Goldman Sachs

How Big An Impact Will A Rate Hike Have On Oil Prices?

Oil prices could be facing a significant jolt after Federal Chair Janet Yellen, in her annual speech at the Jackson Hole economic symposium in Wyoming, said that the case to increase interest rates had strengthened. The extent of the jolt that may be felt is far from certain however.

Is This Why Deutsche Bank Is Crashing (Again)?

Deutsche's dead-bank-bounce is over. The last few days have seen shares of the 'most systemically dangerous bank in the world' plunge almost 20%, back to record lows as the DoJ fine demands reawoken reality that the €42 trillion-dollar-derivative-book bank is severely under-capitalized no matter how you spin asset values. However, another question looms - Is Deutsche Bank cooking its derivatives book to hide huge losses...

Frontrunning: September 20

  • How Police Tracked Down Bombing Suspect Suspect Ahmad Khan Rahami (WSJ)
  • Dollar Falls With Treasuries Amid Fed, BOJ Countdown; Oil Rises (BBG)
  • Fed again poised to cut longer-run interest rate forecast (Reuters)
  • Pipeline Break Lights a Fire Under Gasoline Prices Across Southeast (WSJ)
  • U.S. investigators seek motive for NY, NJ weekend attacks (Reuters)
  • Carrie Tolstedt: In the Eye of the Wells Fargo Storm (WSJ)

Fooled Again

The naive hopes of Bernie Sanders’ supporters - to build a grass-roots political movement, change the Democratic Party from within and push Hillary Clinton to the left - have failed. The multibillion-dollar extravaganza of our electoral Circus Maximus is part of the smokescreen that covers the ongoing devastation of globalization, deindustrialization, trade deals such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, endless war, climate change and the intrusion into every corner of our lives by the security and surveillance state. Our democracy is dead.

The SEC's Former Top "HFT Expert" Joins HFT Titan Citadel

April 2015, Zero Hedge: "Gregg Berman will find a hospitable and well-paid position after spending 6 years defending the well-paying HFTs lobby. In all likelihood Berman will join the NY Fed's shadow trading desk and the world's most leveraged hedge fund, Citadel itself."
September 2016, WSJ: "Gregg Berman joins Citaldel."

World's Most Bearish Hedge Fund Says Active Manager Capitulation Is "Getting Close"

"Ultimately everyone is forced in. Sometimes this happens through capitulation by previously sceptical investors, or sometimes it happens through pure greed as fear of missing out takes over. The big question is, how close are we to that moment? I think we are indeed getting close. Goldman Sachs data on hedge funds show that top 10 positions for average hedge funds make up 70% of long positions."

China Floods Economy With Over Rmb 1 Trillion In New August Credit

When one month ago China announced that it had created just Rmb 488 billion in new credit as per its broadest credit aggregation metric, Total Social Financing, there was broad concern that the PBOC had again hit the brakes on the country's rampant credit expansion. Those concerns were more than allayed, however, overnight, when the PBOC released its latest August new credit data, which saw total credit grow by well over Rmb 1 trillion.

Global Market Rout Abates As Bond Selloff Pauses, Oil Rebounds

After a sudden rout in financial markets that wiped $2 trillion in global market cap over the past week showed signs of easing, overnight stocks tried to stage another "BTFD-type" comeback with European stocks climbing for the first time in five days as oil and metals prices gained. S&P futures were modestly in green, although they faded earlier gains, on the back of a slide in the USDJPY which initially spiked to 103.31 only to fade back to the mid 102-range.

Step Aside London Whale: Goldman Is Now Using Retail Deposits To Fund Investments

Goldman has been using the proceeds from the new deposits to directly fund speculative activity such as trading and investments, as well as more conventional activity such as creating looans. Goldman Sachs built up its consumer bank, led by 40-year-old Goldman partner and credit trading veteran Gerald Ouderkirk, whose job is to use consumer deposits and other types of funding for trades, investments and loans.

Goldman Slashes September Rate-Hike Odds As Hilsenrath Warns Of Divided Fed

Goldman Sachs' estimate of September rate-hike odds continue to collapse faster than Hillary Clinton as the absence of a clear signal from a series of speeches by Fed officials (concluding with Lael Brainard's headfake). Goldman have reduced their subjective odds for a hike next week to 25% from 40% previously (still above market expectations of 13%) but remains hopeful for December. However, as Fed-whisperer WSJ's Jon Hilsenrath warns, Yellen faces record levels of dissent as she "confronts a divided group of policy-makers."

5 Charts For Fully Invested Bears

“The funny thing is there is a disconnect between what investors are saying and what they are doing. No one thinks all the problems the global financial crisis revealed have been healed. But when you have an equity rally like you’ve seen for the past four or five years, then everybody has had to participate to some extent. What you’ve had are fully invested bears.”

Frontrunning: September 13

  • IEA Changes View on Oil Glut, Sees Surplus Enduring in 2017 (BBG)
  • Futures dip with oil as investors assess rate hike chances (Reuters)
  • Hilsenrath - Divided Federal Reserve Is Inclined to Stand Pat (WSJ)
  • 'I didn't think it was a big deal,' Clinton says of pneumonia bout (Reuters)
  • Clinton's Lead Narrows Among Independents, Voters Nationally (NBC)
  • Libor’s Reaching Point of Pain for Companies With Big Debt Loads (BBG)

Friday Was Just The Start: Here Are Goldman's 5 Reasons Why The Selling Will Continue

(1) Goldman's Sentiment Indicator shows an extreme bullish reading of 95 which suggests the index will decline during the next four weeks; (2) Political uncertainty will rise as the election approaches leading to a lower P/E multiple; (3) Recent economic data has disappointed; (4) Downside risk to EPS forecasts; (5) Equity valuation remains extended.