The reality of loss will be more than most can stomach and sentiments of “time in the market” will go mostly unheeded. This is, of course, why many of the coveted millennial investors have already rejected much of the Wall Street rhetoric after watching the devastation that wrecked their parents over the last 15 years.
Broad equity indexes have declined significantly since July 2015, and forward price-to-earnings ratios have fallen to a level closer to their averages of the past three decades. Leverage [among speculative-grade and unrated firms] firms has risen to historical highs, especially among those in the oil industry, a development that points to somewhat elevated risks of distress for some business borrowers.
We now expect the March package to include a larger deposit rate cut of 20bp, taking it to -0.5% We now expect another package after that, possibly as early as June We expect this second package to take the deposit rate to -0.7% and to extent QE until end-2017 Our forecast change is motivated by risk management amidst low inflation, rather than a macro forecast change
"Albert Edwards sees the possibility of a 75% decline from the peak if all his fears were to manifest themselves. Now many view this as an incredible and somewhat outlandish forecast, yet it is not that unreasonable in our view.... These types of declines would leave indices down rough 60-65% from peak, and would send leverage ratios skyrocketing."
Retail investors generally buy an off-the-shelf portfolio allocation model that is heavily weighted in equities under the illusion that over a long enough period of time they will somehow make money. Unfortunately, history has been a brutal teacher about the value of risk management.
"At this point we think that the negative feedback loop between market performance, volatility and the real economy (wealth effect) is becoming a significant risk for the S&P 500... as some assets are near the top and others near the bottom of their historical ranges, we are obviously not experiencing an asset bubble of all risky assets, but rather a bubble in relative performance: we call it a Macro-Momentum bubble."
Last night's Chinese data deluge can only be classified with one word: bad. So if bad news was again bad news as many claim, both commodities (read oil), and US equity futures should be tumbling right now... but just the opposite is happening and in fact both Brent and WTI have already jumped over $30 this morning. This happens even as the IEA said this morning that global oil markets could “drown in oversupply,” And yet this morning both commodities, global stocks and futures soaring? Simple: the following Bloomberg headline summarizes it: "Brent Rallies More Than $1 as China GDP Spurs Stimulus Bets," and where Brent goes, so goes risk, and the S&P.
As the towering forces that are prevailing against failing global economic architecture and the pit of debt beneath that structure, as laid out below, it is clear that the 'Epocalypse' - encompassing the roots "economic, epoch, collapse" and "apocalypse" - is here, and it is everywhere. The Great Collapse has already begun. What follows are the megatrends that will increasingly gang up in the first part of 2016 to stomp the deeply flawed global economy down into its own hole of debt.
While most amateurs will bet on most hands, take speculative positions where the odds of success are stacked against them or try to bluff their way through a losing hand; professionals play with a cold, calculated and unemotional discipline. The professional gambler understands the odds of success of every play and measures his “bets” accordingly. He knows when to be “all in” and when to “fold and walk away.” Do they succeed all the time – of course not. However, by understanding how to limit losses they survive long enough to come out a winner over time.