White House

Remember when the hiring of former Wall Street insider and JP Morgan career man, Bill Daley, by the Obama administration as its latest Chief of Staff was big news last January? Well so much for that. The LA Times reports that the detente between Obama and Wall Street has reached new levels, with Daley's resignation expected to be announced at 3 pm by the president and is to be replaced by Citi's Jacob Lew, who in turn was the guy who oversaw the bank unit that "shorted the housing market." Well, at least Obama now knows to keep away from the JPM crew, whose Jamie Dimon is not all that happy with the president, if he wishes to avoid looking like not only the Wall Street's patsy, but also the guy who fails at sloppy seconds.

There is nothing more disgusting or detestable than a citizen informant.  Without citizen informants, tyrants could never retain the kind of power they wield.  In fact, without citizen informants, totalitarian movements would never gain traction.  This is why EVERY functional oligarchy throughout history has implemented programs designed to encourage the development of common spies, using the promise of monetary reward, or collective recognition.    Sadly, there are many in our society that would gladly sell out their closest friends and family to the tortures of authoritarian bureaucracy for nothing more than a firm pat on the head and a few fiat dollars.  If there was ever a more degraded lot of bottom feeding opportunist scum, the citizen informant is the very epitome.

Previously we heard Pimco's thoughts on the matter of an Iranian escalation with "Pimco's 4 "Iran Invasion" Oil Price Scenarios: From $140 To "Doomsday"", now it is the turn of SocGen's Michael Wittner to take a more nuanced approach adapting to the times, with an analysis of what happens under two scenarios - 1) a full blown EU embargo (which contrary to what some may think is coming far sooner than generally expected), and the logical aftermath: 2) a complete closure of the Straits. The forecast is as follows: 1) "Scenario 1: EU enacts a full ban on 0.6 Mb/d of imports of Iranian crude. In this scenario, we would expect Brent crude prices to surge into the $125-150 range." 2) "Scenario 2: Iran shuts down the Straits of Hormuz, disrupting 15 Mb/d of crude flows. In this scenario, we would expect Brent prices to spike into the $150-200 range for a limited time period." The consequences of even just scenario 1 is rather dramatic: while the adverse impact on the US economy will be substantial, it would be the debt-funded wealth transfer out of Europe into Saudi Arabia that would be the most notable aftermath. And if there is one thing an already austere Europe will be crippled by, is the price of a gallon of gas entering the double digits. And then there are the considerations of who benefits from an Iranian supply deterioration: because Europe's loss is someone else's gain. And with 1.5 million of the 2.4 Mb/d in output already going to Asia (China, India, Japan and South Korea) it is pretty clear that China will be more than glad to take away all the production that Europe decides it does not need (which would amount to just 0.8 Mb/d anyway).

Whatever their vitae, dreaming up a buddy relationship [built around Joe Biden] as solution to the troubled U.S.-China relations almost certainly ahead, is, indeed, preposterous. The little soap opera proves, were it not already self-evident, the “lessons” of the Cold War lie buried somewhere in the Library of Congress -- with no remnant at CIA, one surmises.

America may be $25 million away from breaching the interim debt ceiling, it may have well over 40 million people subsisting on food stamps, and we may be reading all about this "austerity" thing gripping the country, but it sure won't be impacting Federal workers, all millions and millions of them, if Obama has his way. According to Washington Post, the White House will propose a 0.5 percent pay increase for civilian federal employees as part of its 2013 budget proposal, according to two senior administration officials familiar with the plans." Well as long as the president is adamant about increasing taxes on what is left of America's upper middle class (and let's not forget that half of America pays no taxes at all) to pay for this, we see no way that this proposal will irritate the class-war divided United States even further. And yet we can't help but wonder: why a pay increased? Haven't we been brainwashed day after day how the only threat is deflation, that prices are not going up, that nobody actually needs food or gas, and that people should in fact be grateful for a pay cut?

Looking for a reason why the surge of BAC has been abruptly halted after hours? Look no further - as predicted earlier, when we commented on the periodic reincarnation of the always false global refi rumor which served among other things to push BAC higher by almost 10%, the rumor was found to be false... all over again. In other words no refi, no benefit to TBTF, and all of today's gains are based on what Bloomberg noted was a report issued yesterday by a Jaret Seiberg, who until recently was an employee of MF Global, and has since been acquired with his entire Washington Research Group by none other than Guggenheim partners, which just happens to be run by former Bear Stearns exec Alan Scwhartz. From Bloomberg, here is the official denial (which came literally seconds after market close):

• White House Has No Plan for Mass Home Refinancing, Person Says

Incidentally, even if the rumor was true, here is JMP explaining why it would have no real impact on Bank of America

When it comes to corruption, cronyism and general muppetry in Washington D.C., the only real question is 'where does one start?' Yet one has to start somewhere to conclude with a list of the ten most corrupt and despicable marionettes in D.C. Which is precisely what JudicialWatch has done in its annual compilation of the "Top 10 Most Corrupt Politicians in Washington D.C." for 2011. And confirming what everyone knows, that both the left and right are merely irrelevant names for the same general social affliction, or should we call it by its true name - wealth pillage - the split is even between democrats and republicans. In no particular order, the winners of 2011 are...

With two days left until the GOP primary circus is fully underway, here are, courtesy of Reuters, the key facts to keep in mind as all that endless talk finally shifts to action. From Reuters: "Voters kick off the 2012 nominating process to pick the Republican Party's challenger to Democratic President Barack Obama with the Iowa caucuses on Tuesday, followed by primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina on Jan. 10 and Jan. 21. The three contests are some of the most watched events in the election process. Here are a few facts about them."

The Solyndra-gate scandal, which the GOP realizes has the potential to shake the Obama administration to the very top, refuses to go away. Earlier today AP reported that to a republican Subpoena demanding all documents instead of just those selectively produced, "could trigger a claim of executive privilege by the Obama administration and elevate the political stakes. The loan is being investigated by two House committees, which have released Solyndra-related documents from federal agencies including the Energy and Treasury departments and the Office of Management and Budget." The White House has refused a request by the House Energy and Commerce Committee for all internal White House communications about Solyndra. White House Counsel Kathryn Ruemmler said the committee leaders' request has implications for "long-standing and significant institutional executive branch confidentiality interests." Naturally: it would be a big hit to the presidency's interests if it was uncovered that crony capitalist vigilante #1 himself is more than willing to distributed taxpayer capital to the highest bidder. So instead the The White House is ordering a review of loan guarantees made by the Energy Department after a California solar company that got a half-billion-dollar federal loan went bankrupt. There are more than two dozen of these to a variety of clean energy companies." And here is where the latest joke from this president jumps the shark: "[White House chief of staff] Daley said he's tapping a former Treasury official to conduct the review." A former Treasury official... of the Obama administration?

This can not be good news for a president already mired in 20% real unemployment and 98.9% Debt to GDP: “Nearly eight months into our investigation, documents provided to the Committee last Friday confirm those closest to the President - top advisors like Valerie Jarrett, Larry Summers, and Ron Klain - had direct involvement in the Solyndra mess.  In addition to the cast of West Wing characters with access to the Oval Office, documents reveal a startlingly cozy relationship between wealthy donors and the President’s confidantes, especially in matters related to Solyndra.  While the President claims ‘hindsight is always 20/20’ and the loan went ‘through the regular review process,’ the facts tell a much different story with some of the loudest alarm bells on Solyndra’s viability coming from within his very own administration.”  Next up: "please define the term 'crony venture capital taxpayer funded loan." Also, stories like this can not help.

Following a flood of demands for the head of Tim Geithner on a silver platter, the head of America's one-ply paper issuance and tax evasion department, has just told the White House he is doing the wrong thing (of course) and not going anywhere. "Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner, a central figure in the U.S. government’s bailouts of Wall Street banks and efforts to raise the debt limit, told President Barack Obama that he intends to remain in his job, according to a Treasury Department spokeswoman. “Secretary Geithner has let the president know that he plans to stay on in his position at Treasury,” Jenni LeCompte, assistant secretary for public affairs, said in a statement today in Washington. “He looks forward to the important work ahead on the challenges facing our great country.” Translation: goodbye foreseeable future. The only good thing is when the house of cards collapses (pretty soon at the going rate) Tiny Tim will be at the very top, and serve as the focal point of all accrued (if somewhat sharp, stainless steely and quite stabby) public "admiration."

McGraw-Hill: meet Chicago-style negotiations. And there, in one sentence, is all that is broken with this country. The reason for the beyond ridiculous horse trade, according to CNN: S&P analysis of U.S. revenue, deficit picture was questioned. Presumably S&P ignored to add the $10 quintillion dollars that were saved by America not declaring war on Tatooine and its most infamous Hutt resident: Larry Summers. Indeed, again according to CNN, S&P acknowledged some errors in its analysis. Isn't it amazing what being threatened with having your NRSRO license can do for motivation to double check your work, eh you pathetic sellouts? Who would have thought that last week's farce debt ceiling would continue and develop into a national pastime. Below, for the sake of S&P's non-existent conscience and incompetence, are their own guidelines for what constitutes an AAA-rated credit. Readers can decide if the US is one. In other news, in USSAAA, government downgrade rating agency.

To who expected an imminent departure by the one most incompetent man (after Larry Summers) and tax evading man in the current economic administration (that would be Tim Geithner) of course, we have bad news. He ain't going anywhere. In other words, the foreseeable future will be foreseeable for a long time. Politico's Ben Hill reports: "Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner is under intense pressure to remain at his post through President Obama’s re-election campaign next year but still may head out the door if a confirmable replacement can be found. The White House has made it clear it does not want to lose Geithner, the president’s chief economic advisor and trusted crisis consigliere. But the Treasury secretary has said he wants to return to New York this fall where his son is entering his last year of high school. He had hoped to leave after the debt ceiling drama ended and before bruising battles over tax, entitlement and housing reform resume in earnest this fall." Sorry to disappoint Tim. Which also means that Timmy will be at his rightful place when this whole house of cards finally implodes: at the very top. Lastly, it most certainly means that those who bought MF Global's bond issuance yesterday won't have to worry about springing rates for a long, long time if ever, because something tells us the one thing that could send this country formally over the edge is another former Goldman Sachs Treasury secretary.

Hot off the presses, here is the White House's very own "debt deal" fact sheet, which is apparently a "win for the economy and budget discipline." Which is great since we already know it is a win for the GOP and the Democrats. In other words, the only thing better than a Win-Win, is a Win-Win-Win... in which the only loser, of course, is America. We caution readers on high blood pressure medication, on blood thinners, those on dialysis, and those prone to incontinence or murderous acts of rage to please skip this post.

President Obama this Tuesday stated his case for increased taxes on “the rich” as part of his solution to balance the deficit. “Keep in mind,” he assured the American people, “that under a balanced approach, the 98% of Americans who make under $250,000 would see no tax increases at all.” I have a very basic question that I am not sure anyone has pressed Mr. Obama to answer: Where did this figure of 250k, north of which one is considered by him to be among “the rich” even come from? Its very roundness tells me that it was the result not of a detailed actuarial analysis but rather some sort of arbitrary caprice that only those completely isolated from any private sector experience can conjure up. I almost get the feeling it was something as off-hand as: “Hey 250k sounds right to me. Nice number. So whattya think?” Sure write it in there.