San Francisco Fed

Futures, Dollar Slide; European Stocks At 3-Week Lows As "Trump Reality Sets In"

While US stocks closed near session, and all time highs on Friday, the first green close on inauguration day in over 50 years, Monday has seen a modest case of buyer's remorse, with European stocks sliding, Asian shares mixed and U.S. futures lower as the dollar weakened for the 3rd consecutive day to a six-week low, dropping as much as 1% against the Yen, as anxious investors awaited more details of Donald Trump’s policies.

S&P Futures, Dollar Rise As World Awaits Trump Inauguration Speech

"All eyes will be on the content and style of Trump's inauguration speech," Morgan Stanley's Hans Redeker wrote in a note.  "The more 'Presidential' this speech comes across, the better the outcome for markets." And as BonY added, "If Trump ramps up the rhetoric the market will be concerned about building long dollar positions."

Key Events In The Coming Week: Trump Inauguration, Davos, Theresa May, ECB, China GDP

The week ahead will be a busy one, with a plethora of events including the Davos shindig, where particular focus will be on Chinese President Xi Jinping, the first Chinese president to attend. China will also announce GDP on Friday, which also marks the inauguration of Donald Trump as the 45th US president. Tuesday brings Theresa May's long-awaited Brexit speech.

US Futures Flat Ahead Of December Payrolls; Dollar Rebounds

European shares fell modestly, Asian equities declined for the first day in three, and US equity futures were unchanged before the December U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. China’s offshore yuan fell the most in a year to pare a record weekly rally, while Mexico’s peso climbed after the central bank sold dollars. Oil was trading lower in early trading.

Dave Collum's 2016 Year In Review - "And Then Things Got Really Weird..."

"Markets don’t have a purpose any more - they just reflect whatever central planners want them to. Why wouldn’t it lead to the biggest collapse? My strategy doesn’t require that I’m right about the likelihood of that scenario. Logic dictates to me that it’s inevitable..."

"A Barrage Of Fed Speakers": The Key Events In The Coming Very Busy Week

As markets continue to digest the implications of the US election outcome, there is a host of data and Central Bank communication adding to the running narrative with Fed speakers appearing on every single day of the week. In addition to barrage of daily Fed speakers, including Chair Yellen, we get US inflation data, retail sales, housing data, empire manufacturing, industrial production and the Philly Fed.

Everything Is Soaring As Trump Makes Buying Stuff Great Again

The global repricing of inflation expectations continues at a feverish pace in the aftermath of the Trump victory, leading to another surge in US equity futures, up 15 points or 0.7% to 2175 at last check, with Asian and European stock market all surging after the initial shock of Trump’s election victory gave way to optimism for fiscal stimulus will provide a boost to the global economy.  Commodity metals soared with copper surging the most since May 2013.

Key Events In The Coming Presidential Election Week

The US election this Tuesday is the main focus of the week. The key economic release this week is University of Michigan consumer sentiment on Friday. There are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week. 

Global Stocks Jump On Mega Merger Monday, Buoyed By Earnings, PMIs, Politics

Global stocks jumped around the globe, with Europe's Stoxx 600 and US equity futures rising more than 0.5% on a surge in merger announcements over the weekend including the $85 billion mega takeout of AT&T for Time Warner, the $6.4 billion acquisition of B/E Aerospace by Rockwell Collins, the $2.7 billion deal targeting Genworth by China Oceanwide and the just announced $4 billion purchase of Scotttrade by Ameritrade.

Futures Drop As ECB Confusion Persists, Dollar Rises To Seven Month High; Yuan Plunges

Asian stocks and S&P futures fall modestly and European shares are little changed as traders digested the surprising reticence from yesterday's ECB meeting. The dollar jumped to 7 month highs, pressuring EM currencies and pushing the euro to its weakest level since March and below the Brexit lows, after Mario Draghi shut down talk of tapering, while the Yuan dropped to the lowest since 2010.

Key Events In The Coming Week

The key economic releases this week include industrial production on Monday, CPI on Tuesday, and housing starts on Wednesday. There are several scheduled speeches from Fed officials this week. The Beige Book for the November FOMC period will be released on Wednesday.

Gold Money's picture

Recent comments of FOMC members have sent real rates higher and gold lower, something we have witnessed several times this year. Since the beginning of the year, the FED has tried to appear hawkish while the actual policy outlook has in fact become ever more dovish. At this point, the FEDs own guidance for interest rates suggest there is very little downside for gold, but there are many more potential drivers to the upside

Bernanke Urges Use Of Negative Rates When Next Recession Strikes

"the fact that negative rates would be temporary and deployed only during severely adverse economic conditions would be an advantage. Like quantitative easing, which was also unpopular in many quarters, a period of negative rates would probably be tolerated by politicians if properly motivated and explained" - Ben Bernanke

Goldman Cuts September Rate Hike Odds To 40%, Just Days After Raising Them To 55%

Goldman: "we are lowering our subjective odds of a rate increase at the September FOMC meeting from 55% to 40%. We are nudging up the odds of a rate increase at the December meeting to 30% from 25%, but taking the cumulative odds for at least one hike this year down to 70% from 80%. With slightly softer data and less “time on the clock”, a rate increase this year now looks a bit less certain, in our view."