PIMCO

Cable Rallies After EU President Confirms EU-UK Deal Done

Unless Cameron heard what he wanted to hear, as we detailed earlier, he would not have campaigned for the UK to remain in the bloc ahead of an expected referendum on membership in June.... which would likely have rocked the EU once again. Well after 30 minutes of chaos after the bell tonight, EU President Donald Tusk has tweeted that "Deal. Unanimous support for new settlement." GBPUSD is rallying on the news but now comes the fun part where Cameron persuades an increasingly euroskeptic Britain to stay inside Brussels shell...

How The Pros Do It: Tepper Added 75% To Longs After Saying "Now A Good Time To Take Money Off The Table"

Back in September, David Tepper told BBG TV that "it might be a good time to take money off the table." That's what he said. What did he do? According to his latest 13F as the market was surging in the final quarter of 2015, Tepper was busy buying. So busy in fact, that he took his total long notional exposure to $5 billion an increase of 75%, in the process adding 40% to his longs. 

Fed's Kashkari Says "We Won't See Next Crisis Coming", Compares Banks To Risky Nuclear Reactors

"Unfortunately, I am far more skeptical that these tools will be useful to policymakers in the second scenario of a stressed economic environment. Given the massive externalities on Main Street of large bank failures in terms of lost jobs, lost income and lost wealth, no rational policymaker would risk restructuring large firms and forcing losses on creditors and counterparties using the new tools in a risky environment, let alone in a crisis environment like we experienced in 2008. They will be forced to bail out failing institutions—as we were."

Frontrunning: February 10

  • Global Stocks Bounce Back After Market Selloff; Asia Stumbles (WSJ)
  • New Hampshire Bucks the Establishment to Back Trump and Sanders (BBG)
  • Trump shows his U.S. presidential bid is no mere publicity stunt (Reuters)
  • Clinton Is Outdone by a Competitor Once Considered a Fringe Candidate (WSJ)
  • Deutsche Bank Jumps as Lender Said to Consider Bond Buyback (BBG)
  • Bank Executives Leading Surge of Insider Buying Amid Stock Rout (BBG)

Gundlach: Bonds Won't Bottom Until Panic Sends VIX Above 40

More troubling for the bulls who are unable to get the much needed close of trading panic flush as a result of daily last hour levitations is Gundlach's call that the VIX needs to surge above 40 before a bottom can be made in the high-yield junk bond market. Today the VIX closed up 11% to 26.00, a long way off from the panic and revulsion that would send it north of 40. Indeed, the last time the VIX rose above that level was on August 24, when the VIX calculation actually was broken for a brief period of time to avoid crushing countless VIX-linked investors.

Futures, Global Stocks Tumble As Europe Bank, Periphery Carnage Unfolds

Everything went from bad to worse once Europe opened, and things started going "bump in the morning" across the European banking sector, where not only has it been more of the same with CDS spreads for major banks - most notably Deutsche Bank - continuing their surge wider, but also EM spreads to Bunds all following, with the Portugal-Germany Yield spread blowing out above 300 bps for the first time since 2014, and other peripheral nations following.

Frontrunning: February 5

  • January Jobs Report Closely Watched for Momentum, Wages (WSJ)
  • Oil prices steady, weak fundamentals weigh after volatile week (Reuters)
  • How Much Global Oil Output Halted Due to Low Prices? Just 0.1% (BBG)
  • Congress Tweet 'Unfortunate,' Lawyer Says as Shkreli Goes Online (BBG)
  • Syrians Flee Aleppo to Escape Damascus Offensive Against Rebels (WSJ)
  • Dollar Set for Biggest Weekly Loss Since 2009 Before Jobs Data (BBG)

Futures Unchanged, Global Stock Algos Anemic Ahead Of U.S. Payrolls Report

US futures were largely unchanged overnight, with a modest bounce after the European close driven by a feeble attempt to push oil higher, faded quickly and as of this moment the E-mini was hugging the flatline ahead of today's main event - the January payrolls, expected to print at 190K and 5.0% unemployment, however the whisper number - that required to push stocks higher - is well lower, at 150K (according to DB), as only a bad (in fact very bad) jobs number today will cement the Fed's relent and assure no more rate hikes in 2016 as the market now largely expects.

Frontrunning: February 4

  • EU Slashes 2016 Inflation Forecast to 0.5% as Growth Seen Slower (BBG)
  • Bank of England cuts UK growth forecasts (FT)
  • Investors Cast Wary Eye on Fed Rate Increases (WSJ)
  • U.N. halts Syria talks as government closes in on Aleppo (Reuters)
  • Credit Suisse Drops as Investment Bank Slump Deepens Losses (BBG)
  • Six OPEC states ready for emergency meeting with non-OPEC members — Venezuela's minister (TASS)

Futures Flat As Dollar Weakness Persists, Crude Rally Fizzles

After yesterday's torrid, chaotic moves in the market, where an initial drop in stocks was quickly pared and led to a surge into the close after a weaker dollar on the heels of even more disappointing US data and Bill Dudley's "serious consequences" speech sent oil soaring and put the "Fed Relent" scenario squarely back on the table, overnight we have seen more global equity strength on the back of a weaker dollar, even if said weakness hurt Kuroda's post-NIRP world and the Nikkei erased virtually all losses since last Friday's surprising negative rate announcement. Oil and metals also rose piggybacking on the continued dollar weakness as the word's most crowded trade was suddenly shaken out.

Bill Gross Trolls "Addled, Impotent" Central Bankers, Asks "How's It Workin' For Ya?"

"Why after several decades of 0% rates has the Japanese economy failed to respond? Why has the U.S. only averaged 2% real growth since the end of the Great Recession? “How’s it workin’ for ya?” – would be a curt, logical summary of the impotency of low interest rates to generate acceptable economic growth worldwide. "

Frontrunning: January 26

  • China shares end at 14-month lows after late selling frenzy (Reuters)
  • China Dec gold imports through Hong Kong highest since 2013 (Reuters)
  • China Contagion Fades as European Stocks Pare Drop, Oil Rises (BBG)
  • Apple set for slowest ever iPhone sales growth (Reuters)
  • Saudis, Russia Seen by Iraq as More Flexible on Oil-Output Cuts (BBG)
  • China Probes NEV sector for subsidy fraud (China Daily)