Bill Gross

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Frontrunning: December 15





  • Sydney Siege Sparks Muslim Call for Calm Amid Backlash Fear (BBG)
  • Oil Spilling Over Into Central Bank Policy as Fed Enters Fray (BBG)
  • Biggest LBO of 2014: BC Partners to acquire PetSmart for $8.7 billion (Reuters)
  • Tremble algos: the SEC has hired... "QUANTS" (WSJ)
  • When the bubble just isn't bubbly enough: There’s $1.7 Trillion Locked Out of China’s Stock Rally (BBG)
  • Oil price slide roils emerging markets, yen rises (Reuters) - may want to hit F5 on that
  • Libya Imposes Force Majeure on 2 Oil Ports After Clashes (BBG) ... and will resume production in days
  • Amid Crisis, Pimco Steadies Itself (WSJ)
 
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Interest Rates Have Nowhere To Go But Up... Right?





With interest rates near their lowest levels on record, they have nowhere to go from here "but up." This is the consensus of virtually all of the analysts and economists on Wall Street which currently suggests that rates will rise to 3.88% next year on the 30-year treasury. Is everyone still wrong?

 
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About That 2100 S&P Target For 2015, Goldman Was Only Kidding, Now Sees Even More Ridiculous Multiple Expansion





It was just one short month ago when, on the back of the soaring dollar (which has since soared even more), as well as "diminished global GDP growth and lower crude prices", Goldman's David Kostin cut his EPS for 2015 and 2016 from $125 and $132 to $122 and $131. Then, it was just two short weeks ago, the same David Kostin said "we expect the P/E will contract and the index will slip during the second-half of 2015 as the Fed takes its first step in the long-awaited tightening cycle. Our S&P 500 year-end 2015 target of 2100 implies a modest 5-10% P/E multiple compression to 16.0x our top-down 2016 EPS estimate or 14.6x bottom-up consensus earnings estimates." And then, with the S&P now about 20 points away from Goldman's 2015 year end target (and just 120 points from the government-backed hedge fund's 2016 year end target!), the very same David Kostin admits that he was only kidding and that the S&P may in fact rise to a whopping 2300 in the coming year...

 
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It's All Coming To An End, Bill Gross Warns





“Can a debt crisis be cured with more debt?” it is difficult to envision a return to normalcy within my lifetime (shorter than it is for most of you). I suspect future generations will be asking current policymakers the same thing that many of us now ask about public smoking, or discrimination against gays, or any other wrong turn in the process of being righted. How could they? How could policymakers have allowed so much debt to be created in the first place, and then failed to regulate their own system accordingly? How could they have thought that money printing and debt creation could create wealth instead of just more and more debt? How could fiscal authorities have stood by and attempted to balance budgets as opposed to borrowing cheaply and investing the proceeds in infrastructure and innovation? It has been a nursery rhyme experience for sure, but more than likely without a fairytale ending.

 
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Here Is The Reason Why The Average Lifespan Of US Corporations Has Never Been Shorter





Just another "unintended consequence" of modern non-stakeholder capitalism and central-planning.

 
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Veteran S&P Futures Trader: "I Am 100% Confident That Central Banks Are Buying S&P Futures"





"This last 1900 point Dow Jones push upwards - and the Ebola events leading into it - it was so orchestrated and heightened at critical points but the ascent and push straight up in price, and sideways nonreaction after was completely unlike anything I've seen before.   After going up for a record-breaking amount of time the last five or so years, in a nonlinear exponential mania type of ascent, there should normally be tremendous volatility that follows... After this year and especially this last 1900 point Dow run up in October, and post non-reaction, that I am 100 percent confident that that one buyer is our own Federal Reserve or other central banks with a goal to "stimulate" our economy by directly buying stock index futures."

 
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Pimco Paid Gross, El-Erian Over Half A Billion Dollars In 2013 Bonuses





PIMCO PAID GROSS $290 MILLION BONUS FOR 2013, DOCUMENT SHOWS
PIMCO PAID FORMER CEO EL-ERIAN ABOUT $230 MLN BONUS IN 2013

 
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Frontrunning: November 6





  • LOL@Fundamentals: European Stocks Fall as Investors Seek Stimulus Clarity (BBG)
  • Obama, Republicans sound conciliatory note but battles loom (Reuters)
  • Firms drop Pimco funds from managed accounts (Reuters)
  • Not All QE Is Created Equal as U.S. Outpunches ECB-BOJ (BBG)
  • Ukraine Accuses Russia of Sending Troops as Truce Wobbles (BBG)
  • Lenovo Slumps After Projecting China ‘Hypergrowth’ to End (BBG)
  • Palo Alto Networks discovers new malware targeted at Apple devices (Reuters)
  • IPO That Brought In $1 Billion in March Implodes in Denmark (BBG)
 
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Charting The Devastation At PIMCO





We applaud PIMCO's attempt to stem the bleeding, however by publicly confronting such a critical, for any asset manager, topic as fund outflows and even providing a handy daily chart of outflows, we fear it will only push the situation from bad to worse, as increasingly more investors ask themselves: "what are we missing." Especially since the appropriate chart to focus on is not the one showing the outflows from the TRF since September, but the one below, showing the epic devastation that the flagship fund, the Total Return Fund, of the world's largest bond manager, has suffered since April 2013, when its AUM peaked at just inder $300 billion, and fast foward to October 2014, when it is now a whopping 42% lower and declining fast.

 
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Frontrunning: November 5





  • From Yes We Can to Probably Not (BBG)
  • How Mitch McConnell did it (Politico)
  • Tough road ahead for Obama after Republicans seize Senate (Reuters)
  • Election 2014: Who were the big winners and losers? (USA Today)
  • GOP Senate Takeover Puts Fed on Hot Seat (WSJ), and other fables
  • GOP Won by Recruiting the Right Candidates (WSJ)
  • McCain could shake up U.S. defense in powerful new Senate role (Reuters)
  • Investors Pulled Record Amount From Pimco’s Flagship Fund in October (WSJ)
  • Taliban group threatens to attack India following border blast (Reuters)
  • Oil Import Decline to U.S. Revealed by Louisiana as Truth (BBG)
 
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Futures Levitate On "Republican Rally"; Crude Rout Continues





While hardly a surprise, the spin for the latest round of overnight BOJ USDJPY-buying exuberance, which sent the pair higher by another 100 pips to a fresh 7 year high of 114.500 and just over 500 pips from the Albert Edwards "line in the sand" 120 and pushed US equity futures higher with it, has been the Republican sweep in the midterm elections which not only solidified GOP control of the House but also gave Republicans outright control of the Senate.

 
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Into The Unknown





“On October 15th 2014, if only for a few short minutes, market forces broke out and the failure of central bankers was briefly evident... There is a very simple lesson that when the markets finally break through the manipulation they move to price in deflation and not inflation. This is key because it means financial repression has failed.” These days, you don’t tend to hear the words ‘failure’ and ‘central bankers’ in the same sentence (unless the topic happens to be Zimbabwe). But perhaps the omniscience and omnipotence of central bankers is somewhat overstated.

 
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Alan Greenspan To Marc Faber: "I Never Said The Fed Was Independent"





"I was on a panel with Alan Greenspan a week ago... I said, you mean to say that the Federal Reserve is not independent? He immediately said, Marc, I never said the Fed was independent. In other words, the Fed and the Treasury and the government is basically one and the same."

"Japan is engaged in a Ponzi scheme"

"The oil price decline is not necessarily very good for the US - if oil prices went lower, it may actually have an adverse impact on the US economy"

 
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Bill Gross Warns "Global Economy & Financial Markets Are Insecurely Grounded"





"Perhaps sooner rather than later, investors must recognize that modern day inflation, while a necessary condition for survival, is not a sufficient condition for increasing wealth at a rate necessary to satisfy future liabilities associated with education, health care, and a satisfactory retirement. The real economy needs money printing, yes, but money spending more so, and that must come from the fiscal side – from the dreaded government side – where deficits are anathema and balanced budgets are increasingly in vogue. Until then, deflation remains a growing possibility – not the kind that creates prosperity but the kind that’s the trouble for prosperity."

 
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Flat Futures Foreshadow FOMC Statement Despite Facebook Flameout





As Deutsche Bank observes, the Fed has been wanting to hike rates on a rolling 6-12 month horizon from each recent meeting but never imminently which always makes the actual decision subject to events some time ahead. They have seen a shock in the last few weeks and a downgrade to global growth prospects so will for now likely err on the side of being more dovish than in the last couple of meetings. They probably won't want to notably reverse the recent market repricing of the Fed Funds contract for now even if they disagree with it. However any future improvements in the global picture will likely lead them to step-up the rate rising rhetoric again and for us this will again lead to issues for financial markets addicted to liquidity. And so the loop will go on for some time yet and will likely trap the Fed into being more dovish than they would ideally want to be in 2015.

 
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