Remember how awesome everything was yesterday? We have one question - how long before "investors" demand that AAPL is replaced by GOOG in The Dow?
If there were any concerns that retailers and other vendors of goods and services are hunkering down on their ad spending, those fears can be safely swept under the rug because just days after Facebook's dramatic beat, moments ago GOOG likewise slammed expectations by beating massively both on the top and bottom line.
The one question on everyone's lips, is whether aside from a "interim low", was Wednesday's flush the market's lows for the foreseeable future, and certainly for the first quarter.Bank of America responds.
Just before the US equity market topped out last August, none other than infamous stock-chart-extrapolator Laszlo Birinyi ventured on to CNBC and proclaimed that the S&P 500 will hit 3,200 by the end of 2017. Since the soprano uttered that extreme, US equity markets have collapsed not just once, but twice and now trade at levels first seen over two years ago...
The former market leaders are all beginning to breakdown. Has the market top finally hit?
At the end of the day, the current preposterous $325 billion market cap has nothing to do with the business prospects of this firm or the considerable entrepreneurial prowess of its leader and his army of disrupters. It is more in the nature of financial rigor mortis - the final spasm of the robo-traders and the fast money crowd chasing one of the greatest bubbles still standing in the casino.
My overriding theme and the central drama for the coming year is that unexpected events can take on greater importance as the Federal Reserve ends its near-decade-long Zero Interest Rate Policy. Consensus premises and forecasts will likely fall flat, in a rather spectacular manner. The low-conviction and directionless market that we saw in 2015 could become a no-conviction and very-much-directed market (i.e. one that's directed lower) in 2016. There will be no peace on earth in 2016, and our markets could lose a cushion of protection as valuations contract. (Just as "malinvestment" represented a key theme this year, we expect a compression of price-to-earnings ratios to serve as a big market driver in 2016.) In other words, we don't think 2016 will be fun.
Without being able to predict the election outcome in 2016, it will be prudent to keep cash levels high in order to maintain flexibility. Furthermore with the leading beta asset classes starting to exhibit corrections, there are growing signs that the investing environment is changing, which should give investors pause.
In High Stakes Game of the Future of Finance, Reggie Middleton Challenges Goldman Sachs Patent Filing With EaseSubmitted by Reggie Middleton on 12/04/2015 04:59 -0500
Year end 2015, we go from Ponzi scheme to failure to the thing every major global bank desires. The dilemma is, the ingenuity to excel in this space lies in scrappy young startups, not trillion dollar mega banks. Let me prove this to you, step by prior art step.
The just concluded 13-F bonanza shows that "some of the world’s top hedge fund managers scaled back their U.S. stock investments last quarter as markets tumbled." Below, courtesy of Bloomberg, is the full summary of what the most prominent hedge fund names did in Q3...
If one looks at the NDX alone, one would have to conclude that the bull market is perfectly intact. The same is true of selected sub-sectors, but more and more sectors or stocks within sectors are waving good-bye to the rally. Even NDX and Nasdaq Composite have begun to diverge of late, underscoring the extreme concentration in big cap names. Naturally, divergences can be “repaired”, and internals can always improve. The reality is however that we have been able to observe weakening internals and negative divergences for a very long time by now, and they sure haven’t improved so far. In terms of probabilities, history suggests that it is more likely that the big caps will eventually succumb as well.