Goldman Sachs

My overriding theme and the central drama for the coming year is that unexpected events can take on greater importance as the Federal Reserve ends its near-decade-long Zero Interest Rate Policy. Consensus premises and forecasts will likely fall flat, in a rather spectacular manner. The low-conviction and directionless market that we saw in 2015 could become a no-conviction and very-much-directed market (i.e. one that's directed lower) in 2016. There will be no peace on earth in 2016, and our markets could lose a cushion of protection as valuations contract. (Just as "malinvestment" represented a key theme this year, we expect a compression of price-to-earnings ratios to serve as a big market driver in 2016.) In other words, we don't think 2016 will be fun.

Everyone who is convinced that the current status quo is permanent and unbreakable should consider what happened to the super-wealthy private landholders of the Western Roman Empire. When the empire's power to coerce broke down, the super-wealthy vanished into the dustbin of history. Few believed that possible in 475 AD, but history isn't a matter of belief. Believing it isn't possible doesn't stop history.

I bet OPEC never factored into their analysis the lifting of the US Oil Exporting Ban in 2015 after being a non-starter for so many decades.

Two weeks ago we said that "those who have savings at US banks, please don't hold your breath to see any increase on the meager interest said deposits earn." We were wrong: some should certainly have held their breath, because as the WSJ reports today, "some bank customers won’t have to wait much longer to reap benefits from the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates." Some, such as clients of J.P. Morgan, which will begin raising deposit rates for some of its "biggest clients" in January. "Biggest" clients, of course, is a universal euphemism for "wealthiest."

More and more countries are jumping on the gold bandwagon...

Louisiana’s board of education is going to implement a new policy which requires all students to fill out a Free Application for Federal Student Aid in order to receive a high school diploma. This requirement in Louisiana is exactly the type insane laws which were imposed by the Government as described in the narrative laid out in “Atlas Shrugged.” Acts of mandate which enabled the Government and the corporate friends of the Government to suck wealth from the populace and from productive workers and redistribute the largesse among themselves.

Three years after 2012, Goldman has finally admitted that all the talk about a major exodus of your Americans from parental houses and into the harsh crony capitalist world, was nothing but hot air. As the chart below shows, the share of 18-34-year-olds living with their parents has never been higher.

"Unfortunately, an institution that was created to serve all Americans has been hijacked by the very bankers it regulates.” 2016 Democratic presidential candidate and Senator from Vermont Bernie Sanders said in an op-ed on Wednesday that a full independent audit of the Federal Reserve is necessary “to reign in Wall Street."

Investors have bought increasing volumes of put options that will pay out if the price of WTI drops to $20 to $30 a barrel next year. The largest open interest across options contracts - both bullish and bearish - for December 2016 is for puts at $30 a barrel. The open interest for June 2016 put options at $25 a barrel has nearly doubled over the last week. Investors have even bought put options that will pay if WTI drops below $15 a barrel by December next year. The volume of financial bets at that level is tiny - 640,000 barrels in total.

Needless to say, these names are just the beginning: once the redemptions - and gating - genie is out of the bottle, there is no putting it back.

Despite every effort by The Fed to convince the world that everything is awesome, it's not. From China growth risks to concerns about tightening financial conditions, Goldman warns so-called 'grey swan' fears are rising with Brexit, Trumpe elected, widening terrorist threats, and increased protectionism the most impactful.

It has been a seesaw session with U.S. stock index futures following their dramatic buying burst in the last half hour of market trading yesterday by first rising, then falling, then rising again alongside European equities both driven almost tick for tick with even the smallest move in the carry trade of choice, the USDJPY, even as Asian shares trade near intraday highs after China’s leaders signaled they will take further steps to support growth.

With the unprecedented surge in unicorns and incessant faith in the ever-increasing productivity of a globalization-crushed American worker, it is perhaps a surprise that the "office space" provided to the intellectual capital-providing, wage-stagnating middle-American, has never been smaller...

"The Fed didn't really drain any liquidity yesterday. They moved the IOER up to .50%, moved the RRP rate up to .25%, and the RRP volume came in at $105 billion, only $3 billion more than the day before. Where was the draining? But interest rates moved up anyway to reflect the tightening, without any fundamental change. Basically, the Fed decreed a rate tightening and the market moved rates higher.... I wonder how many economic interest rate models include "by decree" as a factor?"