Commercial Real Estate

The Fed Still Has On Its Beer Goggles

"The danger with these econometricians is they don’t know their own limitations, and they have a far greater sense of confidence in their analyses than I have found to be warranted... They are, however, dangerous to people like you and the politicians because you don’t know their limitations, and you are impressed and confused by the elaborate models and mathematics."

Houston Commercial Rents Plunge As Vacancies Hit 22-Year High

There is seemingly no end to the growing problem of commercial real estate vacancies across the country.  And while we've spent a lot of time talking about the largest markets of New York and San Francisco, Houston, one of the hardest hit markets from the collapse of oil prices, is also in the midst of its own real estate collapse.

What Makes Millennials Disturbingly Different?

In stealth fashion millennials are rapidly transforming society...The era of the US economy sustaining itself via consumption may die as the Millennials become the economy! Their motivations and expectations are completely different than any prior generation and the changes will be profound.

Is The Fed's Balance Sheet Headed For The Crapper?

It’s no secret the plumbers at the Fed are feverishly devising a way to unwind their $4.5 trillion balance sheet with officials claiming this will nary elicit an inkling of a disturbance in the markets they’ve coddled all these years. But one must wonder, at the timing, at the ostensive optics, if nothing else...Unless, that is, the motivations of shrinkage are less than magnanimous and dare one say, immoral.

The Unavoidable Pension Crisis

"A bear market is coming which will be the match that lights the fuse... The real crisis comes when there is a 'run on pensions' when 'fear' prevails benefits will be lost entirely."

Global Stocks Rebound From Overnight Lows, On Edge Ahead Of Trump-Xi Meeting

S&P futures are little changed at 6am ET, trading at 2347.55 and paring an earlier 0.4 percent drop, on the back of the USDJPY ramp which for the second day in a row has emerged alongside the European open, soothing concerns about the Fed's balance sheet reduction and "some" Fed officials warning that stocks have gotten expensive. While Asian stocks fall in early trading, European bourses rebounded from session lows alongside the S&P and USDJPY.

FOMC Minutes: Balance Sheet To Shrink This Year; Some Saw Stock Prices As "Quite High"

Two key messages in today's Fed minutes: i) the Fed hopes to begin reducing its balance sheet this year and  ii) some Fed members are worried that stocks are in a bubble. And then the following surprising admission: the Fed explicitly warns of "downside risks" to its forecasts if "financial markets were to experience a significant correction."