Risk Management

Australia Central Bank Warns "High Debt Levels Are Affecting Household Spending"

"It is possible that continuing rises in indebtedness, partly as a result of low interest rates, increase the fragility of household balance sheets. If so, then at some point in the future, households having decided that they had borrowed too much, might cut back consumption sharply, hurting the overall economy."

A New Jacksonian Era? Part 1

There is no doubt Jackson and Trump have similarities in their confrontational natures, blunt talk and fiery tempers. It is fascinating how the intellectual elites of Jackson’s time had the same level of contempt for the common man as the arrogant ruling elite have for the “deplorables” inhabiting the towns and hamlets of flyover America today.

"Are You Ready For Greed?" Morgan Stanley Asks

"We think a scenario where retail investors, corporates and financials all get much more optimistic at the same time needs to be respected. As TABX cratered and credit markets wavered in early 2007, the S&P 500 went on to make new highs, not peaking until October. Greed is a powerful force. We are trying not to forget that."

The Market Wizard's Wizard - An Interview With Jack Schwager

"...someone with a great risk-adjusted return might have employed a strategy of selling way out-of-the money puts on equities since late 2008. That strategy would have produced great return/risk performance, almost like a money machine, but the trouble is that type of strategy also embeds a large tail risk. So even though the track record of this strategy would show low volatility, there would be the risk of catastrophic losses... Ironically, many strategies with low volatility are the most susceptible to event risk.

Trump & Yellen's Collision Course

Although the stock market is giddy from President Trump’s pro-growth policies, there is another constituent not quite so enamored with recent developments...the more Trump pushes on the fiscal accelerator, the harder the Fed will lean on the brake.

The Psychological Impact Of Loss

Despite all of the arm waving and pounding on the table by advisors touting long-term average returns, time-in-the-market, etc., the psychological impact of loss is all too real. While “buy and hold” investing has its appeal during bullish trending markets, the “impact of loss” on individuals is a far greater emotional pull. This is why investors tend to do everything backwards by “buying high” (greed) and “selling low” (fear).

Why Don't The Dollar And Bitcoin Drop To Their Tangible Value (Zero)?

If we refuse to recognize the high utility value of USD and its global ease of flow, then we will continue to misunderstand the demand for the dollar and its appreciation. Bitcoin is quite different from the USD but it, too, has unique characteristics that drive its demand and thus its valuation.

The Problem With Forecasts

Talk about conflicted. Just ask yourself WHY Wall Street spends BILLIONS of dollars each year in marketing and advertising trying to keep you invested at all times. Since optimism is what sells products, it is not surprising, as we head into 2017, to see Wall Street’s average expectation ratcheted up another 4.7% this year.