White House

• Only update software on down days: NYSE, SEC Suspect Software Update Triggered Trading Halt (BBG)
• Trade halts add to China’s Potemkin market problem (Reuters)
• Why Beijing’s Efforts Have Failed to Tame China’s Stock Market (WSJ)
• Irrational Exuberance Triggers Chaos as China Watchdog Sidelined (BBG)
• China bounce ends five-day losing streak for stocks (Reuters)
• Fear Grows in Greece as Decisive Hour Nears (WSJ)
• Once Swarming with Greek Visitors, a Bulgarian Town Reels as Business Languishes (WSJ)
• Greece Shuts Markets Through July 13 as Officials Debate Bailout (BBG)
• Germany calls for European defence sector consolidation (Reuters)

The rescue of AIG should not serve as a source of comfort to investors.

"At the moment and in principle we see, as the chancellor said expressly in her press conference in Brussels, no occasion at all to discuss this issue - there is no leverage or basis for that," Martin Jaeger said at a news conference. "That refers to a haircut in the classic sense but I explicitly add we also take that to mean measures that aim to bring about a reduction in the cash value of debt - those are things that you hear in discussions under profiling, restructuring and similar things."

Call it "game theory" gone horribly "chaos theory."

The Greek prime minister who decisively and unexpectedly pushed for a referendum on the last weekend of June, "never expected to win Sunday's referendum on EMU bail-out terms, let alone to preside over a blazing national revolt against foreign control." He got just that, and in a landslide vote at that even though "he called the snap vote with the expectation - and intention - of losing it."

The President and German Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke by phone this morning about Greece. The leaders agreed it is in everyone's interest to reach a durable agreement that will allow Greece to resume reforms, return to growth, and achieve debt sustainability within the Eurozone. The leaders noted that their economic teams are monitoring the situation in Greece and remain in close contact.

It seems China better hurry up and a) enable HFT on Shanghai and Shenzhen bourses, and b) enable options trading directly...

Today's "final" Eurogroup meeting is yet another "last" chance for Greece to stay in the Euro according to Greek headlines. The meeeting begins in minutes, at 12:30pm CET/7:30am Eastern so expect the usual torrent of "Greek deal" headlines which send the S&P surging followed by prompt denials which the S&P algo soundly ignore. By now the game is quite familiar to everyone.

• Greece faces last chance to stay in euro as cash runs out (Reuters)
• Tsipras Begins Brussels Campaign to Keep Greece Inside the Euro (BBG)
• Greek Crisis Shows How Germany’s Power Polarizes Europe (WSJ)
• Eurogroup Head Dijsselbloem Calls for ‘Credible’ Greece Package (BBG)
• Europe Not Playing ‘Domino Theory’ Leaves Markets Calm on Greece (BBG)
• China stocks fall again despite support measures (Reuters)
• Chinese Trading Suspensions Freeze $1.4 Trillion of Shares Amid Rout (BBG)
• Crude Creeps Higher After Downturn (WSJ)

• Greece Bailout Referendum: They Voted ‘No’. Now What? (BBG)
• Varoufakis Quits as Greece Enters New Showdown With Europe (BBG)
• Merkel to Meet Hollande as Greece Told to Make Next Move (BBG)
• German line hardens after Greek referendum 'No' (Reuters)
• BOJ keeps rosy view of regional Japan, watching markets after Greek upset (Reuters)
• Oil falls on Greece vote, China stock market turmoil (Reuters)
• China Urges U.S.-Iran Compromise 36 Hours to Nuclear Deadline (BBG)
• U.S. and Iran: the unbearable awkwardness of defending your enemy (Reuters)

America is better off when President Obama is out on the stump bloviating and boasting rather than in Washington actively doing harm. But the whoppers he just told the students at the University of Wisconsin are beyond the pale. Said our spinmeister-in-chief: "And the unemployment rate is now down to 5.3 percent. (Applause.) Keep in mind, when I came into office it was hovering around 10 percent. All told, we’ve now seen 64 straight months of private sector job growth, which is a new record — (applause) — new record — 12.8 million new jobs all told." That’s a pack of context-free factoids.

"Though its existence was secret until last year, JTRIG quickly developed a distinctive profile in the public understanding, after documents from NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden revealed that the unit had engaged in “dirty tricks” like deploying sexual “honey traps” designed to discredit targets, launching denial-of-service attacks to shut down Internet chat rooms, pushing veiled propaganda onto social networks and generally warping discourse online."

"I believe there are two ways to give Greece Chinese aid. First, within the framework of the international aid through EU countries. Second, China could aid Greece directly. Especially considering the Silk Road Economic Belt and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. China has this ability," Fan Mingtao director of the Quantitative Finance Department at China's Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics told Sputnik China. It would be difficult to imagine a more fitting pilot program for the world’s newest supranational lender than a rescue package for the birthplace of Western democracy which has been brought to its knees by that most Western of all multilateral institutions, the IMF.

To understand today’s crises in Iraq, Syria, Iran, and elsewhere, one must grasp their shared Lebanese connection. This assertion may seem odd. After all, what is the big deal about Lebanon? That little country hasn’t had top headlines since Israel deigned to bomb and invade it in 2006. Yet, to a large extent, the roots of the bloody tangle now enmeshing the Middle East lie in Lebanon: or to be more precise, in the Lebanon policy of Israel.

America’s grand strategy, its long-term blueprint for advancing national interests and countering major adversaries, is in total disarray. Top officials lurch from crisis to crisis, improvising strategies as they go, but rarely pursuing a consistent set of policies. Some blame this indecisiveness on a lack of resolve at the White House, but the real reason lies deeper. It lurks in a disagreement among foreign policy elites over whether Russia or China constitutes America’s principal great-power adversary.