Commercial Real Estate
This white paper is a thorough analysis of the current economic situation and what are the most likely outcomes. The result is that the U.S. will be joining the rest of the world in an economic decline. This is not a new recession but a continuation of the existing one. Many of the data reports from the government, especially GDP, are grossly misleading and paint a hopeful but false picture of what is happening. We give our forecast for the next six months.
Time to start stocking up on those long term, OTM armageddon puts yet?
When was the last time a politician prevented a crash by causing his/her car to instantly freeze in mid-collision? Exactly! Expect the same amount of success with these multiple, financially engineered schemes to get around recognizing the only true solution - DEBT DESTRUCTION - and by the boat loads!
Are The Conservative Dutch Immune To Contagion? Are You Safe During An Earthquake Because You Keep You Keep Your Shoes Tied?Submitted by Reggie Middleton on 11/17/2011 15:35 -0500
This collapse will come in waves, and the CRE wave hasn't even started yet. When it does come, it will crash against the Sovereign defaults and rate storms to combine with a derivative malaise that will collapse much of the banking system. Ok, now for the bad news...
We are far enough away from the onset of the Great Recession that another down-wave in the depression (or a new recession if you go by NBER) is either here or due soon. It may not be a severe downturn, as housing and autos would be falling from first- or second-floor windows in that case, but it would be occurring on the backdrop of a weakened structure, and thus the financial effects could be more severe than the economic effects (which could be severe or mild). Here is what you need to do.
Not saying anything, but wink wink nudge nudge. Because you know when dealers need to hedge massive cash exposure in suddenly mispriced commercial real estate (oh, look, it's a Chinese fighter jet, it's the stock price of Morgan Stanley, it's a REIT) the one place they all go to next is... And there is nothing like some concerted selling in a brand spanking new product in which the entire dealer community is long.
Hunting the Squid, Part 5: Sometimes Your Local Superhero Doesn't Look Like What They Show You In The MoviesSubmitted by Reggie Middleton on 10/07/2011 09:14 -0500
Geithner said US banks aren't at risk, shares spiked. He's considered a (super)hero by some. I say look to track record, TRUTH, facts & actual accomplishments for our new superheroes! Here are some Goldman Sachs FACTS Geithner forgot to mention!!! Must have left them home with his cape...
It's ironic that the police came out in force to protect the institutions whose massive bonus's were derived, in large part, from raping and pillaging professional sheeple pools such as police pension funds. That's the sound of the beast...
Ignoring the knee-jerk reaction of stocks to rally 4% on the headlines that Dexia will be save and other banks will be recapitalized, it is worth thinking about what this really means and the next logical steps. For now I will not even focus on the fact that this was from a meeting of Finance Ministers and not heads of state. I left my "EU Leadership" trading cards at the office, but so far, not many of the big names, who can actually close the deal, have spoken. I won't even focus on the fact that Dexia has been on the fringe of "contagion" discussion. Look at articles about "contagion" or "debt crisis" and PIIGS and French Banks and German Banks and Italian Banks show up in nearly every article. Dexia is discussed less frequently, though ZeroHedge has been on top of it for awhile. So stocks rose 4% on a plan of a plan to plan a plan for a bank they hadn't heard of until this morning. Hmmm.
Last week the DJIA tumbled the most since 2008, while gold had an even more profound collapse. Yet did the economic news justify such a plunge? You decided - here is the summary recap of last week's key bullish and bearish events.
More from a Solyndra insider. This time he takes on the WaPo.
Does anyone seriously believe that the reason we have high unemployment in America is because we have a substandard infrastructure? Apparently the politicians in Washington believe so.
BoomBust BNP Paribas? This Article Is A Hard Hitting Piece That EVERY MSM Outlet Needs To Pick Up On, IMMEDIATELY!Submitted by Reggie Middleton on 09/13/2011 15:40 -0500
This post, in and of itself, should demonstrate to the entire Sell Side of Wall Street, the MSM/pop media outlets and all who may follow them that BoomBustBlog forensic research and analysis is simply superior to much of what is available and significantly overpaid for in terms of investment advice and opinion.
It is a sad commentary on conventional economics that their well-intentioned policies will achieve the exact opposite of full employment. Obama's remedies will do nothing but perpetuate long-term high unemployment. And that is a hell of a gift to workers on Labor Day.