Goldman Sachs

As we noted previously, for the first time ever, primary dealers' corporate bond inventories have turned unprecedentedly negative. While in the short-term Goldman believes this inventory drawdown is probably a by-product of strong customer demand, they are far more cautious longer-term, warning that the "usual suspects" are not sufficient to account for the striking magnitude of inventory declines... and are increasingly of the view that "the tide is going out" on corporate bond market liquidity implying wider spreads and thus higher costs of funding to compensate for the reduction is risk-taking capacity.

Venezuela is at a political crossroads, with an all-important parliamentary election set to take place in December. Meanwhile, the Venezuelan economy continues to deteriorate as the state seeks to stave off default and a brewing financial crisis. Late last month, Brazil withdrew its involvement in election monitoring after Venezuela rejected the officials Brazil put forward. Maduro is doing his best to keep international observers from scrutinizing the election. The election will take place just as the OPEC meeting will be wrapping up in Vienna, which is expected to yield few benefits for Venezuela. All signs point to OPEC continuing its market share strategy, keeping a lid on any substantial price rebound in the short-run. That does not bode well for Venezuela as it teeters on the brink of catastrophe.

While FANG (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google) has become ubiquitous among the retail investing public still 'trading stocks', now it is time to meet NOSH (Nike, O'Reilly, Starbucks, Home Depot). The reason is simple - without these 8 stocks, the S&P 500 would be down year-to-date... "solid foundation" for the next leg in the bull market? Or teetering inverted pyramid scheme?

Goldman Sachs -> Treasury -> PIMCO -> The Fed

"Using a dataset on developed market business cycles, we calculate that the unconditional odds that a six-year-old expansion will avoid recession for another four years—and mature into a 10-year-old expansion—are about 60%."

To compare someone like Bernie Sanders to bloodthirsty monsters like Stalin and Pol Pot is too ludicrous for words. I've heard of slippery slopes before, but good lord, this guy must be totally off his rocker

With the third quarter earnings season almost over, and 90% of companies having reported, here is a quick look at where we stand and what has emerged as the 4 main themes during earnings calls.

Once again, the two major macroeconomic announcements over the weekend came from China, where we first saw an unexpected, if still to be confirmed, increase in FX reserves, and then Chinese trade data once again disappointed tumbling by 6.9% while imports plunged 18.8%. So how did the market react? The Shanghai Composite Index rose for a fourth day and reached its highest since August 20because more bad data means more easing from the PBOC, and just to give what few investors are left the green light to come back into the pool, overnight Chinese brokers soared after Chinese IPOs returned after a 5 month hiatus. Elsewhere, Stocks and currencies in emerging markets slump on prospect of higher U.S. borrowing costs before year-end and after data underscored slowdown in Asia’s biggest economy. Euro strengthens.

Back in February 2013, the creater of the BRIC acronym, Goldman's Jim O'Neill retired, but not before some very (traditionally) optimistic words of parting, namely that there is "clear evidence things are doing better economically." Nearly three years later, things are not only not doing better economically, with the entire world now engaged in outright, or quasi QE (with helicopter money to follow as Adair Turner infamous warned) just to support global asset prices, but the very emerging markets that made up the BRICs, have devolved to a state of economic freefall. And nowhere is this more obvious than in Goldman's decision to pull the plug on the infamous fund that bears the name of Goldman's most bullish acronym in history.

"Sluggish activity will spur firms to repurchase shares in an effort to boost EPS growth" - Goldman Sachs

While the stock market had one of its best months in years, it was, like the jobs report, uncorroborated by almost everything else. The junk bond bubble, in particular, stands in sharp and stark refutation of whatever stocks might be incorporating, especially if that might be based upon assumptions of Yellen’s re-found backbone. As noted on several prior occasions, swap spreads have been sinking fast and to unprecedented levels. Though mainstream commentary will provide plausible-sounding excuses, mostly about corporate or even UST issuance, that is only because these places will not even consider that Janet Yellen has it all wrong; thus, they only search for possibilities that allow that narrative to remain undisturbed even though that narrative itself can never account for negative spreads.

Today we got yet another confirmation that China's July announcement on its gold holdings merely broke the seal of accumulation when the PBOC reported that its total gold holdings as of October 31 had risen to a record $63.3 billion, up $2.1 billion from $61.2 billion at the end of September, and an increase of 14 tons based on the month-end LBMA gold fix price. This represents the fifth consecutive month in a row in which China has added to its gold.

"Valeant stated today that 1,297,399 shares pledged to Goldman Sachs to secure loans made to chairman and chief executive officer J. Michael Pearson were sold by Goldman Sachs on November 5, 2015.  Goldman Sachs held the shares as collateral for loans extended to Pearson."

• Dollar at three-month high as payrolls paralysis sets in (Reuters)
• 5 Things to Watch in the October Jobs Report (WSJ)
• China to Lift Ban on IPOs (WSJ)
• ArcelorMittal Is Latest Victim of China's Steel-Export Glut (BBG)
• 'Hope to see you again': China warship to U.S. destroyer after South China Sea patrol (Reuters)
• Giants Tighten Grip on Internet Economy (WSJ)
• Questions Surround Valeant CEO Pearson (WSJ)