Goldman Sachs

Goldman Warns Of "One Of The Largest VIX Dislocations On Record"

The VIX has increased on nine consecutive sessions, a new record; and the term structure of SPX implied volatility is now steeply inverted, pricing in a potential wide swing over election week. However, as Goldman Sachs notes, although the VIX is up, the market hasn’t actually been moving that much and that has led to one of the largest VIX dislocations on record. In fact, VIX has overshot its typical beta to the SPX by 5 vol points.

The Establishment Will Get Its "F**K You" No Matter Who Wins

"...I go along with the argument advanced by others that it would probably be better for Hillary to win, because that way the right people (the gang already in power) will be blamed for the descent into the maelstrom and will be expeditiously swept away..."

Goldman Fears "Persistent Headwind To Growth" As State/Tax Revenues Tumble

The latest confirmation that the US economy continues to deteriorate comes not from the Federal Government but from state-level data, where year-over-year growth in state tax revenues slowed dramatically in the last two quarters. As Goldman notes, this has subtracted an average of 0.25 percentage points from GDP growth, raising the question of whether municipal finances could again be a persistent headwind to growth.

Goldman Sachs Still Expects Hillary To Win The Election, But...

For most of the year, Sec. Clinton has been seen as more likely to win the election than any recent candidate at the same point in the race, but the election is now seen to be roughly as uncertain as the average election since 1992... but the recent tightening has reopened a potential path to victory for Mr. Trump, albeit a narrow one.

Politics As Usual Is Dead

In terms of finance and communications, politics as usual - political candidates and narratives mandated by the parties' Ruling Elites and the MSM - is dead. We will all look back in 2026 and wonder why the recognition of this reality took so long.