Goldman Sachs

The dishonesty here is that Cruz has pretended to stand against the bankers. But Cruz is bought and paid for and would be in the pocket of the New York Banks no different than Hillary, Bush, or the rest of them who take money from this crowd. You do not forget to report a loan from Goldman Sachs when your wife is a managing director. Come on. How stupid do we have to be to entertain this excuse?

• Crude sinks 4 percent as market braces for more Iranian oil (Reuters)
• Plunge in crude oil prices send stock futures sliding (Reuters)
• Oil Slides, Deepening Gloom in Stocks as Bond Buyers Celebrate (BBG)
• China Stocks Enter Bear Market, Erasing Gains From State Rescue (BBG)
• Friendly no more: Trump, Cruz erupt in bitter fight at Republican debate (Reuters)
• Dollar in Best Run Since July on Haven Bid Even as Fed Odds Fall (BBG)

Yesterday, when looking at the market's "Bullard 2.0" moment, which in many ways was a carbon copy of the market's response to Bullard's "QE4" comments from October 17, 2014 until just a few minutes before the market close when suddenly selling pressure appeared, we said that either the S&P would soar - as it did in 2014 - hitting all time highs just a few months later, or the "Fed is now shooting VWAP blanks." Judging by what has happened since, in what may come as a very unpleasant surprise to the "the market is very oversold" bulls, it appears to have been the latter.

• Islamic State launches militant assault on Indonesia's capital (Reuters)
• Three winners emerge in $1.6 billion Powerball jackpot (Reuters)
• European Stocks Tumble, Credit Markets Weaken on Growth Concern (BBG)
• Stocks and commodity currencies floored by new oil plunge (Reuters)
• China Bear Market Looms as PBOC Fails to Stop Flight to Safety (BBG)
• Anxious phone calls, tense moments before Iran's Supreme Leader okayed U.S. sailors' release (Reuters)

While Chinese New Year seasonals are undoubtedly one factor in last night's "surprisingly good" Chinese trade data, the following chart shows the level of "bullshit factor" was extreme by anyone's measure. Three years ago we first brought China's 'fake' trade data and abundant discrepancies to the public's attention and despite an apparent crackdown by regulators, the gaping difference between imports from Hong Kong and exports to Hong Kong is downright embarrassing for China's SAFE as it is clear that capital outflows are being disguised as exports with "over-invoicing" back in play.

• China trade surprise brings relief (Reuters)
• Obama knocks Trump, voices optimism (Reuters)
• Republican Candidates Criticize Obama’s State of the Union Address (WSJ)
• Republicans and Democrats Agree: We Hate Wall Street (WSJ)
• Oil rises for first time in eight sessions on China, U.S. stocks draw (Reuters)
• U.S. Exports First Freely Traded Oil in 40 Years (WSJ)
• China Imports Record Crude as Price Crash Accelerates Buying (BBG)

Russia has just taken significant steps that will break the present Wall Street oil price monopoly, at least for a huge part of the world oil market. The move is part of a longer-term strategy of decoupling Russia’s economy and especially its very significant export of oil, from the US dollar, today the Achilles Heel of the Russian economy.

• Oil slips toward $30, traders bet on more falls (Reuters)
• Oil Plunge Sparks Bankruptcy Concerns (WSJ)
• RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears (Telegraph)
• World stocks drop but Europe shrugs off oil slide, China money market surge (Reuters)
• Canadian Stocks Fall in Longest Slump Since 2002 as Oil Slides (BBG)
• "Murderous" Yuan Rate Jolts Hong Kong as Top Currency Hub (BBG)

The Real Economy Is Depressed-er

In what may be the latest bad news for Hillary Clinton, whose various "previous life" scandals - from emails, to Clinton foundation donations - refuse to go away, the Hill reports, citing Fox News, that the FBI has expanded its investigation of Hillary Clinton's use of a private email server during her time as secretary of State to determine whether her Clinton Foundation work violated public corruption laws.

It was an ominous beginning to what is poised to be a most tumultuous year. Market participants are quickly coming to appreciate that China does in fact matter. Few understand why. Most – from billionaires to fund managers to retail investors – will “Do Nothing.” This has worked just fine in the past – repeatedly. Not understanding and not doing anything will be detriments going forward.

Free Corzine!!!  Hasn't he already served enough time?

Now that IBM, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, JP Morgan and the NYSE all agree blockchain technology will dramatically transform finance and capital markets, how does the investor capitalize on the paradigm shift? First, by understanding the concept of "Pathogenic Finance", autonomy and Zero Trust.

Surely, The PBOC will step in at some point and save the collapsing currency? Nope - not if options traders (and Kyle Bass) are to be believed. The odds of the yuan breaking beyond 7 to the greenback by the end of March more than doubled to 12% (from 5.8% at the start of December). Ironically, Bloomberg reports only 1 of 39 analyst predicts Yuan to trade beyond 7 by the end of 2016. The market's extremely strong conviction, and apparent PBOC loss of control is "a dangerous situation for policy-makers" according to one Asian economist.

A lot of people were expecting some really great things to happen in 2015, but most of them did not happen.  But what did happen? A global financial crisis began during the second half of 2015 threatens to greatly accelerate as we enter 2016. This is what the early stages of a financial crisis look like, and the worst is yet to come.