Commercial Real Estate

"We've Never Had A Shock To The System Like This" - Global Selloff Accelerates On Brexit, Italy, "Unknown" Fears

The flight to safety following last week's quarter-end window dressing is accelerating, with constant news and flashing red headlines of record low yields across DM government bonds once the norm, and as of moments ago Denmark's 10Y bonds joined the exclusive club of sub-zero yields; gold has soared to fresh multi-year highs above $1,370, the risk-off currency, the Yen, soaring and sending the USDJPY just above 100, while sterling crashed overnight once again below 1.27, levels not seen since 1985.

Time To Take The Fed's Warning Seriously: CMBS Has "Greatest Ever Monthly Delinquency Increase"

15 loans totaling $221MM became newly delinquent in June. In total, 71 loans with a balance of $760.6MM were delinquent in June, resulting in a delinquency rate of 32bp. The $142MM month-over-month increase in the volume of delinquent loans was the greatest ever - it eclipses the $116MM increase in March 2016 and compares to an average monthly increase of $40.7MM.

Frontrunning: July 5

  • Pound Tumbles to 31-Year Low as Its Post-Brexit Selloff Resumes (BBG)
  • Bad Debt Piled in Italian Banks Looms as Next Crisis (WSJ)
  • Stock Market to Bond Market: ‘La-La-La I Can’t Hear You' (WSJ)
  • A Prime Minister, a Referendum and Italy’s Turn to Get Worried (BBG)
  • Brexit Vote Paralyzes Companies Across Europe  (WSJ)

Bank Of England Unveils First Easing Measures After Brexit

In its first official easing act, the Financial Policy Committee lowered the countercyclical-capital buffer rate for UK exposures to zero from .5% of risk-weighted assets in a move that it said would raise the capacity for bank lending to households and businesses by as much as £150 billion. "This action reinforces the FPC’s view that all elements of the substantial capital and liquidity buffers that have been built up by banks are to be drawn on, as necessary" the committee said in a statement.

Bear Stearns 2.0? UK's Largest Property Fund Halts Redemptions, Fears "Vicious Circle"

In the summer of 2007, two inconsequential Bear Stearns property-related funds were gated and then liquidated, exposing the reality of the US housing bubble and catalyzing the collapse of the financial system. Fast forward eight years later when the UK's Standard Life has been forced to stop retail investors selling out of one of the UK’s largest property funds for at least 28 days after rapid cash outflows, due to fears over falling real estate values: "the risk is this creates a vicious circle, and prompts more investors to dump property."

Stress Test 2016: Fed Says All 33 Banks Can Surive 70 VIX Without Needing Outside Capital

While hardly coming as a surprise to anyone, moments ago the Fed announced that all 33 banks have enough capital to withstand a severe economic shock, though Morgan Stanley trailed the rest of Wall Street in a key measure of leverage, Bloomberg reports. The biggest bank cleared the most severe scenario handily, with the exception of Morgan Stanley whose projected 4.9% leverage ratio tied for last place alongside a Canadian bank’s U.S. unit, falling within a percentage point of the 4 percent minimum. As a result of today's "test result" many banks will likely win regulators' approval next week to boost dividends.

Futures Flat Ahead Of Strike-Impacted Jobs Report; Commodities Approach Bull Market

After yesterday's two key events, the ECB and OPEC meetings, ended up being major duds, the market is looking at the week's final and perhaps most important event of the week: the May payrolls report to generate some upward volatility and help stocks finally break out of the range they have been caught in for over a year.

Here's Why All Pension Funds Are Doomed, Doomed, Doomed

It's looking increasingly likely that third time's the charm: this set of bubbles is the last one central banks can blow. And when markets free-fall and don't reflate into new bubbles, pension funds will expire, as they were fated to do the day central banks chose zero interest rates forever as their cure for a broken economic model.

Gundlach Predicts Yellen Will Be Dovish Today; Is "Quite Sure" Oil Prices Are Going Down Again

With verious Fed presidents having whipping up the market into a hawkish frenzy in the past two weeks, leading to a dramatic repricing in summer rate hike odds with expectations for a July rate hike now over 50%, many can be "disappointed" by Yellen's speech today, at least according to Jeff Gundlach who said Yellen appears to be more cautious on raising interest rates and he expects her comments to be dovish again on Friday, when she is scheduled to speak at an event in Harvard-Radcliffe.

What Manipulation Does To The Free Market

Had the federal government held a constant measuring stick rather than "tinkering, engineering, distorting" key government calculations such as the size of the economy (GDP), the rate of inflation, level of unemployment, or size of federal deficits and federal debt...the reality we face would be plain and honest choices needed.  Instead, the responsibility of those working for "the people" has been breached via falsifying and distorting each of these (over decades).  This consistently improves the output and does not allow a true means to quantify and qualify the nations health.  Simply put, the government has continually tinkered, tampered, and distorted the accounting so as to mislead or create a falsely positive appearance. 

Every Time This Has Happened, A Recession Followed

As of today, we now have three consecutive quarters of tightening lending standards. In fact, based on the latest survey, net lending standards tightened even more than during Q4 as shown in the chart below, and are now the tightest on net since the financial crisis. Needless to say, if a recession and a default cycle has always followed two quarters of tighter lending conditions, three quarters does not make it better.