White House

There are now more than 100 FBI agents investigating Hillary Clinton. Her denial that she is at the core of their work is political claptrap with no connection to reality. It is inconceivable that the FBI would send such vast resources in the present dangerous era on a wild-goose chase. It is the consensus of many of us who monitor government behavior that the FBI will recommend indictment. If the FBI recommends indictment and the attorney general declines to do so, expect Saturday Night Massacre-like leaks of draft indictments, whistleblower revelations and litigation, and FBI resignations.

When markets begin a "bear" cycle, they can remain in an oversold condition for extended periods. There is an important 'truism' to remember - "Markets crash when they’re oversold."

Senior-level sources in numerous Middle Eastern governments have privately expressed bewilderment at recent and current U.S. government strategies and policies toward the region. But a closer examination of U.S. policies, now almost entirely dictated by the Obama White House, shows no cohesive national goals or policies exist, but rather an ad hoc set of actions and reactions, which are largely dictated either by ideological positions, ignorance, whim, or perceived expedience.

President Barack Obama’s final State of the Union address came up short of the facts on several topics. Obama apparently omitted part of his presidency in boasting of nearly 900,000 manufacturing jobs “in the past six years.” Over his entire time in office, manufacturing jobs have gone down by 230,000.

"Do you see what she's done to Germany? They have a problem. She went off the reservation. I don't know what happened to her. She was doing well."

• China trade surprise brings relief (Reuters)
• Obama knocks Trump, voices optimism (Reuters)
• Republican Candidates Criticize Obama’s State of the Union Address (WSJ)
• Republicans and Democrats Agree: We Hate Wall Street (WSJ)
• Oil rises for first time in eight sessions on China, U.S. stocks draw (Reuters)
• U.S. Exports First Freely Traded Oil in 40 Years (WSJ)
• China Imports Record Crude as Price Crash Accelerates Buying (BBG)

“Following technical and operational investigations and in interaction with relevant political and national security bodies of the country and after it became clear that the US combat vessels’ illegal entry into the Islamic Republic of Iran’s waters was the result of an unpurpuseful [sic] action and a mistake and after they extended an apology, the decision was made to release them."

As President Obama prepares to unleash his final State Of The Union speech, The White House has conveniently focused attention on the following six "success stories": The Economy (record low number of men in workforce), The Climate (too hot for retail, too cold for construction), Foreign Policy (bwuahahaha), Health Care (record number of Americans cutting back to afford medical costs), and Social Progress (record high racial tensions, police state, surveillance state,  and record low trust in government). But apart from that, Americans have The Kardashians, iGadgets, record levels of syphillis, and, of course, a record surge in national debt during any President's "reign."

Three weeks out from the Iowa caucuses, and clarity emerges. Hillary Clinton, the likely Democratic nominee, is in trouble. But if a cloud is forming over the Clinton campaign, the sun continues to shine on The Donald. What does the surge for socialist Sanders and the Republican base’s backing of the outsiders Trump and Cruz and collective recoil from the Republican establishment candidates tell us? As Dylan sang, "The times they are a changing."

With China now "murdering" Yuan shorts, markets are content that the Chinese debacle seems to be contained if only for a while, and so the attention of both traders and algos alike has focused on oil, which earlier in the session dragged global equities lower as it dropped by 3%, just shy of the $30 level, a new 11 year low, before staging another dramatic rebound in minutes, wiping out all losses in the aftermath of what appears to have been a deadly suicide bomber terrorist explosion on a square the middle of Istanbul's historic district.

The state of our nation under Obama has become more bureaucratic, more debt-ridden, more violent, more militarized, more fascist, more lawless, more invasive, more corrupt, more untrustworthy, more mired in war, and more unresponsive to the wishes and needs of the electorate. Most of all, the government, already diabolical and manipulative to the nth degree, has mastered the art of "do what I say and not what I do" hypocrisy.

While the President will do his best to put a positive spin on the current economic environment, and the success of his policies, when he gives his “State of the Union” address, it would be worth remembering whom he is actually addressing. It is also worth considering that much of this is likely the reason that Donald Trump is surging in Conservative polling. As with all things – it is the lens from which you view the world that defines what you see. For Wall Street, things could not be better. For Main Street, most everything could be better. The President has a lot of “convincing” to do if he expects to change voter’s attitudes between now and the 2016 Presidential election.

Late last month, amid heightened tensions between Washington and Tehran, Iran conducted a live-fire exercise in the Strait of Hormuz in close proximity to the USS Harry Truman, one of Ash Carter’s fleet of aircraft carriers. On Saturday, the US released a video of the incident.

• China turmoil sends oil, stocks sliding (Reuters)
• China's Stock Traders Go Home After 29 Minutes (BBG)
• Yuan hits weakest since Feb 2011 on fresh low midpoint (Reuters)
• Stocks Extend Rout, Oil Slides on China as Soros Warns of Crisis (BBG)
• China's 29 Minutes of Chaos: Stunned Brokers and a Race to Sell (BBG)
• North Korea Uses Bomb Test to Boost Dictatorship (WSJ)