Risk Management

Tyler Durden's picture

The Biggest Energy Trading Disaster In History





The simple fact is that trading involves risk. Bad risk management happens every day to individual traders who blow up their accounts with one overly aggressive or poorly managed position, and it occasionally happens to those paid to risk other people’s money as well. When it happens to the pros, though, the enormous access they have to leverage exaggerates the effects. n the energy markets, that leverage is ever present as most trading is done via futures contracts and other derivatives. As a result, some of the most spectacular blowups in trading history have involved energy.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

JPM Earnings Slide 8% On Drop In Trading Volume, Mortgage Production Offset By $1.5 Billion Stock Buyback





While JPM stock is trading modestly higher in the pre-market following its earnings report which beat expectations on the top and the bottom line, it doesn't hide a troubling trend seen across all the banks that have reported so far, one we forecast would take place in an environment of plunging trading volumes and near-record low mortgage production: slumping earnings. J.P. Morgan Chase JPM +0.88% & Co. said second-quarter earnings sank 7.9% as the bank continued to grapple with weak trading revenue. Indeed, as WSJ summarized, "J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. said second-quarter earnings sank 7.9% as the bank continued to grapple with weak trading revenue."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Espirito Santo: The Full Timeline





Remember when everyone ignored this story about Espirito Santo in May: "Portugal's Largest Bank "In Serious Financial Condition" Auditor Warns." Good times. Alas, one can only kick the can of Europe's banking sector insolvency so far before everything blows up in everyone''s face all over again and Draghi has to come out of his crypt and spook everyone that he will do "whatever it takes" to ignore reality and just pretend stuff is fixed which carries Europe over for a few more months before the whole charade has to be repeated.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

China In The Golden Age Of Central Bankers - "Whatever It Takes"





In a QE dominated world - in the Golden Age of the Central Banker - renminbi strengthening has been an unmitigated disaster. Chinese political stability depends on the actual production of actual things by actual people working in actual factories, and the prospects for that real economic growth are made significantly worse the longer the West persists in favoring financial asset inflation and the ossification of a low-growth status quo. While the West may be able to accept, even celebrate, unlimited private wealth – China cannot. Not if it wants to remain a politically unified Great Power. We think this is just the start of a multi-year weakening of the renminbi, a sea change in Chinese monetary policy that will inevitably create broad political tensions with the US and make Japan’s devaluation/inflation course infinitely more difficult to achieve.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Goldman's Yellen Spech Post Mortem: "Nothing To See Here, Move Along"





Goldman Sachs listened (and read) Janet Yellen's remarks at The IMF and see them "generally in line." Despite waffling on for minutes about risk management and monitoring, no one at The Fed has mentioned the total carnage in the repo market, spike in fails-to-deliver, and record reverse repo window-dressing that just occurred. The use of the term "reach for yield" twice and "bubble" 5 times, and admission that the Fed should never have popped the housing bubble, leaves us less sanguine than Goldman and wondering if this was Janet's subtle and nervous 'irrational exuberance" moment.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

5 Things To Ponder: Things Bulls Should Consider





Spend any time watching business media, and you could not help but notice the extreme amount of optimism about the financial markets. Despite weak economic data and geopolitical intrigue, the complacency and "bullishness" are at extreme levels. Considering that the markets have been primarily advancing on the back of continued flows of liquidity from the Federal Reserve combined with artificially suppressed interest rates; what do you think the impact on the financial markets will be? “Success breeds complacency. Complacency breeds failure. Only the paranoid survive.” - Andy Grove

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"Invest In Yourself, Not Wall Street"





Timing matters, as fundamentals have no impact in a euphoric blow-off top or in a panic-driven, bidless crash. It's possible to be right about the fundamentals and lose money trying to trade those fundamentals. It's also possible to be wrong about the fundamentals and make a boatload of money trading Central Planning interventions. Our own advice that we try to live is: "invest in yourself, not Wall Street."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Risk Analysis In The Golden Age Of The Central Banker





Because we are living in the Golden Age of Central Bankers, and that wreaks havoc on the fundamental nature of market expectations data....

  1. the VIX is not a reliable measure of market complacency.
  2. the wisdom of crowds is nonexistent.
  3. fundamental risk/reward calculations for directional exposure to any security are problematic on anything other than a VERY long time horizon.
  4. I’d rather be reactive and right in my portfolio than proactive and wrong.

The Golden Age of the Central Banker is a time for survivors, not heroes. And that’s the real moral of this story.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

More Signs Of Bullish Excess





Stocks have not "reached a permanently high plateau" nor will "this time be different." As with all late cycle bull markets, irrationality by investors in the financial markets is not new nor will it end any differently than it has in the past. However, it is also important to realize that these late cycle stages of bull markets can last longer, and become even more irrational, than logic would dictate. Understanding the bullish arguments is surely important, however, the risk to investors is not a continued rise in price, but the eventual reversion that will occur. Unfortunately, since most individuals are only told to consider the "bull case," they never see the "train coming."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: June 9





  • Attorneys Known for Large Civil Settlements Line Up to Sue GM Over Company's Handling of Defective Ignition Switches (WSJ)
  • Pakistani Taliban attack airport in Karachi, 27 dead (Reuters)
  • U.S. Official: Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl Has Declined to Speak to His Family (WSJ)
  • Ukraine Gas Talks Resume in Brussels to Avoid Cut-off This Week  (BBG)
  • China's Central Bank Flexes Muscle (WSJ)
  • China says Vietnam, Philippines' mingling on disputed isle a 'farce' (Reuters)
  • World Needs Record Saudi Oil Supply as OPEC Convenes (BBG)
  • Kraft Raises Prices on Maxwell House, Yuban U.S. Coffee Products (BBG)
  • United Continental: One Sick Bird (WSJ)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

GM Fires 15, Disciplines 5 After "Deeply Troubling" Report





Former U.S. Attorney Anton Valukas report on GM's SNAFU is proclaimed as "extremely thorough, brutally tough, and deeply troubling," by CEO Mary Barra; but finds no collusion or conspiracy to boost bottom line at the expense of customers' lives. However, the report did find "a pattern of incompetence" and actions must be taken...

  • *GM REPORT CONFIRMS BARRA DIDN'T KNOW OF ISSUE PRIOR TO RECALL
  • *BARRA SAYS 5 EMPLOYEES DISCIPLINED
  • *GM'S BARRA SAYS 15 REMOVED FROM CO FOLLOWING VALUKAS REPORT

Of course, none of this matters as easy credit is fueling the sale of more Kevorkianesque GM cars than ever before...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: May 27





  • Vietnam, China trade accusations after Vietnamese fishing boat sinks (Reuters)
  • SEC Set to Spur Exchange Trading (WSJ)
  • Bank of Japan quietly eyes stimulus exit (Reuters)
  • Japan Risks Low Growth Even as Easing Spurs Inflation (BBG)
  • Hello Japan: Bond Market Message to Fed: Your 4% Rate Outlook Is Too High (BBG)
  • Malaysia, UK firm release satellite data on missing MH370 flight (Reuters)
  • Fighting rages in eastern Ukraine city, dozens dead (Reuters)
  • Bad Credit No Problem as Balance-Sheet Bombs Rally 94%  (BBG)
  • Draghi’s Asset-Backed Drive Rouses Academic Skeptics (BBG)
  • For-Profit Colleges Face Test From State, Federal Officials (WSJ)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

JPMorgan Lied To Fed, Did Not Report Losing Trades Whistleblower Charges





Long before Virtu was forced to pull its IPO due to the backlash against HFT frontrunners in party due to being stupid enough to post its perfect trading record of 1 trading day loss in 5 years which could only be the result of a grossly rigged market, we pointed out that another entity, one having little in common with your garden variety HFT parasite, namely JPMorgan, had a 2013 trading record which could be summed up on one word only: perfection. Yet while one could simply attribute the same kind of market rigging to JPM as one can (and should) to the average hi-freak, it seems there may be more here than meets the eye so used to seeing manipulation everywhere it looks. According to Australia's Sydney Morning Herald, "a technical support person who worked for JP Morgan in Australia claims the bank regularly misled its New York parent and the US Federal Reserve by failing to report losing trades."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The (Other) Truth About The Financial Crisis: 10 "Geithner-Sized" Myths Exposed





After the crisis, many expected that the blameworthy would be punished or at the least be required to return their ill-gotten gains—but they weren’t, and they didn’t. Many thought that those who were injured would be made whole, but most weren’t. And many hoped that there would be a restoration of the financial safety rules to ensure that industry leaders could no longer gamble the equity of their firms to the point of ruin. This didn’t happen, but it’s not too late. It is useful, then, to identify the persistent myths about the causes of the financial crisis and the resulting Dodd-Frank reform legislation and related implementation...."Plenty of people saw it coming, and said so. The problem wasn’t seeing, it was listening."

 
GoldCore's picture

Global Gold Demand Steady Despite Indian Repression; PBOC "Elephant In Room" Ignored ... For Now





Another important caveat to the figures is the ‘elephant in the room’ that is demand from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). The PBOC does not declare their monetary gold purchases to the IMF or release the data. However, most market participants accept that they have and are quietly buying significant amounts of gold as part of their foreign exchange diversification programme and as part of their strategic goal to position the yuan as a rival global reserve currency ...

 
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