Yesterday afternoon, we tweeted:
What time tomorrow do we get the hope rally? Odds are between 10:30 and 10:45. Rejection news naturally just after 4 pm
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 14, 2013
And on the back of a statement from the White House that Obama and Biden will meet with McConnell, Reid, Pelosi, and Boehner - but "will not pay ransom" - and with the T-Bill market police on vacation, equity markets are surging back towards green (removing once again any incentive to act).
In a world devoid for the past two weeks and certainly for foreseeable future of most US economic data (this week we get no CPI, Industrial Production and New Home Sales among others), markets are now reliant on China for an indication of how the economy is doing, which is why this weekend's weaker than expected Chinese exports (ignoring the fact that China trade data is largely made up) and higher than expected consumer price inflation (driven by higher vegetable prices), even as new yuan loans soared to CNY787 billion, well above the CNY675 billion estimate despite broader M2 slowing from 14.7% in August to 14.2% in September, means the Chinese economy is once again in a vice and following the summer's liquidity driven boost, is set to roll over. Which in turn means that once again the PBOC is flying blind: unable to inject more liquidity without risking broader inflation, while most indicators are already rolling over. In short, ugly and certainly rolling over Chinese economic indicators for the market to mull over on Columbus day, even though all this will be promptly forgotten once the Washington debt ceiling song and dance resumes and the now traditional 10:30 am surge grips the algotrons as the latest set of "imminent deal" rumors is unleashed.
We assume it is a coincidence that on the day in which we demonstrate China's relentless appetite for gold, driven by what we and many others believe is the country's desire to have a call option on a gold-backed reserve currency when the time comes, just posted in China's official press agency, Xinhua, is an op-ed by writer Liu Chang in which he decries the "US fiscal failure which warrants a de-Americanized world" and flatly states that the world should consider a new reserve currency "that is to be created to replace the dominant U.S. dollar, so that the international community could permanently stay away from the spillover of the intensifying domestic political turmoil in the United States." Of course, if China were serious, and if the world were to voluntarily engage in such a (r)evolutionary reserve currency transition, then all Magic Money Tree theories that the only thing better than near infinite debt is beyond infinite debt, would promptly be relegated to the historic dust heap of idiotic theories where they belong.
The "Million Vet March" in Washington D.C. appears to be escalating as reports of barricades being torn down, police in riot gear and snipers being deployed, and a growing crowd at The White House chanting for its shut-down suggest the people are growing restless.
Government spending has long been believed to have a multiplier effect in the economy. However, as the chart above shows, the reality is quite shocking. Each dollar in debt only increased GDP by roughly $0.15. In other words each $1 in government spending actually has a negative multiplier effect of 85% in the real economy. The leaders in Washington need to start focusing on the real issues at hand. While we toss around $100 billion here and there, as if it is left pocket change, the reality is that the rising debt levels will continue to drag on economic growth going forward. Of course, the continued shenanigans in Washington, inept leadership and lack of fiscal responsibility is why there is a continuing increase in the number of individuals who perceive the need for a third political party. Change was promised. Change is wanted. Change will happen. Unfortunately, history shows that REAL change, politically and otherwise, has only occurred under the worst possible conditions.
BREAKING: Senate rejects Democratic plan to extend debt ceiling through next year.
— The Associated Press (@AP) October 12, 2013
After a two-day, five hundred point Dow Jones rally on nothing but hope that just because politicians are talking, all shall be well, it was the weekend's turn, when the market is conveniently closed, for true Congressional colors to emerge. Sure enough, moments ago Boehner told GOP lawmakers that Obama has "rejected our deal", and that talks with the president have hit an impasse. The WSJ, whose recent poll in conjunction with NBC found Republican approval rating at an all time low (because if the debt ceiling slams shut, the machinery that funds both the "wealth effect" for the 0.01% and the 60 million on foodstamps and disability will cease: or in other words a bust for the ultra wealthy and poor, if not quite so bad for what's left of the middle class) reports that his comments, in a closed-door meeting with House Republicans, put renewed focus on a plan being developed by Senate Republicans to raise the U.S. debt ceiling and fully reopen the government. As we speculated, Obama, smelling blood, has decided to shut down the GOP on all their demands: "On Saturday, a House GOP aide said Mr. Obama had essentially rejected everything offered by House Republican leaders in their proposal." Which is hardly a negotiation. The question is will the GOP, having pushed the country so far, decide to back off now, and let Obama take all the spoils?
In a day driven higher by one after another "optimistic" headline, it was natural that any bad news would be reported just after the close. Which is why we expect the White House press secretary Carney to have saved any negative news for the just started press conference. Watch it live below.
The Treasury Department has warned that the continued failure by Congress to raise the debt ceiling would leave the United States unable to pay all of its bills and may force the country to default on its government bonds. Here are some helpful answers to the most common questions about the debt ceiling crisis...
TedBits - Newsletter
It would appear - in a similar vein to last night's White House exit - the stock market is a little disappointed that Democrats and Republicans did not come out holding hands. Instead, we get the usual maybe good, maybe bad statements:
- SENATOR ORRIN HATCH SAYS OBAMA EXPRESSED CONCERNS OVER DURATION OF HOUSE REPUBLICAN DEBT LIMIT PLAN (well that's 'bad' news for a deal), but
- *OBAMA DIDN'T REJECT MEDICAL DEVICE TAX REPEAL, HATCH SAYS (well that's good news for a deal)
For now the Dow is 30 points off its highs on this lack of news.
It would appear, judging by the market's response and the headlines, that Obama's "unconditional surrender or default" negiotiating tactic has worked... According to AP, the Republicans look to have folded once again:
- *HOUSE REPUBLICANS SAID TO OFFER PLAN ON SHUTDOWN, DEBT LIMIT
- *REPUBLICANS SAID TO SEEK TALKS ON REDUCING U.S. SPENDING
The House Republicans are apparently waiting to hear back from the White House on this latest proposal - which amounts to - our translation - "Ok, you can have your government re-opened, and we'll let you raise the debt ceiling... as long as you really really promise to talk about spending cuts at some point in the future maybe possible please."
Filed under "you can't make this shit up," in perhaps the most ironic thing to come out of DC, the Washington Times reports that the White House Gift Shop has gone broke. Long run by a nonprofit group that helps uniformed Secret Service officers and their families the official White House Gift Shop, lists more than $600,000 in liabilities in a pending bankruptcy petition in Washington. The bankruptcy petition, filed in June in a case that remains active, doesn’t explain why the fund went bankrupt in the first place, but court records reveal a recent history of tax troubles and litigation.
- Dot Com part deux: Investors are showing increasing hunger for initial public offerings of unprofitable technology companies (WSJ)
- Poll Finds GOP Blamed More for Shutdown (WSJ)
- House, Senate Republicans Offer Competing Plans on Debt-Limit, Government Shutdown (WAPO)
- Obama, Republicans aim to end crisis after meeting, hurdles remain (Reuters)
- US Rethinks How to Release Sensitive Economic Data (WSJ)
- Chinese East Oil Fuels Fresh China-US Tensions (WSJ)
- ECB Agrees on Swap Line With PBOC as Trade Increases (BBG)
- China September Auto Sales Surge 21% on Japanese Rebound (BBG)
- JPMorgan Taps Taxpayer-Backed Banks for Basel Rules (BBG)
Despite stock (not bond) euphoria yesterday that a DC debt ceiling deal was sealed leading to the second largest risk ramp of 2013, last night was spent diffusing the excitement as one after another politician talked back the success of a "non-deal" that Obama rejected, at least according to the NYT. As a result, with both retail sales data and the PPI not being released (and the only data of note the always leaked UMichigan consumer confidence) markets will again be at the behest of developments on Capitol Hill, with some talk from Republicans suggesting a deal as early as today could be possible in an effort to reopen government on Monday. It is entirely possible that talks could continue over the weekend though, which would ensure a gappy open to Asian markets on Monday.