It's 12:01am, do you know where your government is?
*WHITE HOUSE BUDGET OFFICE DIRECTS AGENCIES TO BEGIN SHUTDOWN
*U.S. GOVERNMENT SHUTS DOWN FOR FIRST TIME IN 17 YEARS
The last government shutdown lasted 21 days, from December 1996 to January 1997, and cost the administration of US President Bill Clinton cost an estimated $2 billion, according to the White House’s Office of Management and Budget.
S&P Futures are 1677, 10Y yield 2.65%, WTI $101.96, Gold $1329.00 - let's see where we open tomorrow...
Full White House Statement below... and 10 ways the government shutdown could hurt America
Much confusion with just one hour left as Eric Cantor seeks to request a conference with the Senate. This is taking place even as the White House budget office will instruct agencies on a shutdown in under 30 minutes. And moments ago, Harry Reid said from the Senate that he would "not go to conference" until he gets a clean CR. So unless the House Republicans fold completely, as Democrats hope they will, the shutdown is assured. Live feed from Senate.
There is a considerable amount of debate in alternative economic circles as to whether a federal government shutdown would be a “good thing” or a “bad thing”. Sadly, a government shutdown is sizable threat to the American financial system, and few people seem to get it. Perhaps because the expectation is that any shutdown would only be a short term concern. And, this assumption might be correct. But, if a shutdown takes place, and, if “gridlock” continues for an extended period of time, We have little doubt that the U.S economy will experience renewed crisis. Here's why...
The irresponsibility of Congress and the rest of the political class cannot be understated. Underwriting this behavior is equivalent to the Fed providing a teenager with a bottle of whiskey and the keys to an automobile. In a context where the Fed could have done no harm by tapering, they instead created a huge moral hazard that will be exploited by politicians of all stripes.
European equities trade negatively as political tensions on both sides of the Atlantic dampens risk appetite and a lower than expected HSBC manufacturing PMI figure from China further weighs upon investor sentiment. In the US, government is on the precipice of the first shutdown since 1996 after House Republicans refused to pass a budget unless it involved a delay to Obama’s signature healthcare reforms. If the Republicans follow through with their threat a shutdown will occur at midnight tonight. As a result a fixed income in the US and core Europe benefit with investors wary of the immediate harm a shutdown will do to confidence in the economy.
With even the most compromising politicians on both sides of the aisle admitting at least a brief government shutdown is inevitable (and according to Stone McCarthy the shutdown will hardly be brief and will affect the timely release of such major economic indicators as construction spending, factory orders and the employment number on Friday), the next question arises: how have markets responded to not only shutdowns, but also debt ceiling impasse (with the memory of August 2011 still very vivid) in the past. Here is the full answer from Deutsche's Dominic Constam: "In a shutdown scenario, government agency-compiled economic data releases could be delayed, while essential services, such as Treasury auctions, interest and principal payments on Treasury securities will not be affected. Some federal workers could be furloughed. The most recent government shutdown occurred in late 1995 to early 1996, and lasted about three weeks. Payroll and retail sales data were delayed during that period."
With a government's October 1 shut down - temporary of course - now seemingly inevitable, and more importantly with the peak debt ceiling negotiations due in just about a week after which point the Treasury will run out of money, many wonder what comes next. That this is happening just two short years after the dramatic August 2011 debt ceiling impasse, when the market tumbled 20% and likely slowed economic growth is still fresh in everyone's mind, is hardly helping matters. Add a potential political crisis in Greece and Italy, and suddenly a whole lot of unexpected variables have to be "priced in."
On a rare Saturday session (now Sunday); in a not-too-surprising vote down party lines, the House has voted in favor of the continued-military-funding, medical-device-tax-repealing, Obamacare-delaying continuing resolution that keeps the government paid until December 15th...
*HOUSE PASSES 231-192 OBAMACARE DELAY IN U.S. SPENDING BILL
*HOUSE VOTES 423-0 TO FUND TROOPS IF GOVERNMENT SHUTS DOWN
Now it's off to the Senate and Harry Reid's 'over-my-dead-body' as the White House prepares for Government Shutdown.. (and/or veto) with little (or no) time to cobble together a last-minute deal.
The sausage-making continues... "stop the madness" urge Dem. Nita Lowey, but once the committee has agreed, it's off to the floor for what the White House calls:
"A vote for the Republican bill is a vote for Shutdown"
Despite the House's bill claiming it is to keep the government funded... It seems do as we say or else is the new normal White House policy as the fear-mongery grows.
UPDATE: The Bill is currently under debate on the floor - live webcast (Final votes are expected after 11pm ET.)
It appears investors (CDS markets, VIX, T-Bills anxiety) were on to something as each side in the looming government shutdown debate seems mired in their own belief that the other has more to lose. House Republicans are aiming to hold a vote today on a bill to extend government funding through December 15th and ensuring the military gets paid on any shutdown, but...
- HOUSE PLAN WOULD DELAY OBAMACARE ONE YEAR, LAWMAKER SAYS
And as the WSJ reports, Harry Reid has already stated that "we are going to accept nothing as it related to Obamacare," before adjourning the Senate until Monday afternoon (narrowing the gap for a shutdown-avoidance vote). The shutdown-blame-game has begun as it seems the ball is back in the Senate's court...
When back in February 2012 we first suggested (sarcastically) "A Modest Proposal To Boost US GDP By $852 Quadrillion: Build The Imperial Death Star" which as the title suggested, was a quick and easy way to boost US GDP by $852 quadrillion through 'building' the Imperial Death Star (on credit of course - remember: in modern finance, one's "growth" is only limited by how much debt they can issue), little did we know that this would promptly become a viral campaign which in early 2013 culminated with a White House petition to do just this thing. Unfortunately, since then things have devolved so much that science fiction is rapidly becoming the bedrock of both US fiscal and monetary policy. So as we continue to slide down the rabbit hole of insolvency, in a world of peak absurdity, it only makes sense to revisit some comparable, if smaller scale, ideas that may at least prevent another imminent middle east conflict false flag, seeking solely to boost the US economy. Presenting: space ships.
With President Obama now on closer talking terms with Iran's President Rouhani than the Republicans, we thought the "major geopolitical shift," that this is supposed to be should be offset with a glance at the 'known' nuclear facilities that Iran possesses as the White House proceeds along its "difficult" path to "resolution" - not not regime change...
Who's Who of Prominent Economists and Billionaire Investors Say that Runaway Inequality Harms the EconomySubmitted by George Washington on 09/27/2013 13:16 -0400
Free Market Libertarians and Progressives Agree that If All of the Poker Chips Are Concentrated In One Hand ... The Game Stops
If you want to live the high life, you don't have to become a rap star, a professional athlete or a Wall Street banker. All it really takes is winning an election. Right now, more than half of all the members of Congress are millionaires, and most of them leave "public service" far wealthier than when they entered it. Since most of them have so much money, you would think that they would be willing to do a little "belt-tightening" for the sake of the American people. After all, things are supposedly "extremely tight" in Washington D.C. right now. In fact, just the other day Nancy Pelosi insisted that there were "no more cuts to make" to the federal budget. But even as they claim that things are so tough right now, our politicians continue to live the high life at the expense of U.S. taxpayers.