Everything went from bad to worse once Europe opened, and things started going "bump in the morning" across the European banking sector, where not only has it been more of the same with CDS spreads for major banks - most notably Deutsche Bank - continuing their surge wider, but also EM spreads to Bunds all following, with the Portugal-Germany Yield spread blowing out above 300 bps for the first time since 2014, and other peripheral nations following.
- January Jobs Report Closely Watched for Momentum, Wages (WSJ)
- Oil prices steady, weak fundamentals weigh after volatile week (Reuters)
- How Much Global Oil Output Halted Due to Low Prices? Just 0.1% (BBG)
- Congress Tweet 'Unfortunate,' Lawyer Says as Shkreli Goes Online (BBG)
- Syrians Flee Aleppo to Escape Damascus Offensive Against Rebels (WSJ)
- Dollar Set for Biggest Weekly Loss Since 2009 Before Jobs Data (BBG)
US futures were largely unchanged overnight, with a modest bounce after the European close driven by a feeble attempt to push oil higher, faded quickly and as of this moment the E-mini was hugging the flatline ahead of today's main event - the January payrolls, expected to print at 190K and 5.0% unemployment, however the whisper number - that required to push stocks higher - is well lower, at 150K (according to DB), as only a bad (in fact very bad) jobs number today will cement the Fed's relent and assure no more rate hikes in 2016 as the market now largely expects.
- EU Slashes 2016 Inflation Forecast to 0.5% as Growth Seen Slower (BBG)
- Bank of England cuts UK growth forecasts (FT)
- Investors Cast Wary Eye on Fed Rate Increases (WSJ)
- U.N. halts Syria talks as government closes in on Aleppo (Reuters)
- Credit Suisse Drops as Investment Bank Slump Deepens Losses (BBG)
- Six OPEC states ready for emergency meeting with non-OPEC members — Venezuela's minister (TASS)
After yesterday's torrid, chaotic moves in the market, where an initial drop in stocks was quickly pared and led to a surge into the close after a weaker dollar on the heels of even more disappointing US data and Bill Dudley's "serious consequences" speech sent oil soaring and put the "Fed Relent" scenario squarely back on the table, overnight we have seen more global equity strength on the back of a weaker dollar, even if said weakness hurt Kuroda's post-NIRP world and the Nikkei erased virtually all losses since last Friday's surprising negative rate announcement. Oil and metals also rose piggybacking on the continued dollar weakness as the word's most crowded trade was suddenly shaken out.
"Why after several decades of 0% rates has the Japanese economy failed to respond? Why has the U.S. only averaged 2% real growth since the end of the Great Recession? “How’s it workin’ for ya?” – would be a curt, logical summary of the impotency of low interest rates to generate acceptable economic growth worldwide. "
- China shares end at 14-month lows after late selling frenzy (Reuters)
- China Dec gold imports through Hong Kong highest since 2013 (Reuters)
- China Contagion Fades as European Stocks Pare Drop, Oil Rises (BBG)
- Apple set for slowest ever iPhone sales growth (Reuters)
- Saudis, Russia Seen by Iraq as More Flexible on Oil-Output Cuts (BBG)
- China Probes NEV sector for subsidy fraud (China Daily)
"The new Portuguese administration is not the first government to resort to asset confiscation and populist expediency. Venezuela and Argentina also belong to this club. The important distinction is that Portugal is a eurozone member state, and its systemically important banks are regulated by the ECB."
With just two days left in 2015, the main driver of overnight global stocks and US equity futures remains the most familiar one of all of 2015 - crude oil, which, after its latest torrid bounce yesterday has resumed the familiar "yoyo" mode, and again stumbled dropping below $37 on yesterday's surprising API 2.9 million crude inventory build, as well several more long-term "forecasts" by OPEC members, with Kuwait now budgeting for $30 oil, while Venezuela's Maduro said the oil price fell to $28/bbl and is "headed downward." As a result U.S. futures declined and European stocks fell, extending their worst December drop since 2002 in thin volume on the last full trading day of the year.
- Battered oil wins respite, lifts stocks (Reuters)
- Oil Halts Decline as Emerging Market Stocks Climb on China (BBG)
- Bonds Set to Beat Stocks Globally in 2015 After China Falters (BBG)
- SpaceX Falcon rocket nails safe landing in pivotal space feat (Reuters)
- China Leaders Flag More Stimulus After Top Economic Meeting (BBG)
- SEC to Retrench Case Against SAC’s Steven A. Cohen (WSJ)
The Next Leg Of The Junk Bond Crisis: Third Avenue "Focused Credit Fund" Liquidates, Gates RedemptionsSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 12/10/2015 15:48 -0500
"Third Avenue is extremely disappointed that we must take this action"...
- Anti-Trump Effort Launches Super PAC (WSJ)
- Muslims decry Trump's proposal to keep them out of US (AP)
- Debate Heats Up Over No-Fly List, Gun Sales (WSJ)
- OPEC Takes Down Oil Majors as Lower-for-Even-Longer Kicks In (BBG)
- Chinese Companies Are Trapped in IPO Logjam (WSJ)
- Republican Ted Cruz vaults into first place in new Iowa poll (Reuters)
The public-to-private sector "revolving door" has crossed into the macabre twilight zone.
It is Pedro's "courage to write" what Bernanke conveniently forgot to add in his memoir, that makes this review so much more memorable than the generic sycophantic tripe written by his "access journalism" peers.
It had been a relatively quiet session overnight when as reported previously, the geopolitical situation in the middle east changed dramatically in a moment, when NATO-member country Turkey downed a Russian fighter jet allegedly over Turkish territory even though the plane crashed in Syria, and whose pilots may have been captured by local rebel forces. The news promptly slammed Turkish assets and FX, sending the Lira tumbling, pushing lower European stocks and US equity futures while sending 2 Year German Bunds to record negative yields.