Goldman Sachs

April Payrolls Preview: "It Better Be Good"

After the abysmal March labor report, all we - and the Fed - can say is that April better be good, or else Yellen's claim of "transitory weakness" will simply be the latest nail in the coffin of Fed credibility. Here is the consensus for the key numbers the BLS will report at 8:30am ET on Friday morning.

Pondering The Real Perils Of Risk Parity Portfolios

Following Paul Tudor Jones "terrifying" stock market comments last week, we explain why Jones might be wrong, not about risk parity causing a market dislocation, but instead the market in which risk parity will cause problems.

DOJ Probing Goldman For Rigging Treasury Auctions

While we doubt anything material will emerge for various obvious reasons, the NY Post reports that the DOJ is probing Goldman Sachs for alleged Treasury auction rigging: the charge is that Goldman, one of the 23 US primary dealers, won almost all Treasury bond auctions from 2007 to about 2011.

Frontrunning: May 2

  • Trump Gambles on Big Health Victory (WSJ)
  • Provocateur-in-Chief Trump Pokes His Own Party’s Power Centers (BBG)
  • White House Preparing to Replace Top Banking Regulator (WSJ)
  • Trump’s Trade Warrior Is the Most Unpopular Economist in the Class (BBG)
  • Erdogan says to discuss Syria operations with Russia's Putin, Trump (Reuters)

Are Tax Cuts The Economic Growth 'Cure-All'?

"Will 'Trumponomics' change the course of the U.S. economy? I certainly hope so. Unfortunately, there is no evidence that such has ever been the case. As investors, we must understand the difference between a 'narrative-driven' advance and one driven by strengthening fundamentals. The first is short-term and leads to bad outcomes. The other isn’t, and doesn’t."

Of Bunkers, Bankers, & Black Swans

And suddenly the storms of early Trumptopia subside, or seem to. Rest easy America… oh, and buy every dip... But be warned, a calm surface is exactly what Black Swans like to land on...

The Real Barack Obama Is Finally Exposed To Everyone

"Denial is an extremely powerful thing, and tens of millions of Democrats were completely bamboozled by Obama due to their personal obsession with the man. This is precisely why cult of personality worship is so dangerous and counterproductive when it comes to politics."

What Gary Cohn And Steve Mnuchin Really Said About Trump's Canadian "Trade War"

For the past two days everyone has been trying to figure out the reasoning behind Trump's latest flip-flop on NAFTA.  Speculation and rumors have focused on two last-minute, very convincing calls made directly to Trump from Mexican President Pena Nieto and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.  But, a new revelation from the Wall Street Journal seems to suggest that former Goldmanites Gary Cohn and Steve Mnuchin, the globalist faction of Trump's White House, have been pulling the strings on trade behind the scenes from day 1.