Commercial Real Estate

Econophile's picture

Mainstream economists and economics have a miserable record of forecasting the future of the economy. The Crash of '08 and the Great Recession demonstrated that their "science" is obviously wrong. If you continue to follow them you will get crushed in the next bust. And it's not just the mainstreamers who get it wrong. Here's who you should pay attention to and some guidelines to evaluate them.

"You Should Take The Fed At Their Word"

"We think they’re going to be... getting more worried about some of the negative consequences of QE, the fact that it encourages risk taking and may create some issues for the banks...”

Dead Mall Stalking: One Hedge Fund Manager's Tour Across Middle-America – Part 3

"Despite my belief in a mass-extinction event for retail and commercial real estate...there’s a whole class of goods that can be sold online, but sell better in person... retailed by local individuals who are perceptive to local tastes and can adapt rapidly to changes in their local community. The whole 'local' movement is alive and well. The internet cannot compete with that."

FOMC Minutes Signal Balance Sheet Normalization Begins In September, Most Saw Inflation Pick Up

Since the July 26th 'nothingburger' FOMC statement, Nasdaq is down but bonds and bullion are higher as domestic politics and global war have trumped monetary machinations. All eyes in today's Minutes will be on any mention of inflation and the balance sheet. The Fed sees inflation "picking up over the next couple years" but this came before last week's dismal CPI/PPI data (and they noted "downside risks"), and confirmed that they will make a balance sheet move "at upcoming meeting."

The New American Dream: Rent Your Home From A Hedge Fund

"...there’s essentially an ‘arms race’ building among the world’s biggest funds to control the market, squeezing small, individual investors out of the 'buy-to-rent' housing market...the American Dream of owning your own home has been fading."

UBS Explains Why The Next Credit Unwind Will Be Unlike Anything We've Seen Before

Several weeks ago, Janet Yellen boldly declared "I don't believe we will see another crisis in our lifetime."  For the rest of us who live in reality there is little doubt that the latest Fed-fueled credit bubble will eventually burst in epic fashion and once again lay waste to the personal balance sheets of millions of Americans.  The question isn't so much 'if', but rather 'how' and 'when.'