Bill Gross

Bond Bears Bewildered - The Case For US Treasuries

While conventional wisdom suggests that US government bond yields have nowhere to go but up, we believe the economic fundamentals will continue to weigh on interest rates for the foreseeable future.

How The Pros Do It: Tepper Added 75% To Longs After Saying "Now A Good Time To Take Money Off The Table"

Back in September, David Tepper told BBG TV that "it might be a good time to take money off the table." That's what he said. What did he do? According to his latest 13F as the market was surging in the final quarter of 2015, Tepper was busy buying. So busy in fact, that he took his total long notional exposure to $5 billion an increase of 75%, in the process adding 40% to his longs. 

Buyer's Remorse? Axel Merk Warns "The Fed Doesn't Have A Clue!"

"The Fed doesn't have a clue!" - We allege that not only because the Fed appears to admit as much, but also because our own analysis leads to no other conclusion. With Fed communication in what we believe is disarray, we expect the market to continue to cascade lower - think what happened in 2000. To understand what's unfolding we need to understand how the Fed is looking at the markets, and how the markets are looking at the Fed.

Frontrunning: February 5

  • January Jobs Report Closely Watched for Momentum, Wages (WSJ)
  • Oil prices steady, weak fundamentals weigh after volatile week (Reuters)
  • How Much Global Oil Output Halted Due to Low Prices? Just 0.1% (BBG)
  • Congress Tweet 'Unfortunate,' Lawyer Says as Shkreli Goes Online (BBG)
  • Syrians Flee Aleppo to Escape Damascus Offensive Against Rebels (WSJ)
  • Dollar Set for Biggest Weekly Loss Since 2009 Before Jobs Data (BBG)

Futures Unchanged, Global Stock Algos Anemic Ahead Of U.S. Payrolls Report

US futures were largely unchanged overnight, with a modest bounce after the European close driven by a feeble attempt to push oil higher, faded quickly and as of this moment the E-mini was hugging the flatline ahead of today's main event - the January payrolls, expected to print at 190K and 5.0% unemployment, however the whisper number - that required to push stocks higher - is well lower, at 150K (according to DB), as only a bad (in fact very bad) jobs number today will cement the Fed's relent and assure no more rate hikes in 2016 as the market now largely expects.

Bill Gross Trolls "Addled, Impotent" Central Bankers, Asks "How's It Workin' For Ya?"

"Why after several decades of 0% rates has the Japanese economy failed to respond? Why has the U.S. only averaged 2% real growth since the end of the Great Recession? “How’s it workin’ for ya?” – would be a curt, logical summary of the impotency of low interest rates to generate acceptable economic growth worldwide. "

China Promises To Keep Intervening To "Look After" Stock Market "Investors", Hurt "Speculators"

In the most blatant and open admission of direct manipulation, China's Vice President Li told a room full of Davosian elites that China is willing to keep intervening in the stock market to make sure that a few speculators don’t benefit at the expense of regular investors. Following last night's largest liquidty injection in over 3 years (and subsequent plunge in Chinese stocks), it appears the Chinese economic/market "bucket" has more holes than the intervention 'hose pipe' can handle.

The Fed's Stunning Admission Of What Happens Next

"The events of 1929 taught us that the absence of any rise in prices did not prove that no crisis was pending. 1937 has taught us that an abundant supply of gold and a cheap money policy do not prevent prices from falling."