Goldman Sachs

Are Stocks Cheap?

We have asked (and answered) this question a number of times in recent weeks. Ignoring for a moment the bubble-trajectory, hope-expectations, and investor sentiment, as ex-Morgan Stanley-ite Gerard Minack notes, equity markets in 2013 appeared to completely ignore macro fundamentals. For 2014, as we warned here, the dream of moar multiple expansion may be over. With the Fed desperate to convince the world that strong language is just as effective as 100s of billions of dollars in liquidity provision, we suspect the 'wedge' between hope and reality will compress (significantly)...

The US Is Not Switzerland: Weighs Sanctions Against South Sudan

Despite telling us just yesterday that it would not take sides in the tensions in South Sudan...

*U.S. NOT TAKING SIDES IN S SUDAN: PSAKI

the US government is on the verge of deciding to... take sides. As Reuters reports, the United States is weighing targeted sanctions against South Sudan due to its leaders' failure to take steps to end a crisis that has brought the world's youngest nation to the brink of civil war. Africa, as we have discussed at length, remains the only region on earth with incremental debt capacity (and therefore growth in a Keynesian world) and so it is no surprise the US wants to get involved in yet another conflict.

Payroll Preview: Who Expects What

  • Citigroup 165K
  • Barclays 175K
  • UBS 185K
  • HSBC 191K
  • Goldman Sachs 200K
  • JP Morgan 215K
  • Bank of America 220K
  • Deutsche Bank 250K

Goldman's Payroll Preview: Optimistic But Worried About Weather

Goldman forecasts a gain of 200k non-farm payroll jobs tomorrow (against a 196k consensus +/-25k). Factors arguing for a solid print include the recent trend, an improvement in most employment indicators already released for the month, the compressed holiday hiring period, and a potential "couriers and messengers effect." On the negative side, Goldman warns cold weather is a downside risk. With respect to other aspects of the release, in general they note that the December report has not shown an overwhelming tendency to contain back-revisions in one direction or the other; and forecast an unchanged unemployment rate at 7.0%, and a 0.2% month-on-month gain in average hourly earnings.

 

If You're Waiting For An "Economic Collapse", Just Look At What Is Happening To Europe

If you are anxiously awaiting the arrival of the "economic collapse", just open up your eyes and look at what is happening in Europe.  The entire continent is a giant economic mess right now.  Unemployment and poverty levels are setting record highs, car sales are setting record lows, and there is an ocean of bad loans and red ink everywhere you look.  Over the past several years, most of the attention has been on the economic struggles of Greece, Spain and Portugal and without a doubt things continue to get even worse in those nations.  But in 2014 and 2015, Italy and France will start to take center stage.  France has the 5th largest economy on the planet, and Italy has the 9th largest economy on the planet, and at this point both of those economies are rapidly falling to pieces.  Expect both France and Italy to make major headlines throughout the rest of 2014. The following are just a few of the statistics that show that an "economic collapse" is happening in Europe right now...

Bitcoins And Unicorns: The Digital Currency Lands On The Cover Of BusinessWeek

First Janet Yellen makes the cover of Time, and concurrently so as not to be left behind, Businesweek, well-known for its suggestive covers (housing, hedge fund managers, the Tea Party), has posted an even more provocative creature on its own cover: a Unicorn - one which is supposed to symbolize, you guessed it, Bitcoins - and serves as the anchor for the Bloomberg-owned magazine's extensive profile of the digital currency, with the following teaser: "Why are investors so crazy for an alterantive currency invented by a phantom?"

Equity Futures Stong On ECB Day Ahead Of Earnings Season Start: Market Recap

The overnight session began on a dour mood, with both the Shanghai Composite and Nikkei sliding (the former once again just barely above 2,000,  latter once again dropping below 16,000), even though Chinese CPI came below expectations suggesting the PBOC has some more room to ease and not rush into liquidity extraction (which just happens to blow out repo rates like clockwork), while in Japan BOJ board member Shirai implied the Japanese QE can be extended and expanded as needed. Europe had a weak start although shortly after 3 am Eastern staged a dramatic turnaround supported by a bounce in the EUR (and ES driving EURJPY) leading to broadly higher stocks, supported by solid demand for Portuguese 5y bond syndication, as well as oversubscribed debt auctions by the Spanish Treasury which sold above the targeted amount and consequently saw SP/GE 10y spread fall to its tightest level since April 2011. At the same time, having been propped up by touted redemption flows ahead of Spanish and French bond auctions, absorption of supply shortly after 1000GMT resulted in an immediate selling pressure on Bunds. Helping lift spirits was a rumored $1 billion trade order in September S&P futures, as well as chatter by the Greek PM that the country was like Portugal and Ireland, prepared to get back into the bond markets.

23 Reasons To Be Bullish On Gold

It's been one of the worst years for gold in a generation. A flood of outflows from gold ETFs, endless tax increases on gold imports in India, and the mirage (albeit a convincing one in the eyes of many) of a supposedly improving economy in the US have all contributed to the constant hammering gold took in 2013. Perhaps worse has been the onslaught of negative press our favorite metal has suffered. It's felt overwhelming at times and has pushed even some die-hard goldbugs to question their beliefs... not a bad thing, by the way. To us, a lot of it felt like piling on, especially as the negative rhetoric ratcheted up. This is why it's important to balance the one-sided message typically heard in the mainstream media with other views. Here are some of those contrarian voices, all of which have put their money where their mouth is...

Frontrunning: January 8

  • Here comes JPM's next multibillion legal reserve: Federal Probe Targets Banks Over Bonds (WSJ)
  • Mulally Bows Out of Microsoft CEO Race, Staying at Ford (BBG)
  • United States sending more troops and tanks to South Korea (Reuters)
  • Eurozone unemployment sticks at record high (FT)
  • China-Japan 'Voldemort' attacks up ante in propaganda war (Reuters)
  • Alternative Lenders Peddle Pricey Commercial Loans (WSJ)
  • John McAfee: glad Intel dropping name from security software (Reuters)
  • Jobless Benefits Bill Stays Alive Amid Talks on Offsets (BBG)
  • Chicago Colder Than South Pole as Frigid Air Clamps Down (BBG)
  • Former Miss Venezuela shot dead in attempted robbery (Reuters)

FOMC Minutes Day Market Summary

Some better than expected economic news out of Europe, Greek 10 Year yields dropping to 7.65% or the lowest since May 2010, and futures are... red? Alas, such is life in a world in which the S&P500, aka the E-mini, is simply a derivative of the Yen funding currency pairs, where the USDJPY touched on 105 after a straight line diagonal move only to sell off in recent trading. Heading into the North American open, stocks in Europe are seen mixed, with peripheral stock indices outperforming, buoyed by the prospect of Portugal echoing yesterday’s Irish NTMA return to capital markets with its 10y bond syndication. As such, despite the cautious sentiment, financials led the move higher, with Italian banks gaining for 4th session as IT/GE 10y spread narrowed to its tightest level since early July 2011. Of note, FTSE-100 index underperformed its peers since the get-go, with retailers and tobacco names under pressure. In spite of opening higher by over 3%, Sainsbury's shares have since reversed and are seen lower by almost 2% after co. CFO said that he expects FY LFL sales to be just below 1% and expects Q4 to be similar to Q3. Elsewhere, tobacco names came under selling pressure following reports that China is planning a ban on smoking in public by year's end.

SocGen Initiaties Coverage On Goldman With "Sell" Rating, $138 Price Target

Moments ago shots were fired when a (French) bank broke the unspoken Omerta code among sellside bankers: it downgraded another bank in a time when the S&P is just shy its all time highs (downgrading banks when the market is tumbling is usually a-ok). The note came from SocGen's Andrew Lim, whse thesis is rather simple: "Valuation too expensive in light of regulatory and revenue challenges."

Frontrunning: January 7

  • Yellen’s Record-Low Senate Support Reflects Fed’s Politicization (BBG)
  • Euro-Zone Inflation Rate Falls in December, even further below ECB's target (WSJ)
  • Zambia politician charged for calling president a potato (AFP)
  • Blame gold: India Savings Deposit Scam Collapse Leaves Thousands Penniless (BBG)
  • Hedge Funds Raise Gold Wagers as Yamada Sees $1,000 (BBG)
  • George Osborne limits cuts options with pensions promise (FT)
  • Vietnam Raises Foreign Bank Ownership Caps to Aid System (BBG)
  • But they said buy a year ago... Goldman to JPMorgan Say Sell Emerging Markets After Slide (BBG)
  • SAC Trial Seen by Probe Convict as Latest Abusive Tactic (BBG)

Deep Freeze Day Market Summary

Heading into the North American open, stocks in Europe are seen broadly higher, with peripheral EU stock indices outperforming after Ireland successfully returned to capital markets with its 10y syndication that attracted over EUR 10bln. Financials benefited the most from the consequent credit and bond yield spreads tightening, with smaller Italian and Spanish banks gaining around 4%. Following the successful placement, IR/GE 10y bond yield spread was seen at its tightest level since April 2010, while PO/GE 10y spread also tightened in reaction to premarket reports by Diario Economico citing sources that Portuguese govt and debt agency IGCP consider that the current level of yields already allows Portugal to go ahead with a bond sale. Looking elsewhere, the release of better than expected macroeconomic data from Germany, together with an in line Eurozone CPI, supported EUR which gradually moved into positive territory. In addition to that, smaller MRO allotment by the ECB resulted in bear steepening of the Euribor curve and also buoyed EONIA 1y1y rates. The Spanish and Italian markets are the best-performing larger bourses, Swedish the worst. The euro is stronger against the dollar. Japanese 10yr bond yields fall; Spanish yields decline. Commodities gain, with wheat, silver underperforming and Brent crude outperforming. U.S. trade balance data released later.