Risk Management

Hillary Clinton Is In Deep Trouble: "Hordes Of Wall Street Executives" Descend Upon Philly

We believe Hillary Clinton lost the Presidency this past week. While the explosive DNC leaks will undoubtably have a long lasting effect, this post will barely reference the leaks. Rather, it will explain how recent decisions by the Hillary campaign played right into Trump’s hands by essentially waving a gigantic middle finger to the 73% of Americans who think the country is headed in the wrong direction.

Morgan Stanley Beats Despite 9% Drop In Revenue, Helped By Cost-Cutting, Strong FICC; Shares Jump

Following the example set by the other banks, earlier today Morgan Stanley, the last big bank to report earnings,  said its profit fell 12% in Q2 on a 9% drop in revenue even as the company weathered volatile markets that affected its investing and corporate clients. The EPS of $0.75, however, beat sharply lowered expectations of $0.60 on the back of sharp cost-cutting measures, pushing its shares up 3% in the premarket.

'Elevator Down' Looms As Market Reaches 3-Standard Deviation Extreme

While prices are increasing, that increase in price is coming at the expense of declining volume, providing insight to the “conviction” of participants to the advance of the market. Stocks are incredibly vulnerable. Only 28 stocks in the S&P 500 (less than 6 percent of the index) are at new highs. Less than 72 percent of the stocks in the S&P 500 are even in uptrends.

Charting The Epic Collapse Of The World's Most Systemically Dangerous Bank

It’s been almost 10 years in the making, but the fate of one of Europe’s most important financial institutions appears to be sealed. But, if the deaths of Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns were quick and painless, the coming demise of Deutsche Bank has been long, drawn out, and painful.

"Deutsche Bank Poses The Greatest Risk To The Global Financial System": IMF

"Deutsche Bank appears to be the most important net contributor to systemic risks, followed by HSBC and Credit Suisse. The relative importance of Deutsche Bank underscores the importance of risk management, intense supervision of G-SIBs and the close monitoring of their cross-border exposures, as well as rapidly completing capacity to implement the new resolution regime."

August 15th - The Date Which Will Live In Monetary Infamy

August 15, 2016 will mark the 45th anniversary of President Nixon’s decision to close the gold window. U.S. citizens and the government are now beholden to the consequences of years of accumulated debt and weak productivity growth that have occurred since that day. Now, seven years after the end of the financial crisis and recession, these consequences are in plain sight. The Fed finds themselves crippled under an imprudent zero interest rate policy and unable to raise interest rates due to fear of stoking another crisis.

Goldman Sees A UK Recession, Shocked By A Fed "Tightening Cycle Unlike Any In Modern History"

Looking at the UK, Goldman says "we expect a recession – albeit mild by historical standards – in the first half of next year. The weaker outlook will also weigh on the inflation outlook. Meanwhile, back in the US, "our forecasted path for the funds rate now looks quite unlike any tightening cycle in modern Fed history—one increase, followed by an extended pause, followed by gradual but steady increases over the subsequent three years."

VIX Volume Explodes As "Markets Struggle To Believe Anything"

Amid turmoil in Chinese FX markets (which has not ended well in the past), the need to hedge against the looming Brexit vote, and rapidly fading confidence in the ability of The Fed, BoJ, ECB to save the world; it appears what was an ignorantly complacent market has suddenly shrugged off the denial (perhaps face-slapped by Yellen) and is buying protection (in the form of VIX ETNs) with both hands and feet. As Bloomberg's Richard Breslow so eloquently notes, "markets are struggling to believe in anything."

Theft Of Opportunity - The Impact Of Reg NMS On The Retail Investor

Regulation NMS made its first major impact with the introduction of “Payment For Order Flow”, which when paired with sub-penny pricing, is now directly responsible for birthing a new gold rush within the capital markets. The dawn of the High Frequency Trading (HFT) community we witness today. The result of this policy is an insurmountable, unequal, and unjust advantage for self-dealing BD’s and HFT’s, at the expense of the market’s retail level investors.

Stunning Emails Reveal How Clinton Foundation Donor Bought Seat As Hillary's Nuclear Weapons Advisor

A new trove of State Department emails reveal how a major Clinton Foundation donor - and HFT trader - was placed on a sensitive government intelligence advisory board even though he had no experience in the field. The emails further reveal how, after inquiries from ABC News, the Clinton staff sought to “protect the name” of the Secretary, “stall” the ABC News reporter and ultimately accept the resignation of the donor just two days later.

Futures Flat Following Friday's Jobs Fiasco: All Eyes On Yellen Again

Every ugly jobs report has a silver lining, and sure enough following Friday's disastrous jobs report, global mining and energy companies rallied alongside commodities after the jobs data crushed speculation the Fed would raise interest rates this month.  “The disappointing U.S. jobs report on Friday means that a summer Fed rate hike is off the table,” said Jens Pedersen, a commodities analyst at Danske Bank. “That has reversed the upwards trend in the dollar, supporting commodities on a broader basis. The market will look for confirmation in Yellen’s speech later today.”

That Didn't Take Long: Fed's Brainard Goes Full Dove One Week After Yellen's Hawkstravaganza

Last Friday, stocks soared as Yellen dropped hawkish hints that The Fed would raise rates "because it was appropriate" implying everything is awesome. One week later - following a terrible Fed-narrative-imploding jobs print - Hillary Clinton-donor and Fed member Lael Brainard goes back to full dove-tard: BRAINARD: U.S. JOBS IN MAY REPORT SUGGESTS LABOR MKT HAS SLOWED, SEES BENEFITS TO FED WAITING FOR ADDITIONAL DATA. Nothing would surprise us less to see stock go green today on this dovish news - just as they did last Friday on hawkish sentiment. If (Fed speaks) THEN (Buy).