White House

Well, we appear to be nearing a mini 'delay' deal of some sort. The agglomeration of headlines continues with Senate deals on and off, Biden proclaiming victory yet Senate Democrats are said not have consented (yet).

• *WHITE HOUSE SAID TO REACH BUDGET DEAL WITH REPUBLICANS
• *SENATE FISCAL CLIFF VOTE POSSIBLE BY 10:30 P.M.: REID SPOKESMAN
• *SENATE DEMOCRATS SAID NOT TO HAVE CONSENTED TO DEAL
  

State of the idiocy appears to be: The 2-month sequester delay: cuts would come half from defense & half-non-defense. 2 month window to give all sides time for bigger deal. No debt ceiling resolution. Tax rises for 400/450k, Cap Gains/Dividend up to 20%, small rise in estate tax and restrictions on personal tax deductions. Simple - as we have said for a while - assuming this passes seamlessly, this is nothing but a can-kicking delay to the 'extraordinary' debt ceiling date - two words - Stop.Gap. And in two months, it's not just the sequester but the debt ceiling too. Enjoy your night.

Update: U.S. Senate will attempt to vote on fiscal cliff Monday night, but still work to be done - Sen. Kyl. So the deal is done, but there is "hope" it passes. Should be good for another 10 ES points.

* * *

Everyone's worst nightmare has come true: the endless Greek bailout has now shifted to D.C., where deals are leaked, rumored, preannounced, and priced in, long before they are discovered to never have been there in the first place. The winners, as in Europe: hedge funds, and caterers. Everyone else is a bystanding loser.

With just 3 hours left in the trading day, why not up the stakes a little in the soap opera and take it straight to the star character:

• OBAMA MAKING STATEMENT ON BUDGET TALKS AT 1:30 P.M.

What will he disclose? Perhaps this, from the AP...

Just in case the stakes in the final episode of the 2012 season of the "Fiscal Cliff" soap opera, and a 30 second advertising block was not selling for a record amount, here comes the Pentagon with a warning that it may fire almost 1 million civillians their services will be required but unpaid if there is no Cliff deal. From the WSJ: "Mandatory federal spending cuts designed to be prohibitively drastic will become a reality on Wednesday if negotiators remain unable to reach an agreement to avert the reductions. Illustrating the gravity of the cuts, the Pentagon plans to notify 800,000 civilian employees that they could be forced to take several weeks of unpaid leave in 2013 if a deal isn't struck, and other agencies are likely to follow suit. The cuts, which members of both parties have referred to as a "meat ax," are the product of a hastily designed 2011 law that required $110 billion in annual spending reductions over nine years to reduce the deficit. Their severity, representing close to 10% of annually appropriated spending, was intended to force Democrats and Republicans to come together on a broader package of deficit-reduction measures, which would replace the cuts. That effort failed, raising the prospect of the cuts' taking place."

• Japan PM Abe wants to replace landmark war apology (Reuters) - to summarize Abe's strategy: crush the JPY even as China is alienated so much not a single Japanese export goes to Beijing. Brilliant
• Unthinkable Cuts Almost a Reality (WSJ)
• Signs of Negative Economic Impact Growing (WSJ)
• Carlyle Agrees to Buy Duff & Phelps for $665.5 Million (BBG)
• Greek retail sales slump deepens in October, recession bites (Reuters)
• Congress Dysfunction as Deadline Arrives Poses 2013 Risks (BBG)
• For Euro, All Eyes Are on Central Bank's Actions (WSJ)
• France Seeks New Path to High Tax (WSJ)
• Japan Rebuke to G-20 Nations May Signal Moves to Weaken Yen (BBG)
• Portugal braced for ‘fiscal earthquake’ (FT)
• Monti's reform path faces test beyond Italy elections (Reuters)
• South Korea’s Inflation Slows Even as Economy Gaining Momentum (WSJ)
• China factory sector strongest since May 2011 (Reuters)

Talks on the fiscal cliff have resumed, but as of this writing there is not yet an agreement. The current negotiations focus on the income threshold under which tax cuts should be extended, among other topics. As we have noted, the sides seem as far apart as ever, and as Goldman notes, while it is still possible that an agreement will be reached by year end, a retroactive deal in January looks more likely. The eventual resolution still looks likely to be a scaled down agreement that addresses only the policy changes scheduled for year-end and omits other issues, such as an increase in the debt limit or longer-term fiscal reforms. The greatest area of uncertainty is whether the spending cuts scheduled under the sequester will be addressed. The fiscal policy timeline below shows how we are rapidly approaching the more ominous debt ceiling debate and Goldman's Q&A asks and answers provides context for where we are from both an economic and ratings agency impact basis.

The second update of the day is here, and this one is far less jovial and optimistic than that coming from the seemingly quite cluless Lindsey Graham:

• REID SAYS HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO COME UP WITH COUNTEROFFER
• REID SAYS `WE'RE APART ON SOME PRETTY BIG ISSUES'
• REID SAYS `I WISH THEM WELL' REGARDING MCCONNELL-BIDEN TALKS
• MCCONNELL SAYS HE CALLED BIDEN TO TRY TO `JUMP START' TALKS

Nothing like the fate of the nation in the hands of Joe Biden, who may or may not still be laughing.

Looks like today everyone in Congress was short. Here's why:

OBAMA SAID NOT TO MAKE NEW OFFER IN FISCAL CLIFF TALKS
OBAMA OFFER DETAILED BY SOURCE FAMILIAR WITH WHITE HOUSE MTG
OBAMA SAID REITERATING PROPOSAL FROM LAST WEEK ON FISCAL CLIFF

So much for a deal, and so much for the invisible DJIA support at 13,000.

In a just aired Bloomberg TV interview, Senator Max Baucus provided the most succinct summation of the state of our nation now and for most of 2012, as well as the winningest trading strategy of the past year:

there is "a lot of hope and faith" in the 3pm White House Meeting.

Q.E.D.

Was it just yesterday that this efficient market rallied on Boehner's return and news that Obama will propose a scaled back Democratic Plan B (subsection ii, para (a))? Perhaps - or did we dream it? Anyway, stocks are beholden to nothing but the next flashing red headline and so - a 7 point ramp in the S&P 500 is warranted for no news whatsoever of any consequence:

• *OBAMA TO MEET WITH CONGRESS LEADERS AT WHITE HOUSE TODAY
• *OBAMA SAID TO PLAN OFFER OF SCALED-BACK BUDGET PACKAGE TODAY
• *OBAMA PLAN SAID TO AVERT SOME OF TAX AND SPENDING CHANGES

Apparently this is the message that popped up on the Congressional computer system when they were scheduling the last, last, last minute meeting before jumping over the cliff. The techies worked for hours I have heard but to no avail. What is interesting about this is that neither the computer geeks nor the people in charge of our government has any responsible position that is really useful to prevent the failure that is about to take place. The best that can even be hoped for now is some minor change in the rigging which may be heralded as “the fix to fix all fixes” but will be of little importance when considered in the light of day. I think the odds of any grand scheme that will honestly make a difference is equivalent to the value of a toe nail clipper when performing brain surgery.

We could say that news is actually relevant or matters in this "market" but we would be lying, just as we would be lying if we said that this market has not become so utterly predictable, with yesterday's late day market surge - on yet another ridiculous catalyst - visible from so far away, it was almost painful to watch it take place in real time. Sure enough, futures are now sliding back, and giving back much of yesterday's gains - but don't worry, in a day full of even more meetings and flashing red headlines, at least some combination of carefully phrased MSM words will set off today's algo-driven buying frenzy, guaranteeing yet another "retail investor" decides they have had it with this farcical "free market" casino for ever.

Just when you thought the seemingly endless rabbit hole of Wall Street-Washington corruption, cronyism, co-option, crime and kickbacks may have finally come to an end, here comes the House Ethic Committee to pronounce that no ethics breaches were found among House members in its investigation involving the scandal surrounding Countrywide "VIP loans" and the "Friends of Angelo." And in just doing so, the House effectively cleared itself of any wrongdoing and that's it, case closed - move along... Move along.

When the magic of Christmas, boiled down to just one number, got ugly.

Not surprisingly when wages and salaries are growing at a slower rate there is a corresponding weakness in the level of retail sales.  The peak in wages and salaries occurred in early 2011 with the subsequent growth rate trending weaker.  This corresponds with the economy which has continued to muddle along at a very anemic pace.  While it may be likely that the damage from Hurricane Sandy may have soured some sales, particularly in the North East, it is unlikely to have had much of an effect on the retail sales nation wide.   For majority of America the "fiscal cliff" debate largely goes unnoticed as it remains a battle between the White House and the "rich" - for the rest the country it is more of a distraction from the things that matter like "Honey Boo Boo" and "Housewives Of Whereever".   What does matter though, as stated above, are incomes.  The decline in incomes, which can be seen in the roughly 1.2 million person increase in food stamp participation from June to September, is why retail "holiday" spending is weaker.  With credit limits reduced, incomes stagnant and real costs of living on the rise - it is not surprising that retail sales are far weaker than the NRF's holiday season predictions.