Goldman Sachs

Clinton's Pay-to-Play Is The Natural Consequence Of Big Government

Government interference impedes the entrepreneur’s use of economic calculation and the attempt to use prices to impose managerial discipline. Taxes and price regulations that interfere with corporate pro?ts (distorting an important signal of employee performance); laws that interfere with hiring and promotion (including the need to hire people to deal with government); and the omnipresent threat of arbitrary antitrust or regulatory activity, in response to which entrepreneurs must become adept at "diplomacy and bribery."

Goldman: "Yellen Remarks Point To Higher Odds Of September Hike", Market Disagrees

With pundits unable to decide if Yellen's speech was hawkish or dovish, we need a tiebreaker, and as always the best one is the bank that has spawned more central bankers than any other institution, Goldman Sachs. As such, according to the just released analysis of Goldman's Jan Hatzius, the Fed speech "raised the odds of a rate increase at the September FOMC meeting," but he adds that "any action will depend on the result of next week's jobs report. "

Frontrunning: August 24

  • 'Voices under the rubble' after quake hits Italy; at least 38 dead (Reuters)
  • Turkish tanks, special forces launch first major push into Syria to battle IS (Reuters)
  • A Year After Stocks Armageddon, It’s Smooth Sailing for Markets (BBG)
  • Global stocks ease, dollar holds ground as U.S. rate bets abound (Reuters)
  • Merkel Tells Renzi He Can’t Bend Euro Rules to Boost Growth (BBG)

Stocks Creep Higher As Dollar Resumes Falling, Oil Slides For Second Day

While the summer doldrums continue, with little market-moving newsflow overnight and zombified volumes, US futures crept higher and European shares rose after EU PMIs printed modestly better than expected, while a return to dollar weakness pushed emerging markets higher, even if it failed to boost oil which as we noted last night was downgraded by Goldman on various fundamental reasons.

Jackson Hole Looms: The Main Events In The Coming Week

The key economic releases this week are new home sales on Tuesday and durable goods on Thursday. However, the main event in what is one of the slowest summer weeks, will be the Jackson Hole symposium starting this Friday, where focus will be on Yellen's speech who will be scrutinized to see if she can bring the Fed's message back on track after several conflicting statements by Fed speakers in recent weeks.

Summary Of Recent Fed Statements: Spot The Common Theme

Actually, scratch that: the one thing that becomes clear after skimming this selection of select statements by Fed committee members over the past few months, is that there is absolutely no common theme.

Goldman "Explains" Why Yellen Lost Credibility: "In Our View, The Fed Has Been Unlucky"

"The May 18 minutes surprised virtually everyone by guiding strongly toward a rate hike in June or July, and Chair Yellen reinforced this message in her remarks at Harvard University on May 27. But the weak May employment report released on June 3 and increased concern about the UK referendum again triggered a sharp pivot, putting on hold the notion of further hikes. These dramatic shifts have frustrated many market participants. In our view, the Fed has been unlucky."

This Is The Reason For The Sharp Rebound In Q3 Hedge Fund Performance

After months of declining market exposure, the sharp increase in hedge fund leverage in recent weeks has helped drive outperformance. In addition to adding leverage through cash equities, call option volume rose to record levels, hedge fund S&P 500 futures exposures climbed by $15 billion, and the share of S&P 500 market cap held short fell to a 1-year low.

Don't Count Yer Clintons Yet - It Ain't Over Till It's Over

What America has in Hillary Clinton is a potential president with the charisma but not the competence of Angela Merkel, and the ethics of Dilma Rousseff. Yet, still, on the mega-issue, America’s desire for change, and on specific issues, Trump holds something close to a full house. The coming economic news — we had 1 percent growth in the first half of 2016 — could cause a second look at Trumponomics. And whoever is out there strategically dropping Democratic emails may be readying an October surprise for Hillary Clinton, a massive document dump that buries her.

These Are The Top 50 Hedge Fund Long And Short Positions

"Even with the recent rally in the most popular long positions, the average hedge fund has returned just 3% YTD, lagging the S&P 500 for the eighth year in a row. Many active managers continue to struggle in 2016, with the average hedge fund (+3%) and large-cap core mutual fund (+7%) lagging the S&P 500. Among hedge fund styles, although most have posted similar returns, event-driven funds have fared best (+5%) while equity long/short funds trail (+2%)."

Oil Prices Continue To Rise On Hollow Saudi Comments

This is just the latest confirmation that Saudi Arabia has taken center stage when it comes to oil. Nobody cares anymore about fundamentals, everyone listens to what Riyadh says. If Riyadh is bullish on oil, then oil prices rise, despite any production data that might contradict their words. If Riyadh decides for some reason to be bearish, the market follows. The extent of this dependency of traders on every word that comes out of Khalid al-Falih’s mouth (and other Saudi officials) becomes all the more evident in light of the latest production forecasts for Saudi Arabia.