Goldman Sachs

We know it will be next to impossible to wait until October when this book of toner repair and printer cartridge replacement wisdom comes out, here is a sampling of timeless soundbites by the former Fed Chairman and current blogger, that should be enough to hold readers over.

• Greece pleads cash running out, told to hasten reforms (Reuters)
• ECB Cash Said Likely to Fall Short of Greek Request This Week (BBG)
• Chinese Stock Buying Frenzy Sweeps Into Hong  (WSJ)
• Shell’s $70 Billion BG Deal Meets Shareholder Skepticism (BBG)
• Yemen's Houthis seize provincial capital despite Saudi-led raids (Reuters)
• Iran Nuclear Deal Gives Syria’s Bashar al-Assad Reason to Worry (WSJ)
• Slow apps, low battery life limit appeal of Apple Watch (Reuters)
• Gilead’s $1,000 Pill Is Hard for States to Swallow (WSJ)
• The Oil Industry's $26 Billion Life Raft (BBG)

As auto-loan volumes explode (and terms are extended), many of the post-cash-for-clunkers herd are rapidly coming to the realization that the loan they are carrying (and increasingly not paying) is on a wasting asset. As Goldman Sachs notes, The Manheim Index measured 124.5 in March, essentially used-car prices flat yoy after four consecutive months of solid increases. On a sequential basis, the index posted a 0.5% decline in March, following a 0.2% decline in February, confirming Goldman's expectations for a correction in residual values going forward, driven by rising inventory in the off-lease channel... and this pricing pressure is likely to spill over into new car prices.

In retrospect, we almost feel bad for Gregg: after all in the new paranormal, in which the market is manipulated, fragmented and broken from the top (central banks) all the way to the very bottom (HFTs) with the sole purpose of pushing it ever higher in a futile attempt to restore confidence and retail investor participation in what is so clearly a rigged casino it is not easy pretending everything is fine when everything is on the verge of total collapse at any given (nano)second, and where the only recourse to coordinated selling is for the markets to break. Literally.

Curious how the third largest energy deal, and 14th largest corporate take over in history, happened? The answer, courtesy of Reuters, is simple: all it took was a phone call.

A funny thing happened in Britain... as calorie intake has fallen by 8% in the last decade and 4.4% since 2010, driven both by eating out less and eating healthier at home, so obesity levels are stabilising versus recent years with the number of patients diagnosed as obese also declined by 15% yoy in 2013/14, following a 7% decline in 2012/13. In the US, however, the latest data shows that obesity is still rising...

• Israel, U.S. Lawmakers Press Case Against Iran Nuclear Deal  (WSJ)
• Rand Paul tries to broaden libertarian appeal (Reuters)
• Fewer Oil Trains Ply America’s Rails (WSJ)
• Chicago voters go to polls in first ever mayoral runoff (Reuters)
• FedEx to buy TNT to expand Europe deliveries (Reuters)
• Mohamed El-Erian Has Most of His Money in Cash (BBG)
• In Surprise Move, Australia Holds Rates (WSJ)
• Oil falls as Iran, China discuss more supply (Reuters)

Yesterday it was only the US that got the full benefit of the market-wide stop hunt that sent the US market soaring on its biggest opening ramp in 2015 following the worst payroll data since 2013, because Europe was closed for Easter Monday. Which means today it was Europe's turn to celebrate atrocious US data (yes, yes, snow - because somehow tremendous January and February jobs data was not impacted by snow), and in the first European trading session of the week, equities have started off on the front-foot.

The question on everyone's lips: which asset class was responsible for Virtu's trading perfection for yet another year.  It wasn't stocks because adding across the firm's America, EMEA and APAX equity product lines, Virtu revenues actually declined, from $201 million in 2013 to $195 million in 2014. It also wasn't commodities, where revenue dropped by almost $2 million in 2014 to $93.1 million.The answer is...

Surprisingly, the flow of crude oil is still accelerating, much like the money going into crude oil funds. Three of the largest crude oil funds include USO, OIL, and UCO. UCO is unique due to the fact that it’s an exchange-traded fund that uses leverage, mostly in the form of derivatives, to correspond to twice (200%) the daily performance of its underlying benchmark, the Bloomberg WTI Crude Oil Sub-index. Many large financial institutions have large stakes in UCO and thus are still betting that crude oil can make a comeback beginning in 2015.

"It is hard to be “reasonably confident” in the inflation outlook given current economic conditions, unless several inflation drivers rise at the same time. We therefore do not have much confidence in the inflation outlook and believe that the right policy would be to put hikes on hold for now."

- Goldman Sachs

Today, every possible function of a bank, from savings to loans to money transfers, can now be done faster, cheaper, and more efficiently by new technology, courtesy of the Digital Revolution.  In 10 years’ time, the technology and adoption will have progressed to the point that today’s banks will be entirely obsolete. Thomas Jefferson once wrote that “. . . power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.” It took two centuries. But now it’s actually starting to happen.

While global equity markets hover near record-er highs, global GDP growth expectations have erased their February dead cat bounce hopes and tumbled back towards cycle lows. This is all confirmed by the latest data from Goldman Sachs whose Global Leading Indicator remains mired in "contraction" for the 4th month in a row...

When gaming the old score wasn't sufficient to expand the pool of elligible borrowers, creativity was necessary. The result: an entirely new score is born...