Risk Management

Trading For A Living

"...you have a choice to make. If you treat trading as a hobby... remember hobbies cost money... If you want to make money in the market then you need to make the commitment to trade with a professional mindset...the hobbiest has doesn't have much of a chance to make money."

3 Things: Distortions, Earnings Missed, You're Crazy

"While you may be invested in an ‘index,’ when the next bear market correction begins, and the pain of loss becomes large enough, ‘passive indexing’ will turn into ‘active panic.’ Sure, you can hang on. But there will be a point where your conviction will eventually be broken. It is just a function of how much loss it takes to get there."

5 Negative Factors For Oil Prices

With the value of crude oil price forecasting firmly established (as practically worthless), we will continue to monitor the global crude oil market to assess how events and trends will be impacting the crude oil price. At present we are bearish for crude oil, as we believe the following factors will be driving the oil prices in the short to medium term.

Prepare For The Unthinkable

Over the last 40 years, the deception of funny money and rapid credit creation is what kept the illusion of growth and prosperity alive.  But over the last 8 years that illusion has been shattered by the following realities: Oceans of red ink, an over indebted economy, a debauched currency, a debased culture, a despoiled political process, criminal leaders, budding civil unrest, and much, much more. Welcome to France circa 1788.  The unthinkable is about to happen.

 

Sterling Tumbles To 31 Year Low Pushing The FTSE100 Near All Time High; US Futures Flat

Sterling dropped to its weakest since 1985, hit by a growing sense that the UK may be heading for a 'hard' Brexit in which it cuts links to the EU's single market in favor of total control over immigration. The dollar strengthened, the Nikkei225 rose as the Yen fell,  stocks in Europe rallied while US equity futures were fractionally in the green.

Deutsche Bank Charged By Italy For Market Manipulation, Creating False Accounts

One day after Deutsche Bank stock soared from all time lows, on the back of what so far appears to have been a fabricated report sourced by AFP which relied on Twitter to "inform it" that the DOJ would reduce its RMBS settlement with the German Lender, today Bloomberg reported that Deutsche Bank and six of its managers were charged in Milan for colluding to falsify the accounts of Italy’s third-biggest bank and manipulate the market.

Deutsche Denial Tsunami Begins: Draghi "Not ECB Fault", IMF "Solid Base"

It is becoming very clear that the Deutsche Bank debacle is getting very serious. How do we know? Simple - everyone is denying everything. Overnight DB CEO Cryan denied any need to raise capital or need a bailout; this morning ECB's Draghi denied low rates were responsible, and denied The IMF's statement the bank is systemically important; and now IMF's Lagarde is denying any need for government intervention.

Is This Why Deutsche Bank Is Crashing (Again)?

Deutsche's dead-bank-bounce is over. The last few days have seen shares of the 'most systemically dangerous bank in the world' plunge almost 20%, back to record lows as the DoJ fine demands reawoken reality that the €42 trillion-dollar-derivative-book bank is severely under-capitalized no matter how you spin asset values. However, another question looms - Is Deutsche Bank cooking its derivatives book to hide huge losses...