Chrysler

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The Channel-Stuffed GDP Report





There was not much in the GDP report that was unexpected, except durable goods.  The decline in durable goods was comparable to Q2 2011, right down to the primary driver of that weakness - motor vehicles.  However, there was no earthquake in Japan this year to disrupt supply chains, production schedules and brand availability.  Just like last year, marginal economic growth overall seems to be backfilled with a tide of inventory.  The trouble with inventory at the margins of growth is that it is essentially a build-up of forward demand, and therefore susceptible to reversal should overdone production move out of alignment with final demand.  Both monetary and fiscal policies actively seek to pull forward demand, meaning this inventory-driven activity conforms to policy goals. It's almost like the 1960's and 70's, with motor vehicles and government spending driving the marginal economy again.  All that’s missing is for Ralph Nader to show up and write about how cars are dangerous.

 
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Labor Unions: The New, Old SuperPACs?





Much has been said about the evil crony capitalism inflicted upon America as a result of PAC, SuperPACs, corporate donations, and just general bribery on behalf of America's corporations in broad terms, and Wall Street in narrow (and Private Equity firms in uber-narrow) terms. But is there an even bigger destabilizing force of "cronyness" in America? According to the WSJ, there well may be: labor unions. Yes: those same entities that are so critical for Obama's reelection campaign that the president abrogated property rights and overturned the entire bankruptcy process in the case of GM and Chrysler, to benefit various forms of organized labor at the expense of evil, evil bondholders (represented on occasion by such even more evil entities as little old grandmas whose retirement money had been invested in GM bonds), appear to have a far greater impact in bribe-facilitated decision-making than previously thought.

 
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Barclays Wins Euromoney's Best Global Debt, Best Investment Bank, And Best Global Flow House Of The Year Awards





Financial magazine Euromoney, which in addition to being a subscription-based publication appears to also rely on bank advertising, has just held its 2012 Awards for Excellence dinner event. And in the "you can't make this up" category we have Barclays winning the Best Global Debt House, Best Investment Bank, And Best Global Flow House Of The Year Awards. Specifically we learn that "the bank’s commitment to the US is exemplified by the addition of another global senior manager to the country – Tom Kalaris is now going to be splitting his time between New York and London as executive chairman of the Americas as well as overseeing wealth management. Jerry del Missier, who has overseen the corporate and investment bank through its Lehman integration and was recently appointed COO of the Barclays group, says the bank is well positioned. "We came out of the crisis in a stronger strategic position and that has allowed us to continue to win market share and build our franchise. Keep in mind that the US is the largest investment banking, wealth management, credit card and investment management market in the world, and in terms of fee share will remain the most dynamic economy in the world for many years. As a strong global, universal bank operating in a competitive environment that is undergoing significant retrenchment, we like our position." That said, with the Chairman, CEO and COO all now fired, just who was it who accepted the various award: the firm's LIBOR setting team? And if so, were they drinking Bollinger at the dinner?

 
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Frontrunning: July 5





  • Finland (which with Holland account for 50% of the Eurozone's AAA rated countries), just says "Ei" to stripping ESM subordination (Bloomberg)
  • Libor Rate Scandal Set to Spread (WSJ)
  • #ByeBarclays flashmob descends on bank (FinExtra)
  • What is financial reform in China? (Pettis)
  • Cities Consider Seizing Mortgages (WSJ)
  • China Beige Book Shows Pickup Unseen in Official Data (BBG)
  • China’s New Rules May Curb Credit Growth, CBRC Official Says (BBG)
  • India Said to Pay in Euros for Iranian Oil Due to Rupee Hurdles (BBG)
  • Wealthy Hit Hardest as France Raises Taxes (FT)
  • Euro Bank Supervisor Faces Hurdles (WSJ)
 
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Frontrunning: July 4





  • Most Germans Reject Ceding Sovereignty to EU, Stern Poll Shows (Bloomberg)
  • How Stockton went broke: A 15-year spending binge (Reuters)
  • Manchester United Shoots for $100 Million IPO (WSJ)... with 4x leverage and Jefferies as underwriter
  • Iran says can destroy U.S. bases "minutes after attack" (Reuters)
  • Poison claims spark call for Arafat exhumation  (FT)
  • Diamond Would Be Catch for Investment, Private Equity (Bloomberg)
  • Investors may shun big Libor lawsuit and go it alone (Reuters)
  • New Particle Found, Consistent With Higgs Boson (WSJ)
  • Chinese riot police clash with protesters  (FT)
  • Euro-Area June Manufacturing, Services Output Contracts (Bloomberg)
  • Utilities Struggle to Restore Power in East (WSJ)
  • Dark economic clouds gather anew over Obama campaign (Reuters)
 
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Q&A On Today's Obamacare Supreme Court Decision





In about an hour, the US Supreme Court, three years after Chrysler, is about to have a profound impact on Wall Street one more time. As Goldman explains, the court is expected to release some of the final opinions of the current session, which ends this week. Rulings on the Affordable Care Act (ACA) as well as the Arizona immigration law are likely to capture the greatest amount of attention. With a number of opinions to get out, it is possible the court could wait until later this week (possibly Thursday, June 28) to release some of the remaining rulings for this term, though the court has not yet announced any additional dates for the release of opinions. Trading in the online prediction market intrade.com implies a 74% probability that the court will find the mandate unconstitutional; prior to the oral arguments in March, it implied only around a 35% probability the court would rule against the mandate. Goldman believes that the outcome is fairly unpredictable and that many market participants probably are relying too heavily on the oral arguments in trying to predict the outcome of the case.

 
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Frontrunning: June 15





  • Greece is Relevant: Central Banks Warn Greek-Led Euro Stress Threatens World (Bloomberg)
  • Greece is very Relevant: World Economies Prepare for Panic After Greek Polls (Reuters)
  • ECB's Draghi flags euro risks, spurs rate cut talk (Reuters)
  • And as usual, beggars can be choosers... Hollande Urges Common Euro Debt, Greater ECB Role (Reuters)
  • Wait and flee - Electoral uncertainty sends the economy into suspended animation (Economist)
  • The EU Smiled While Spain’s Banks Cooked the Books (Bloomberg)
  • Osborne’s £100bn Plan for UK Economy (FT)
  • Two Cheers for Britain’s Bank Reform Plans: Martin Wolf (FT)
  • BOJ Holds Policy Ahead of Greek Vote with Eye on Global Markets (Bloomberg)
  • China Hits Back at U.S. Criticisms at WTO (Reuters)
 
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The Ten IPO Commandments





There's been a lot of hand-wringing about busted Initial Public Offerings of late, but the process itself is hardly rocket science.  Like Tolstoy's comment about families, every "Happy" IPO is essentially the same, while every miserable one is different in its own way.  There are rules to the successful IPO, and today we offer up ConvergEx's Nic Colas' manual, a step-by-step checklist for investors to assess if an offering is on track.  From maintaining the illusion of scarcity to managing company and investor expectations, the road from salesforce "teach-in" to final pricing is narrow but well-marked.

 
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Dart 1: Greece 0; And Just Desserts For Lemming PSI Participants





Two months ago, to much fanfare, Greece and the IIF announced what a smashing success the forced cram down that was the Greek PSI (memories of GM and Chrysler should be flooding back here) was. The thinking went that Greece avoided bankruptcy, co-opted lemming creditors avoided pursuing what is rightfully theirs in exchange for a 75% haircut, hold out hedge funds would be blown out of the water for daring to not go with the herd of 96.6%, but most importantly, Europe was saved! Today, Europe is no longer saved, and all those hedge funds that folded like cheap lawn chairs in agreeing to Europe's extortion are getting annihilated, because as the chart below shows, the NEW Greek bonds have now seen their dollar price cut in half since the PSI. Which means that total looses on original Greek debt, for those who did agree to the PSI's arm-twisisting terms are now about 90%. Just desserts. But what happened to those other few who followed our advice, bought UK-law bonds, and told the group to shove it? Here's what...

 
testosteronepit's picture

What On Earth Were They Thinking at GM?





Investing in an uncompetitive company in the ugly EU auto market to bail out its own failing subsidiary.

 
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Frontrunning: April 4





  • Low cost era over for China's workshops to the world (Reuters)
  • The HFT scourge never ends: SEC Probes Ties to High-Speed Traders (WSJ)
  • Rehn says Portugal may need "bridge" (Reuters)
  • China's GDP likely to have slowed in the first quarter (China Daily)
  • Chinese Premier Blasts Banks (WSJ)
 
testosteronepit's picture

The Nightmare of the European Auto Industry





Bailed-out but un-restructured. And now Fiat-Chrysler CEO is crying for help as EU car sales crash.

 
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Guest Post: Asleep At The Wheel





Americans have an illogical love affair with their vehicles. There are 209 million licensed drivers in the U.S. and 260 million vehicles. The U.S. has a higher number of motor vehicles per capita than every country in the world at 845 per 1,000 people. Germany has 540; Japan has 593; Britain has 525; and China has 37. The population of the United States has risen from 203 million in 1970 to 311 million today, an increase of 108 million in 42 years. Over this same time frame, the number of motor vehicles on our crumbling highways has grown by 150 million. This might explain why a country that has 4.5% of the world’s population consumes 22% of the world’s daily oil supply. This might also further explain the Iraq War, the Afghanistan occupation, the Libyan “intervention”, and the coming war with Iran. Automobiles have been a vital component in the financial Ponzi scheme that has passed for our economic system over the last thirty years. For most of the past thirty years annual vehicle sales have ranged between 15 million and 20 million, with only occasional drops below that level during recessions. They actually surged during the 2001-2002 recession as Americans dutifully obeyed their moron President and bought millions of monster SUVs, Hummers, and Silverado pickups with 0% financing from GM to defeat terrorism. Alan Greenspan provided the fuel, with ridiculously low interest rates. The Madison Avenue media maggots provided the transmission fluid by convincing millions of willfully ignorant Americans to buy or lease vehicles they couldn’t afford. And the financially clueless dupes pushed the pedal to the metal, until everyone went off the cliff in 2008.

 
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The Rebirth of the Actively Managed U.S. Stock Fund





The persistent negative investment flows at U.S. listed mutual funds specializing in domestic stocks is one of the most important long-term trends catalyzed by the Financial Crisis.  AUM has dropped by $473 billion since January 2007 despite the S&P 500 Index’s essentially flat performance over this period.  The news is no better since the beginning of 2012 – despite the ongoing rally in domestic equities – with $6.8 billion of further outflows year to date.  In today’s note Nic Colas, of ConvergEx analyzes what will reverse this trend along two vectors: the desire and ability of individuals to invest. The rally in risk assets, along with declining actual volatility, is the best hope for a reversal in money flow trends. Offsetting that factor are continued stresses on household budgets and consumer psychology combined with problematic demographic trends. Bottom line: domestic money flows have likely become more economically sensitive than in previous cycles

 
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