Goldman Sachs

• Downgrades Loom for Banks (WSJ)
• China Loosens Grip on Yuan (WSJ)
• Sarkozy Embraces Growth Role for ECB (WSJ)
• A Top Euro Banker Calls for Boost to IMF (WSJ)
• Wolfgang Münchau - Spain has accepted mission impossible (FT)
• Hong Kong Takeovers Loom Large With Banks Lending Yuan: Real M&A (Bloomberg)
• Banks urge Fed retreat on credit exposure (FT)
• Drought in U.K. Adds to Inflation Fears (WSJ)
• France faces revival of radical left (FT)
• Euro Area Seeks Bigger IMF War Chest as Spanish Concerns Mount (Bloomberg)

Curious what the investing world will focus on next week? Here is a recap courtesy of Goldman Sachs, though for those who want the punchline now, just fast forward to Thursday when get Spain and French bond auctions. In the meantime just ignore all the intraday trading halts of Intesa, UniCredit And Banco Popolare. The rest is just the supporting cast.

George Soros has been a busy man the last few days. Appearing at the INET Conference a number of times and penning detailed articles for the FT (and here at Project Syndicate) describing the terrible situation in which Europe finds itself - and furthermore offering a potential solution. Critically, he opines, the European crisis is complex since it is a vicious circle of competing crises: sovereign debt, balance of payments, banking, competitiveness, and structurally defective non-optimal currency union. The fact is 'we are very far from equilibrium...of the Maastricht criteria' with his very clear insight that the massive gap, or cognitive dissonance, between the 'official authorities' hope and the outside world who see how abnormal the situation is, is troublesome at best. Analogizing the periphery countries as third-world countries that are heavily indebted in a foreign currency (that they cannot print), his initial conclusion ends with the blunt statement that "the euro has really broken down" and the ensuing discussion of just what this means from both an economic and socially devastating perspective: the destruction of the common market and the European Union and how this will end in acrimonious recriminations with worse conflicts between European states than before.

Back in August 2009 we asked a very simple question: "Is Goldman's Selective Trading Disclosure A Legal Way For Preferred Clients To Front Run The Market?" Today, nearly three years later, the SEC answers our question. The answer - a resounding yes.

Yesterday, Greek Prime Minister Papademos visited President Papoulias to announce the dissolution of the current parliament. General elections have been called for the May 6. Elections in Greece are held in a one-round national ballot. In a brief note on the actions and implications of the Greek election, Goldman notes that the Greek political scene is undergoing a significant transformation. The traditional split between center-left (PASOK) and center-right (New Democracy, or ND)) is no longer the key dilemma for Greek voters. According to a number of recent polls, there is a significant margin of undecided voters. In addition, a number of small and new parties are projected to enter the new parliament. This has created market concerns that the Greek elections could lead to an anti-Euro government, which could interrupt the adjustment efforts underway and create risks to local financial stability.

Let’s be clear: financial misdeeds ruin lives. If a Madoff takes your money and uses it to pay off other investors in a ponzi scheme, you won’t be able to get it back. If a Blankfein underling issues you with misleading advice, and then bets against you (creaming himself a nice profit), you won’t be able to get it back. If a Corzine steals your money and uses it to bet on the European sovereign debt market, you might not be able to get it back. You might end up in poverty or worse. You might lose your children’s college money, your retirement money, or capital you needed for your business. You might lose your home. So shouldn’t we take a tough line against financial misdeeds? Shouldn’t tricking and stealing from investors, tricking and stealing from the public, tricking and stealing from clients carry a heavy disincentive, like death? Would a corrupt banker not think twice about their misdeeds if they knew that apprehension would mean a noose around their neck and a kicked bucket? A lot of commentators — like for example, Max Keiser — seem to think so. And in China financial crimes are treated with a gravity far beyond a cushy minimum security cell, and home visits on the weekends. Financial criminals in China are often executed.

Heading into the US open, European stock markets are experiencing a mixed session with particular underperformance noted once again in the peripheral IBEX and FTSE MIB indices. The Portuguese banking sector specifically is taking heavy hits following overnight news from Banco Espirito di Santo that they are to issue a large quantity of new shares, prompting fears that further banks may have to recapitalize. The financials sector is also being weighed upon by a downbeat research note published by a major Japanese bank on the Spanish banking sector. Elsewhere, the Italian BTP auction was released in a fragmented fashion showing softer bid/covers and the highest yield since mid-January in the only on-the-run line sold today. Similarly to yesterday’s auction, the sale was not quite as poor as some as feared. Italy sold to the top of the range and as such, the Italian/German 10-yr yield spread is now tighter by 13BPS, currently at 361BPS. From the UK, the DMO sold 20-year gilts with a lower bid/cover ratio and a large yield tail, prompting gilt futures to fall by around 10 ticks after the release. Later in the session, participants will be looking out for US PPI data and the weekly jobless numbers.

• Fed's No. 2 Strongly Backs Low-Rate Policy (Hilsenrath)
• World Bank Cuts China 2012 Growth Outlook on Exports  (Bloomberg)
• BlackRock's Street Shortcut: Big Banks Would Be Bypassed With Bond Platform; 'Not Going to Cannibalize' (WSJ)
• George Soros - Europe’s Future is Not Up to The Bundesbank (FT)
• Fed May Have Aggravated Income Inequality, El-Erian Says(Bloomberg)
• Shirakawa Pledges Japan Easing Amid Political Pressure (Bloomberg)
• Spain’s Debt Struggle Opens Door to Sarkozy Campaign Message (Bloomberg)
• Iran Woos Oil Buyers With Easy Credit (FT)
• Syria Pledges to Observe Ceasefire (FT)

For the 7th consecutive week retail investors not only refuse to chase the bouncing ball, but to listen to former titans of finance, such as Goldman Sachs who on March 21 told everyone to get out of bonds and into stocks (a trade which has since been unwound for all practical aspects). Since then, as well as before then, we have seen relentless outflows from equities to the tune of $10 billion, while allocating cash precisely to bonds, as taxable bond funds saw $20 billion in inflows over the same time period. What is more notable is that despite the liquidity driven rally, one which everyone now understands is 100% fake and central bank driven, retail never got fooled and refused to be the dumb money for the duration of the "rally" - and now that the rally topped, and stocks are sliding back down, retail investors pulled out the biggest one week amount, or $4.3 billion, in the week ended April 4, from domestic equity funds per ICI. And now with every passing day, Primary Dealers - facing the prospect of no dumb money coming in to buy up the hot grenades in inventory, and with the Fed waiting until later in the year before re-entering the market in an election year, may have no choice but to sell. As usual, the first to sell, wins.

Even Bigger than Ben Bernanke! (short-term, anyway ...)

It's hard being a bear, except this week wasn't so bad.

Deconstructing Corzine's lawyered up rat speak.

This is easily the meatiest, most offensive, most controversial and probably the most hardhitting post of the year. Here's proof that Goldman STUFFED ITS MUPPET clients!!! 20 pgs of research warning non-muppet clients to back off, proof of the Muppet biz model...

Yesterday, out of left field, Goldman hiked its March NFP forecast from +175,000 to match consensus at +200,000. This is rather odd, considering Goldman's recent bearish spin on economic data. As it turns out the justification for this is not only to align with the trendline in ADP and claims data, but because now, suddenly, Goldman thinks that the 100,000 jobs boost due to warm weather, will not be unwound until April. In retrospect this makes sense: Goldman also recently gave up on the Fed announcing the NEW QE in April, as a result the next such opportunity will be June, which in turn means that a rapid deterioration in the economy will have to take place just before the FOMC meeting, rather than a gentle slowing down. Which is why today's NFP has now become a crapshoot, especially since it is still all in the seasonal adjustments. One thing is certain: the quality of jobs, as first demonstrated here, will continue to go down: because in an election year, one dilutes everything, up to and including jobs.

While most of the time, it seems, investing in Emerging (or Growth) market countries is entirely focused on just that - the growth - with little thought given to the lower probability but high impact event of a growth shock. Goldman uses a variety of economic and corporate factors to compile a Growth Vulnerability Score including excess credit growth, high levels of short-term and/or external debt, and current account deficits. Comparing growth expectations to this growth shock score indicates the BRICs are now in very different places from a valuation perspective. Brazil remains 'fair' while India looks notably 'expensive' leaving China and Russia 'cheap'. It seems, in Goldman's opinion that markets are discounting large growth risks too much for China and Russia (and not enough for India). Finally, for all the Europeans, Turkey is richest of all, with a significant growth shock potential that is notably underpriced. Goldman's China-is-cheap perspective disagrees with Nouriel Roubini's well-below-consensus view of an initially soft landing leading to a hard landing for China as 2013 approaches as he notes the pain that commodity exporters feel in 2012 is only a taste of the bleeding yet to come in 2013.