A week ago, we first reported that Bridgewater's Ray Dalio had finally thrown in the towel on his latest iteration of hope in the "Beautiful deleveraging", and realizing that a 3% yield is enough to grind the US economy to a halt, moved from the pro-inflation camp (someone tell David Rosenberg) back to buying bonds (i.e., deflation). This was music to Bill Gross' ears who in his latest letter, in which he notes in addition to everything else that while the Fed has to taper eventually, it doesn't actually ever have to raise rates, and writes: "The objective, Dalio writes, is to achieve a “beautiful deleveraging,” which assumes minimal defaults and an eventual return of investors’ willingness to take risk again. The beautiful deleveraging of course takes place at the expense of private market savers via financially repressed interest rates, but what the heck. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder and if the Fed’s (and Dalio’s) objective is to grow normally again, then there is likely no more beautiful or deleveraging solution than one that is accomplished via abnormally low interest rates for a long, long time." How long one may ask? "the last time the U.S. economy was this highly levered (early 1940s) it took over 25 years of 10-year Treasury rates averaging 3% less than nominal GDP to accomplish a “beautiful deleveraging.” That would place the 10-year Treasury at close to 1% and the policy rate at 25 basis points until sometime around 2035!" In the early 1940s there was also a world war, but the bottom line is clear: lots and lots of central planning for a long time.
- House GOP banking on Plan C (Politico)
- Pimco shook hands with the Fed - and made a killing (Reuters)
- BlackBerry's Torsten Heins has a $55 Million golden parachute (Reuters)
- JPMorgan Urged to Pay More in Mortgage Deal (NYT)
- Soros Adviser Turned Lawmaker Sees Crisis by 2020 (BBG)
- U.N. Members Agree on Syria Disarmament (WSJ)
- U.N. Says Humans Are 'Extremely Likely' Behind Global Warming (WSJ)
- The non-falsifiable threats emerge: Shutdown Would Shave Fourth-Quarter U.S. Growth as Much as 1.4% (BBG)
- Swaps Rules Worry Industry: Coming Regulations Have Market Players Concerned About Possible Disruption (WSJ)
Yesterday, when in the aftermath of the Fed's "shocking" announcement bond yields plunged, the bond kings, both old and new couldn't get to a media outlet fast enough to express their euphoria over the end of the selloff. Gross tweeted immediately that he was "not bragging but what did we tell you" while Gundlach added that he "sees a change in Psychology with the 10 Year below 2.7%." It is unclear just what psychological change he was referring to, because looking at the market it was one of resumed selling: as of moments ago, the 10 Year has retraced over a third of its plunge and is back to 2.75% and rising once again; and the 30Y has retraced over 50% of its gains at 3.80%. We are going to need another un-Taper soon.
Gross: Summers's exit makes Monday a huge day for curve/risk on trades. Treasury 5/30 curve may steepen by 10. Stocks should do very well.
— PIMCO (@PIMCO) September 15, 2013
To say that bonds are under pressure would be an understatement. Over the last few months, sentiment about fixed income has flipped dramatically: from a favored investment destination that is deemed to benefit from exceptional support from central banks, to an asset class experiencing large outflows, negative returns and reduced standing as an anchor of a well-diversified asset allocation. Similar to prior periods, history will regard the ongoing phase of dislocations in the bond market as a transitional period of adjustment triggered by changing expectations about policy, the economy and asset preferences – all of which have been significantly turbocharged by a set of temporary and ultimately reversible technical factors. By contrast, history is unlikely to record a change in the important role that fixed income plays over time in prudent asset allocations and diversified investment portfolios – in generating returns, reducing volatility and lowering the risk of severe capital loss. Understanding well what created this change is critical to how investors may think about the future.
- U.S., Russia to push for new Syria peace talks (Reuters)
- Elite Syrian Unit Scatters Chemical Arms Stockpile (WSJ)
- Obama to nominate Summers as Fed chief: Nikkei (Reuters)
- Boehner Wants Joint Talks on Debt, Budget (WSJ)
- House Republicans go for broke in fiscal battles (Reuters)
- Pimco, BlackRock Together Received More Than a Quarter of Verizon's $49 Billion Bond Deal (WSJ)
- Insane financial system lives post-Lehman (Gillian Tett)
- JPM to add $2.5 billion to its litigation reserves in the second half of the year (WSJ)
- Goldman’s Zurich offices visited over working-hours complaint (FT)
Despite PIMCO, DoubleLine, and pretty much every other major mortgage bondholder in the world litigating the actions, Richmond, California's leaders approved this morning a plan for the city to become the first in the nation to acquire mortgages with negative equity in a bid to keep local residents in their homes. Richmond's city council voted 4 to 3 to use the power of 'eminent domain' (as we discussed here most recently) to seize underwater mortgages and refinance them. City council members opposed to the plan countered that using eminent domain would put Richmond at risk of expensive lawsuits that could destroy the city's finances; and sure enough, Richmond had no takers last month when the successor to its redevelopment agency put $34 million of bonds up for sale to refinance previous debt. As Reuters reports, investors holding the mortgages targeted by Richmond dispute altruism motivates the plan and are set to meet in court for the first time tomorrow.
Spot the outlier...
There's a growing view that America's energy boom will result in a higher U.S. dollar in coming years. There are some key holes in the argument though.
- Government has too much debt to issue more debt
- Government nationalizes private pension funds making their debt holdings an "asset" and commingles with other public assets
- New confiscated assets net out sovereign debt liability, lowering the debt/GDP ratio
- Debt/GDP drops below threshold, government can issue more sovereign debt
Bonds Bleed: Largest Bubble In History Unwinds, But The “Great Rotation” Into Stocks Is Deceptive Wall Street HypeSubmitted by testosteronepit on 09/05/2013 19:40 -0400
The evaporating “wealth effect”
Those curious if the Indian Rupee cratered once again in overnight trading will be disappointed: following the previously reported intervention by the RBI in which it would provide US dollars only to crude companies, the currency rose strongly at the open only to fade and trade rangebound before closing in the mid 67 range. In other words, much more will be needed by the central bank to stabilize the currency, the markets and the economy. The main overnight story, however, remains the Syrian conflict and market reactions to it. Stocks traded higher in Europe early today, with credit spreads tightening as market participants scaled back expectations of an imminent strike on Syria after US Defense Secretary Hagel said that the US will act on Syria only with international collaboration. Of note, the G-20 is set to take place next week where Syria is widely expected to be the hot topic for discussion among global world leaders. But while futures ramped in early trade following a spike in the USDJPY over 98, they have since retraced most of their upside, and crude is back to nearly unchanged.
It was a quiet overnight session, in which the Nikkei was catching up to USDJPY weakness from the past two days, while China dipped once more despite the NDRC's chief economist stating China may cut RRR or conduct more reverse repos in H2 to maintain stable credit as loan growth slows down (or in other words things go back to normal). In Europe ECB's Nowotny decided to undo some of Draghi's recent work when he said that "good economic news" removes the need for a rate cut which in turn pushed the EURUSD higher (and European exports lower), even as former Cyprus central bank Orphanides said the Euro crisis may flare up after the German elections. In the UK Q2 GDP came in slightly stronger than expected at 0.7% vs 0.6% Exp. letting the GBP outperform since a need for the BOE to ease, at least in the short run, is becoming less pertinent. In amusing news, Moody’s late yesterday put six largest U.S. banks on review as it considers the effect of evolving bank resolution policies under Dodd-Frank and international regulations. As such GS, JPM, MS and WFC may be cut.
THE RESULTS OF THE 5-YEAR NOTE AUCTION COULD RESULT IN THE UNSCHEDULED REOPENING OF THE 7-YEAR NOTES OF SERIES P-2018 (CUSIP NO. 912828RE2)
If the auction of the 5-year Treasury notes to be held Wednesday, August 28, 2013, results in a high yield in a range of 1.500% through and including 1.624%, the 5-year notes will be considered an additional issue of the outstanding 1-1/2% 7-year notes of Series P-2018 (CUSIP No. 912828RE2) originally issued August 31, 2011. The additional issue of notes would have the same CUSIP number as the outstanding notes, which are currently outstanding in the amount of $29,886 million. If the auction results in the issuance of an additional amount of the outstanding 7-year notes rather than a new 5-year note, it will be indicated in the Treasury's auction results press release and by a special announcement. Any net long position reporting in this auction should be in regard to the 5-year notes.
Gross: 3 to 4 percent credit growth can’t produce much more than 3-4 percent increases in asset prices. No more QE's? No more bull markets.
— PIMCO (@PIMCO) August 21, 2013