Boeing

• The Citadel-SAC connection (BBG) - just wait until the Citadel-FRBNY connection emerges
• Letter backs Yellen for Federal Reserve role (FT) - or said otherwise, the Democrats would like the Fed to rule (and monetize deficits) for ever
• Obama, Republicans gear up for bruising U.S. budget fight (Reuters)
• Up for Debate at Fed: A Sharper Easy-Money Message (WSJ)
• UBS to Pay $885 Million to Settle U.S. Mortgage Suit (BBG), Banks shiver as UBS swallows $885 million U.S. fine (Reuters)
• Japan finmin Aso: CPI shows gradual shift to inflation from deflation (Reuters)
• Japan's PM calls for high-level talks with China (Reuters)
• Holder Targets Texas in New Voting-Rights Push (WSJ)
• Another Nightmareliner incident: Probe opened as Air India Boeing Dreamliner oven overheats midair (Reuters)
• Samsung Boosts Capital Spending as High-End Phone Demand Slows (BBG)

One look at the June headline Durable Goods number today would have been enough to send algos into a buying spasm: printing at 4.2% it was three times greater than the forecast 1.4%, and followed an upward revised 5.2% (previously 3.6%). However, as always, there was a footnote: the entire Durable goods number was due to one thing: Boeing aircraft orders and other transportation equipment which have risen by a whopping $20 billion in the past two months, from $67 to $87 billion, or growth rates of 14.8% and 12.8%. Put another way, of the $21 billion increase in overall Durable Goods since April (from $223 billion to $244 billion), $20 billion is due to transportation equipment (from $67 billion to $87 billion). Sure enough, the June Durable Goods order ex-transports missed expectations of a 0.5% increase and was flat compared to May.

At precisely 4 am Eastern two opposite things happened: the German IFO Business Climate for July printed at a better than expected 106.2 vs 105.9 in June and higher than the 106.1 consensus: news which would have been EURUSD positive. And yet the EUR tumbled. Why? Because at the same time the ECB provided an update to the chart that "keeps Mario Draghi up at night" as we reminded readers yesterday - the ECB's all important credit creation update in the form of the M3, which not only missed expectations (of +3%) but declined from 2.9% to 2.3%. But more importantly, ECB lending to private sector shrank for the 14th consecutive month in June, and slid to a new record low 1.6% in June, down from a 1.1% in May.

Plunging Chinese manufacturing and an 11 month low PMI got you down? Don't worry: there's a Europe for that, which overnight reported that manufacturing and service PMI in Germany and, don't laugh, France soared far above expectations (German Mfg and Services PMIs of 50.3 and 52.5, up from 48.6 and 50.4, and above expectations of 49.2 and 50.8; French Mfg and Services PMIs of 48.3 and 49.8, up from 47.2 and 48.4 and an 11 and 17 month high, respectively, blowing away expectations of 47.6 and 48.8). The result was a composite Eurozone Manufacturing PMI of 50.1, above 50 for the first time since February of 2012, up from 48.8 and at a 24 month high - reporting the largest monthly increase in output sunce June 2011, as well as a composite Services PMI of 49.6, up from 48.3, and an 18 month high. In other words, European Composite PMI is expanding (above 50) for the first time since January 2012.

BREAKING PHOTO: Wheels just came off a Southwest flight at LaGuardia Airport - @BobbyAbtahi pic.twitter.com/j1coXlxuSU

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) July 22, 2013

Overview of the investment climate.  

• Detroit ‘Gut Kick’ Poses New Test for Long Suffering City (BBG)
• Florida lawmakers urge overhaul of 'Stand Your Ground' law (Reuters)
• Investors pour huge sums into US equity funds (FT)
• Snowden Standoff Threatens Obama-Putin Moscow Summit (BBG)
• China, U.S. companies' great hope, now a drag (Reuters)
• Morgan Stanley stock traders rebuild burned bridges (Reuters)
• Huawei spied for China, claims ex-CIA head Michael Hayden (FT)
• Gorilla Flipping Homes as Rebound Revives Rapid Trades (BBG)
• BRICS joint action at G20 summit may be wishful thinking (Reuters)

The UK's Aviation regulator has found that Honeywell's emergency locator beacon was responsible for the fire in the Ethiopian Airlines 787 at Heathrow last week. The AAIB is calling for the disabling of the ELT from all 787s and a review of the use of lithium ELTs on all other plane models. While this might, at first, seem like a negative for the stock price of Honeywell (and indeed was), given the surreality in which we live, it did not take long for the price of HON shares to not only rebound but to rally above where they were when the news hit. What could possibly go wrong?

Thank to Boeing's 'recovery' - since there was no fire today - the Dow gained 20 points (of which 29 points were Boeing). The S&P managed new closing all-time highs on the lowest non-holiday volume day of the year. Bonds were well bid early in following the bad-is-better retail sales print (-7bps from early high yields). Commodities were leaking lower into the early macro data but as soon as it was confirmed that the US consumer is tapped out - gold, silver, copper, and WTI all started to surge higher. Homebuilders notably underperformed, Utilities significantly outperformed with the rest treading water. Early USD strength (on ripping JPY weakness) was removed rapidly following the 'yes, the US economy is dismal' confirming data and the slide continued all day - leaving the USD practically unchanged by the close. This is the 14th up-day in a row for the Nasdaq (longest streak since May 1990), the Russell is over 15% above its 200DMA (a multi-year record), and volume has cratered in the last 14 days.

• An actual Bloomberg headline: Granny’s Gold Bars Are Key to Vietnam Push to Boost Dong (BBG)
• Gay delivers further body blow to troubled sport (Reuters)
• China Wealth Eludes Foreigners as Stocks Earn 1% in 20 Years (BBG)
• Bernanke Boom Signaled by Yield Surge as Market Recalculates (BBG)
• Portugal's Parties Set Deadline for Pact (WSJ)
• Corporate Spending Set to Surge in U.S. (BBG)... or not at all based on the actual corporate data
• Legal Fears Slowed Aid to Syrian Rebels (WSJ)
• A mega-camp adds to the Boy Scouts’ troubles (Reuters)
• GSK accused of being ‘ringleader’ in China probe (FT)
• 19 Hospitalized in US-Ukraine Army Exercise - Ministry (RIA)
• Egypt Islamists march as senior U.S. official visits (Reuters)
• German spies made use of U.S. surveillance data (Reuters)

In the aftermath of the latest humiliation for Boeing, which after getting Dreamliner clearance by absolutely every "authority" imaginable, from the NTSB to the FAA to CNBC's Phil LeBeau, that it was absolutely safe to fry, pardon, fly, just had a major meltdown, oops there we go again, on live TV in Heathrow airport, one wonders - what happens when the regulators rush to give the all clear once more, only for yet another Dreamliner to mysteriously burst in flames several months hence? Alas that would mean that the very same regulators that lifted the fry, pardon, fly ban on the plane will have to impose it all over again, thus disgracing their pre-clearance methods (likely accelerated courtesy of an occasional envelope full of cash under the door somewhere in the decision chain) even more. And how long until the damage to the brand is so great that Boeing will have no choice but to replace every 8 in its 787 nomenclature with a 9, thus pulling the brilliant GMAC->Ally Bank conversion. All these are questions that Boeing, the FAA and the NTSB will have to answer very soon, and for the benefit of BA shareholders, with a favorable resolution. Then again, in the matter of recalls, be it of cars or airplanes, the math is well-known. In the meantime, here is the latest.

Even with duelling Fed members today (Bullard vs Plosser) the message from 'the man' led markets on a one-way street all week. Even though Boeing impacted the Dow (and Trannies):

• S&P managed its best week in 6 months (+2.6%);
• Gold's best week in almost 8 months (+5.1% or $62);
• Treasuries' best week in 13 months (10Y -14.5bps);
  
• High Yield bonds best week in 20 months (+3%); and the
• USD's equal worst week in 21 months (-1.8%).

VIX remains modestly bid and IG credit spreads are underperforming. Market breadth today was weak as S&P volume was very low and the intraday range the lowest in 5 months. The 330ET Ramp was 10 minutes late but just as effective in its goal of running stops to a green Dow as Bullard's words seemed magical.

Thanks to some algo-based low-volume jiggery-pokery Boeing's stock managed to bounce off its 50DMA and get back up to VWAP (surprise). In the meantime, the overall volume has exploded to its highest since December 1998 - when Boeing was under a probe from Europe for price-collusion with Airbus (likely will be highest ever). The Dow recovered on this bounce too - until it was confirmed that a second Boeing 787 issue was confirmed by Thomson Airways in the UK.

One wonders: is bringing a full-sized fire extinguisher on your next Dreamliner trip allowed by the TSA, or is there a 100 mL size limit?

*SNCF CHAIRMAN SAYS TRAIN IN CRASH HAD ABOUT 370 PASSENGERS
*SNCF CHAIRMAN PEPY SAYS TRAIN CARS 3, 4, FIRST DERAILED

UPDATE: Boeing stock now down over 6% from pre-news, testing 50DMA

First it was imploding peripheral bond markets, now Europe is closing off the weak with even worse news, following reports of a burning Ethiopian Airlines 787 Dreamliner in Heathrow as well as news of a commuter train crash in Paris with numerous trapped and 8 dead according to Parisien. Boeing stock getting monkeyhammered on this latest ongoing fiasco, which for Boeing's sake better not involve the Lithium batteries...