche Bank has been long, drawn out, and painful.

Ex-Barclays Traders Jailed For Over 6 Years Over Libor-Rigging

Just days after Hillary Clinton is found to have negligently broken laws but faced no charges, four former Barclays bankers appear to have been scapegoated over their libor-rigging. 45-year-old Jay Merchant was the hardest hit - sentenced to 6 1/2 Years in prison.

Frontrunning: July 7

  • Global stocks and sterling bounce after Brexit bashing (Reuters)
  • FBI director to face Republican fire over Clinton email probe (Reuters)
  • UK's Hammond says Article 50 a decision for government, not parliament (Reuters)
  • GOP Puts Pressure on Clinton, FBI After Lynch Closes Email Probe (WSJ)
  • Gold’s Most Accurate Forecaster Says Prices May Go to $1,425 (BBG)
  • Central Banks Put Squeeze on Sovereign-Debt Market (WSJ)