With more than $65 billion pulled from PIMCO's funds since May 2013, Bill Gross' firm had been struggling amid spotty performance and it seems, according to The Wall Street Journal, PIMCO (not Allianz) was set to fire the 70-year old bond king this weekend. It seems clear that Mr. Gross move was pre-emptive as sources cite his "increasingly erratic behavior" and ultimatums as factors in the move. Assumptions about Mohamed El-Erian returning to run the company have been denied. Some have estimated PIMCO could see a further 10-30% in fund outflows on the back of Mr. Gross' departure.
Black Swan? Having seen liquidations of a relatively small fund yesterday send the NASDAQ down 2% and credit reeling, world bond and stock markets are reacting aggressively to Bill Gross' move from PIMCO. German stocks (PIMCO's parent Allianz is the 7th largest stock in DAX) are tumbling, European peripheral bond spreads are pushing wider (major holdings of PIMCO) and US credit markets are getting smashed (PIMCO is a major player in CDS markets and obviously a huge holder of US corporate debt) and concerns spread of redemptions triggering the kind of liquidity suck out we described yesterday.
It has been a relatively subdued session, with not much action in either stocks or bonds - European stocks rise for the second day on US market momentum from yesterday; Asian stocks are mixed advance while metals decline with Brent, WTI crude, U.S. equity index futures. The biggest highlight in overnight action, however, was once again the Dollar whick climbed to a fresh 4-year high, on pace to strengthen for 2 straight months for first time since March. The reason: ongoing sentiment that there will be a major dispersion between central banks, with the USD tightening just as other central banks join the liquidity fray. To wit, ECB data showed that lending decline in Europe slowed to -1.5% y/y in Aug. vs -1.6% in July and the latest statement from Draghi who said in Lithuania that economic reform possible without devaluing currency.
- A Month of Bombs Dropped in One Night of Strikes on Syria (BBG)
- Air strikes in Syria hit Islamic State-held areas near Turkey (Reuters)
- Pimco ETF Draws Probe by SEC (WSJ)
- Shadowy al Qaeda cell, hit by U.S. in Syria, seen as 'imminent' threat (Reuters)
- Yellen Warns on Market Calm Before ‘Considerable Time’ Up (BBG)
- Dudley Says Fed Needs U.S. Economy to Run ‘A Little Hot' (BBG)
- Websites Are Wary of Facebook Tracking Software (WSJ)
- Just a joke now: Barclays Fined Twice in One Day for Compliance Failures (BBG)
- Fired UPS worker kills two supervisors, self, in Alabama shooting (Reuters)
The depression that followed the stock-market crash of 1929 took a turn for the worse eight years later, and recovery came only with the enormous economic stimulus provided by the second world war, a conflict that cost more than 60 million lives. By the time recovery finally arrived, much of Europe and Asia lay in ruins. The current world situation is not nearly so dire, but there are parallels, particularly to 1937. Now, as then, people have been disappointed for a long time, and many are despairing. They are becoming more fearful for their long-term economic future. And such fears can have severe consequences.
Getting out of a Liquidity Trap with monetary policy playing the lead role necessarily involves a Dornbuschian sequence of rational overshooting: The Fed must drive up Wall Street prices, which move quickly, so as to get to Main Street prices that move up slowly, most importantly, wages. This sequencing implies that Wall Street prices must become very rich relative to Main Street prices in order to achieve so-called escape velocity from the Liquidity Trap. At the transition point, Wall Street prices will be rationally “overvalued” relative to their long-term “fair value.” The dominant risk for Wall Street is not bursting bubbles, but rather a long slow grind down in profit’s share of GDP/national income. And you can stick that into a Gordon Model, too! Bonds and stocks may at present be rationally valued, but borrowing from the lyrics of Procol Harum’s Keith Reid: Expected long-term returns are turning a more ghostly whiter shade of pale.
- Ferguson at Turning Point After Night of Relative Calm (BBG)
- Gaza war rages on, Hamas says Israel tried to kill its military chief (Reuters)
- Surge in Putin Patriotism Masks Pain of Sanctions (BBG)
- Bank of England splits over rate hike for first time in 3 years (Reuters)
- Putin Meeting Leaves Kiev With Tough Choices (WSJ)
- European Gas Reverses Biggest Drop Since 2009 on Ukraine (BBG)
- "Isolation" Mongolia Seeks Economic Lifeline With Pivot to China, Russia (BBG)
- Uber Picks David Plouffe to Wage Regulatory Fight (NYT)
- China Levies Record Antitrust Fine on Japanese Firms (BBG)
- Just how many rats are there? Steven Cohen's Firm Loses Another Top Executive (WSJ)
- Iceland Sees a Potential Volcanic Eruption, and Airlines Cower (Bloomberg)
- Iraqi forces battle to drive jihadists from Saddam's home town (Reuters)
- Israel, Palestinians Agree to Extend Gaza Truce for 24 Hours (BBG)
- Pimco now buying junk (BusinessWeek)
- Pakistan arrests 147 in Punjab towns as protests in capital continue (Reuters)
- Ex-Rabobank Employee Pleads Guilty in Libor-Rigging Probe (BBG)
- Ebola Orphans Targeted by Aid Groups as Newest Victims (BBG)
- Two California youths accused of plotting high school shooting spree (Reuters)
- Only Rich Know Wage Gains With No Raises for U.S Workers (BBG)
The fundamental mistake is to think in terms of a low yield telling you anything about the economy, as it is price that you should be focusing on.
- Gunshots, tear gas in riots over shooting of black Missouri teen (Reuters)
- Russia sends big aid convoy to Ukraine, West sounds warnings (Reuters)
- Maliki Bid to Block Successor Escalates Crisis in Iraq (BBG)
- Poor German data pushes euro toward 9-month lows against dollar (Reuters)
- Derivatives Reincarnate Boosting Debt Wagers in New Era (BBG)
- Israel Says No Gaza Talks Progress as Hamas Warns on Truce (BBG)
- Traders brace for research crackdown as easy money dries up (Reuters)
- U.S. Bank Profits Near Record Levels (WSJ)
- Unproven Ebola Drugs Are Ethical to Use in Outbreak: WHO (BBG)
- Caesars’ CEO Loveman Says No Qualified Bidders for Revel (BBG)
- Argentine holdout NML says government "choosing" to default (Reuters)
- Crunch time for Gaza truce talks as death toll passes 800 (Reuters)
- Don’t Tell Anybody About This Story on HFT Power Jump Trading (BBG)
- U.S. Accuses Russia of Shelling Eastern Ukraine (BBG)
- France’s Wheat Exports in Question as Rain Spoils Quality (BBG)
- Tapering in action: Lower printer sales hurt Xerox's revenue (Reuters)
- No liquidity? No Problem, there's an ETF for that: Bond ETFs Swelling in Europe as Trading Debt Gets Tougher (BBG)
- Herbalife hires ex-Biden chief to fend off regulators (NYPost)
- GM recalls far from calamity for some dealers who find new customers, business (Reuters)
- Bad weather likely cause of fatal Air Algerie crash: French officials (Reuters)
In the Golden Age of the Central Banker it is impossible to distinguish fundamental economic reasons for asset class price movements from politically-driven strategic reasons. When words are used for strategic effect rather than a genuine transmission of information you create a virtual stalking horse. It’s a focus on how something is said as opposed to what is described. It’s a focus on form rather than content, on truthiness rather than truth. It’s why authenticity is as rare as a unicorn in the public world today.
This is not "different times", the system's low volatility will be replaced by higher volatility, the zero bound leads to bubbles by definition unless you of course believe in eternity and most importantly, mean-reversion and compounding remains the two most powerful tools in finance. It feels like an eternity since the market last traded like a real market, but make no mistake, exactly when you think more of the same is destined to be your strategy, things do change despite the feeling of infinity.
If there was any doubt which way the market was leaning if not in stocks, then definitely in bonds, it was promptly crushed moments ago when the US sold $27 billion in 3 Year paper. The When Issued, which was trading at just shy of 1%, or 0.998% to be precise, suggested we could have our first 1% bond auction pricing since May of 2011. That however was not meant to be the case today when as a result of surprising demand for the short end, the Treasury sold TSYs at a high yield of 0.992%, stopping through the when issued by 6 bps, even if the final yield was still the highest in over three years.