"There is quite significant uncertainty about what's actually going to happen, I don’t think anyone quite knows what’s going to come out of the process which involves both the administration and Congress in the deciding of fiscal policy and a variety of other things."
"The important point to note here is the historical deviation between exuberance and economic realities has generally NOT been resolved by reality catching up with fantasy. It has always been the other way around."
An unexpectedly bearish BlackRock Chief Executive Larry Fink said the U.S. economy is in the midst of a slowdown and financial markets could see a significant setback. "I see a lot of dark shadows," he said at an event hosted by Yahoo. "The markets are probably ahead of themselves."
“The big picture for investors is this: Trump is high volatility, and investors generally abhor volatility and shun uncertainty... If things go wrong, we could find ourselves at the beginning of a lengthy decline in dollar hegemony, a rapid rise in interest rates and inflation, and global angst...”
According to Mario Draghi, portfolio manager of the world's biggest hedge fund, it is not his gargantuan balance sheet equal to 36% of the eurozone GDP, nor the $14 trillion in global central bank liquifity that will be responsible for the next market crash, but that Donald Trump's deregulation of the banking industry has "sown the seeds of the next financial crisis."
"The ECB and BOJ are buying $150 billion a month of their own bonds and much of that money then flows from 10 basis points JGB's and 45 basis point Bunds into 2.45% U.S. Treasuries.... I would venture a guess that without QE from the ECB and BOJ that 10-year U.S. Treasuries would rather quickly rise to 3.5% and the U.S. economy would sink into recession."
Following today's jobs report, the market's reaction to the unexpectedly strong January payrolls visualized in the charts below, is straightforward: the disappointing wage growth is an indication that the Fed may not hike rates for quite a bit longer than expected, and will likely will be forced to reduce its rate hike expectations from 3 to 2 (in line with the market) or fewer if wage growth continue to stagnate.
"I don't buy it at all" exclaims Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg in a recent interview with MacroVoices.com, "look all I'll say is that in 2009, 2010 when the Fed embarked on QE, along with 0% interest rates every Tom, Dick and Harry portfolio manager and bond market pundit out there was screaming about the end of the secular bull market in bonds," and they were all wrong.
The “bond shock” story bubbles away in the background. And with the next 50-75bps rise in yields (due to perhaps expectations of trade wars or Chinese repatriation, or even further gains in inflation), the risk of a financial “event” is likely to jump. 2016 started with pessimism and ended with optimism; 2017 starts with optimism…
"3% is basically the beginning of the end... as the business cycle ages, in 2019, 2020 when we could anticipate we might have another recession, that there will be another deflationary burst that will bring rates back down if we do get above 3%, but we haven't violated that trend yet."