LIBOR

Frontrunning: July 7

  • Global stocks and sterling bounce after Brexit bashing (Reuters)
  • FBI director to face Republican fire over Clinton email probe (Reuters)
  • UK's Hammond says Article 50 a decision for government, not parliament (Reuters)
  • GOP Puts Pressure on Clinton, FBI After Lynch Closes Email Probe (WSJ)
  • Gold’s Most Accurate Forecaster Says Prices May Go to $1,425 (BBG)
  • Central Banks Put Squeeze on Sovereign-Debt Market (WSJ)

Three Former Barclays Traders Convicted Of LIBOR Manipulation

The first bank to admit that it engaged in massive manipulation of the LIBOR rate was Barclays back in 2012, and traders are still being scapegoated tried in court to this day. As Bloomberg reports, five traders learned their fate recently, nearly four years since the bank admitted to the charge. Three traders were convicted, while the jury was unable to reach a verdict on the final two.

Is A New Banking Crisis Imminent? Recent Rise In Delinquency Rates Is Shocking

In 2006 it was exactly twelve months after delinquency rates bottomed that the recession began. If the same period applies, we are due for a recession. In the first quarter of the Great Recession in 2008, delinquency rates were only 1.45%. We are already above that level. The fact that increasing loan delinquency coincides with mountains of debt maturing in 2016 and 2017 is a topic for next time.

Brits Lead Revolt Against Age Of Inequality, BofAML Favors "Gold, Vol, & Cash Positions"

Brexit is the biggest electorate riposte yet to The Age Of Inequality created by policymakers to save (some) of the world, and as BofAML's Michael Hartnett warns, investors must anticipate a shift to an increasingly populist policy response. The backdrop of Quantitative Failure nonetheless means a renewed bull market in risk assets is impossible unless fiscal policy can quickly arrest the downside in GDP & EPS forecasts.

Why Are So Many Bankers Committing Suicide?

"Yes he killed himself. But there’s a question: could it be suicide by extortion... There’s a couple suspicions I have..." - son of Deutsche Bank exec William Broeksmit

Why The Fed Is Trapped: A 1% Increase In Rates Would Result In Up To $2.4 Trillion Of Losses

As the Fed has rushed headlong into boosting interest rates, it forgot one small thing: combining a duration estimate of 5.6 years with a total notional exposure of $17trn, and current Dollar price of bonds of $105.6, indicates that, to first order, a 100bp shock to interest rates would translate into a $1trn market value loss. That is using the more conservative estimate of the bond market. Using the broader bond market sizing of $40trn, the market value loss estimate would be $2.4 trillion. And just like that the Fed is trapped.

The Rise Of The Meta Criminal: Is The NSA Manipulating The Stock Market?

Embedded deep in the much-heralded December 2013 White House task force report on spying and snooping, under recommendations, is this nugget: “Governments should not use their offensive cyber capabilities to change the amounts held in financial accounts or otherwise manipulate financial systems.” We quite rightly wondered: why were these warnings in the report?

Frontrunning: June 3

  • World stocks edge toward one-month high; U.S. jobs data eyed for Fed clues (Reuters)
  • Commodities Stand on Brink of Bull Market After Oil’s Recovery (BBG)
  • Brent crude oil holds above $50 on signs of rebalance (Reuters)
  • Clinton attacks Trump's foreign policy as a threat to U.S. safety (Reuters)
  • Trump strikes back at Clinton's 'phony' speech (Hill)
  • "We want food!', Venezuelans cry at protest near presidency (Reuters)

Mafia Expert Calls Great Britain The "Most Corrupt Place On Earth"

“If I asked you what is the most corrupt place on Earth you might tell me well it’s Afghanistan, maybe Greece, Nigeria, the South of Italy and I will tell you it’s the UK... It’s not the bureaucracy, it’s not the police, it’s not the politics but what is corrupt is the financial capital. 90 per cent of the owners of capital in London have their headquarters offshore."