Risk Management

Tyler Durden's picture

"Buy High, Sell Low" - The Psychology Of Loss





The reality of loss will be more than most can stomach and sentiments of “time in the market” will go mostly unheeded. This is, of course, why many of the coveted millennial investors have already rejected much of the Wall Street rhetoric after watching the devastation that wrecked their parents over the last 15 years.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Fed Reveals Which "Developments To Financial Stability" It Is Most Worried About





Broad equity indexes have declined significantly since July 2015, and forward price-to-earnings ratios have fallen to a level closer to their averages of the past three decades.
Leverage [among speculative-grade and unrated firms] firms has risen to historical highs, especially among those in the oil industry, a development that points to somewhat elevated risks of distress for some business borrowers.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Race To Bottom Enters Final Lap: ECB Will Cut To -0.7% In June, JPM Predicts





We now expect the March package to include a larger deposit rate cut of 20bp, taking it to -0.5%
We now expect another package after that, possibly as early as June
We expect this second package to take the deposit rate to -0.7% and to extent QE until end-2017
Our forecast change is motivated by risk management amidst low inflation, rather than a macro forecast change

 
EconMatters's picture

Edge vs Risk Management (Video)





Some traders think having good risk management in place is an edge, but there is a distinction to be made here.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Maybe Albert’s Crazy Forecast Is Not That Crazy After All





"Albert Edwards sees the possibility of a 75% decline from the peak if all his fears were to manifest themselves. Now many view this as an incredible and somewhat outlandish forecast, yet it is not that unreasonable in our view.... These types of declines would leave indices down rough 60-65% from peak, and would send leverage ratios skyrocketing."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

What The Charts Say: "Now Is The Time To Worry"





“Let me be clear with you. YES, it is time to worry, and it may be time to worry a lot. ...something wicked this way comes.”

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Why You Should Question "Buy-And-Hold" Advice





Retail investors generally buy an off-the-shelf portfolio allocation model that is heavily weighted in equities under the illusion that over a long enough period of time they will somehow make money. Unfortunately, history has been a brutal teacher about the value of risk management.

 
Capitalist Exploits's picture

Risk Management Lessons From A Drunk Welshman





How many years ago a drunk Welshman at a local pub taught me some invaluable risk management lessons

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Next "Significant Risk For The S&P 500" - Kolanovic Reveals "The Macro Momentum Bubble"





"At this point we think that the negative feedback loop between market performance, volatility and the real economy (wealth effect) is becoming a significant risk for the S&P 500...  as some assets are near the top and others near the bottom of their historical ranges, we are obviously not experiencing an asset bubble of all risky assets, but rather a bubble in relative performance: we call it a Macro-Momentum bubble."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Equities Soar, Oil Back Over $30 On Hopes For More Stimulus Following Disturbing Chinese Data





Last night's Chinese data deluge can only be classified with one word: bad. So if bad news was again bad news as many claim, both commodities (read oil), and US equity futures should be tumbling right now... but just the opposite is happening and in fact both Brent and WTI have already jumped over $30 this morning. This happens even as the IEA said this morning that global oil markets could “drown in oversupply,”  And yet this morning both commodities, global stocks and futures soaring? Simple: the following Bloomberg headline summarizes it: "Brent Rallies More Than $1 as China GDP Spurs Stimulus Bets," and where Brent goes, so goes risk, and the S&P.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Post: 2016 - Year Of The 'Epocalypse'





As the towering forces that are prevailing against failing global economic architecture and the pit of debt beneath that structure, as laid out below, it is clear that the 'Epocalypse' - encompassing the roots "economic, epoch, collapse" and "apocalypse" - is here, and it is everywhere. The Great Collapse has already begun. What follows are the megatrends that will increasingly gang up in the first part of 2016 to stomp the deeply flawed global economy down into its own hole of debt.

 
Gold Standard Institute's picture

Open Letter to the Banks





Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan Chase
Brian T. Moynihan, Bank of America
Michael Corbat, Citigroup

I am writing to you to warn you about the disruption that is about to occur in banking.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Poker's 10 Most Valuable Investment Lessons





While most amateurs will bet on most hands, take speculative positions where the odds of success are stacked against them or try to bluff their way through a losing hand; professionals play with a cold, calculated and unemotional discipline. The professional gambler understands the odds of success of every play and measures his “bets” accordingly. He knows when to be “all in” and when to “fold and walk away.” Do they succeed all the time – of course not. However, by understanding how to limit losses they survive long enough to come out a winner over time.

 
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