Goldman Sachs

Remember: any time Goldman tells you to do something, do what it does, not what it tells you (thank you Tom Stolper for teaching us that lesson) and as the case may be, Goldman's prop, pardon, flow (because those are illegal under Volcker wink wink) traders have some AAPL shares to sell to you, to wit: "We increase our 12-month target price to $145 from $130 previously which is based on a 16X (up from 15X reflecting our increased confidence in Apple’s outlook) multiple applied to our CY2015 EPS estimate of $9.03 ($8.64 previously)."

With reports of near mutiny in Syriza's ranks amid the back-bending they have done to try to meet Germany's demands - only to be abjectly denied by a non-ultimatum-setting Schaeuble - it is perhaps time to prepare (ahead of tomorrow's apparent "G" day) for the possibility that Greece creates a systemic event. As Goldman recently warned, there are aspects that leave us more worried than we have been since the start of the Euro area crisis with a tight schedule to avert a disorderly outcome. Risk markets so far have traded in a resilient (well managed) manner but risks of an accident remain and here is how Goldman suggests you hedge that exposure.

When you owe someone $340, it is YOUR problem.
When you owe someone $340 BILLION, it is THEIR problem.

Here's a plan where the drachma will be more desirable than the euro after Greece defaults on anything euro denominated and backs its redeemable drachma with fractional gold. Upon default euros drop, drachma pops!

After spending the past year deteriorating with each passing month, as global acceleration dipped decidedly in the negative camp, the only thing that kept the Goldman Global Leading Indicator "swirlogram" somewhat buoyant was that "Growth" measured in absolute terms had remained slightly positive. Not any more: according to Goldman's latest global economic read, the world is now officially in contraction, following a sharp plunge in both acceleration and growth in February.

But guess what? It's really, really, really different this time! In this one short post, there's more than enough indisputable evidence of a bubble than anyone can justifiably ignore.

What happens when the "impartial and independent" media puts its relationship with advertisers (especially when said advertisers are admitted criminal consortiums among whose chief sources of revenue in recent decades has been facilitating tax evasion and "laundering the world's drug money") above the interests of its readers and the presentation of "imperatial and independent" facts? This: "The coverage of HSBC in Britain's Daily Telegraph is a fraud on its readers. If major newspapers allow corporations to influence their content for fear of losing advertising revenue, democracy itself is in peril."

Get back to work David Kostin... your 2,100 S&P 500 2015 year-end target just got taken out...

When it comes to trading the possibility of a Grexit, Bloomberg strategist Vassilis Karamanis writes,that there are three possible outcomes.

Scenario 1: Greece exits the euro
Scenario 2: Capital controls are imposed on Greek banks
Scenario 3: Agreement is reached within the next days

This is just the beginning of the oil crisis.

While so much has been made of the considerable decline in US rig counts as the driver behind the recent price bounce in oil, Goldman Sachs' Damien Courvalin pours cold water all over that narrative as he explains that the rig count decline is still not sufficient, in our view, to achieve the slowdown in US production growth required to balance the oil market. Worse yet, he concludes, with the producer hedging that has occurred over the past weeks and the recent wave of equity issuance, the risk that the US production slowdown will be delayed is high, meaning oil prices will need to remain lower in the coming quarters in order for the announced capex guidance and rig reduction to materialize into sufficiently lower production growth.

MMT: Monetizing Muppet Trades. This one made good money!

By reviewing the earnings transcripts from the companies of the S&P 500, Goldman Sachs notes 4 key themes emerge from the maelstrom of double-speak, bravado, and actual data (GAAP or non-GAAP). Without question the US Dollar strength is a drag on multinationals and CEOs are resolute in that (despite mainstream media prognostications that 'king dollar' is "unequivocally good") but what CEOs and CFOs seems just as resolutely positive about is that while macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties still exist in Asia and Europe, they expect solid US economic growth in 2015. It appears - given the data - they will be disappointed.

For the past few years (here from 2012 to most recently here) we have vociferously argued that the state of the US labor force is anything but healthy (and anything but cyclical) as the structural aging of America (where work is punished, college is free, and retirement long forgotten) drags at The American Dream. Even Goldman Sachs' Jan Hatzius - now desperate for a less positive spin to employment, in hopes of keeping The Fed dovish-er longer-er, has admitted that because of discouragement, disability, and schooling, coupled with a slowdown in the rise of the retired population will slow the pace of decline of the unemployment rate.

the latest news out of the West Coast is not good for anyone hoping for a quick resolution to the congestion problem. According to Reuters, after the clogged ports briefly reopened on Friday after a daylong closure, "shippers planned to re-impose a partial shutdown through the holiday weekend barring a settlement in stalled labor talks with the dockworkers union."