Commercial Real Estate

This Has Never Happened Outside Of A Recession

The Fed's latest Senior Loan Officer Survey for July 2016 showed that banks continued to tighten standards on commercial loans in 2016 for both commercial and industrial (C&I) and commercial real estate (CRE). This was the fourth straight quarter of tighter standards: something that has never happened outside of a recession.

Chinese Stocks Sink Over Fears Regulators Will Curb Wealth Management Schemes

Overnight China's Banking Regulatory Commission drafted new rules curbing the nation’s multi-trillion market for wealth management products, which was not taken well by the local stock market, leading to a plunge in stocks in early Chinese trading, before rebounding at the close of trading. China's ChiNext index of smaller companies sank as much as 5.5%.

Vancouver Finally Cracks Down On Chinese Home Buyers With 15% Real Estate Tax

The British Columbia government finally took our advice to stem hot money inflows into real estate by announcing a 15% transfer tax on foreign nationals who buy real estate in Metro Vancouver.  Finance Minister Mike de Jong unveiled the tax, which will take effect on August 2nd, after recent housing data revealed that foreign nationals spent more than $1 billion on British Columbia property between June 10 and July 14, or a mere $28.6mm per day.

"All-Time-Highs"

"...central bankers seem to view elevated security valuations as “wealth.” The longer this fallacy persists, the worse the subsequent fallout will be. I have little doubt that future generations will look at the reckless arrogance of today’s central bankers no differently than we view speculators in the South Sea Bubble and the Dutch Tulip-mania. Unfortunately, there is no mechanism by which historically-informed pleas of “no, stop, don’t!” will penetrate their dogmatic conceit. Nor can we change the psychology of investors."

JPM Revenue Rebounds On Stronger Fixed Income Trading, Jump In Lending

JPMorgan Chase & Co., the biggest U.S. bank by assets, said second-quarter profit fell 1.4 percent, beating analysts’ estimates as fixed-income trading revenue and loan growth jumped. Revenue climbed 2.8 percent to $25.2 billion, beating the $24.5 billion average estimate of seven analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The company said average core loans increased 16 percent from a year earlier.

US Futures, Global Markets Storm Higher As More Details Emerge About Japan's "Helicopter Money"

The global meltup continues with the S&P set to open at new all time highs, some 20 points higher from yesterday's close, however the driver for the latest rally is not so much the imminent BOE announcement which is expected to cut rates by 25 bps from 0.50%, but a dramatic surge in the USDJPY just after 1am Eastern when Bloomberg revealed more details about Ben Bernanke's masterplan for Japan's helicopter money.

6 Regional Feds Voted To Hike The Discount Rate In Early June, Up From 4 In April

Back in April, when the world was still reeling from the China devaluation inflicted market slump, the Fed's discount rate minutes for the months of March/April showed that 4 regional Feds wanted a 25 bps rate hike, up from just two  - the Richmond Fed and Kansas City - in the Feb/March meeting. Moments ago the Fed released its latest May/June Discount Rate Minutes which revealed that both the (Jim Bullard's) St. Louis and Boston Feds joined four other regional Feds, Cleveland, Richmond, Kansas City and San Francisco, in seeking a quarter point increase in Fed discount rate to 1.25 percent prior to the June 14-15 FOMC meeting.

US Futures Rebound After Volatile Session, All Eyes On June Payrolls

In a session where bleary-eyed traders followed the all-night tragic developments out of Dallas and initially sold off risk assets, it is good to see that some normalcy prevailed with the traditional post Europe-open futures ramp, which was further assisted by the successful resolution of the Dallas standoff, which has pushed futures modestly higher ahead of today's main event for markets, the June payrolls report due in under two hours.

"Whatever It Takes" Remains The New Normal

"Flaws reminiscent of some of the most obtuse assumptions that led to the financial crisis and have been the cornerstone of extraordinary monetary policies since then."

Domino #7: In Dramatic Twist, UK Property Fund Cuts Value Of Its Assets By 17%

Instead of suspending trading and implicitly disallowing redemptions, giant fund manager Aberdeen has forced investors in its UK Property fund to take a 17% haircut wiping hundreds of millions of dollars off its value. The fund stated that shareholders wishing to redeem will do so at a reduced price in order to reflect the current market environment and the fact that short term trading in the property market has "relatively penal consequences." Which makes us wonder - is all this post-Brexit selling because UK property prices are 20% over valued?

It's Not The Brexit Stupid!

Brexit is just a symptom of the disease eating away at the fabric of our global economy. Lehman’s collapse was not the cause of the 2008 worldwide financial crisis. It was just the excuse for something that was going to happen no matter what. Bad debt, bad bankers, bad regulators, bad politicians, media cheer leading, and a willfully ignorant populace were a toxic combination – and it’s worse today.