Evercore

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Mega M&A Is Back: Abbott Buys St. Jude Medical For $25 Billion, 37% Premium





The great megadeal M&A drought of 2016 just came to an end when moments ago Abbott announced it would acquire St. Jude Medical for $25 billion, roughly a 37% premium to St. Jude's Wednesday closing price. According to the press release, under the agreement, St. Jude Medical shareholders will receive $46.75 in cash and 0.8708 shares of Abbott common stock, representing total consideration of approximately $85 per share. At an Abbott stock price of $43.93(2), this represents a total transaction equity value of $25 billion.

 
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A "Massive" New Headache For Banks Has Emerged





It's not just the shale drillers who are in danger as they see their liquidity evaporate. As the WSJ writes today, and as covered here since January, it is the lenders themselves whose unfunded revolver exposure may suddenly become funded and expose them to even greater risks from the energy sector should oil not rebound far more forcefully and put US oil and gas companies back in the black. How big is the exposure? Very big: $147 billion.

 
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Is The Allergan-Pfizer Deal Over? What Wall Street Thinks





Yesterday's stunning announcement by the US Treasury, which released a report titled  "Treasury Announces Additional Action to Curb Inversions, Address Earnings Stripping", and which was clearly aimed at ending not only all tax inversions, but the biggest pharma M&A deal in history, Pfizer's tax-inverting takeover of Allergan (pardon Actavis) hit AGN like a ton of bricks, sending the stock crashing 20%.  But is the deal over? Here are some Wall Street opinions.

 
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Q1 Slams Hedgies 'Most Popular Trade' - Momo Crashes Most Since 2009





In mid-February, we warned of the looming carnage for equity market-neutral funds, and sure enough, as Bloomberg reports, one of the most popular (and successful) hedge fund trades - playing the difference between high- and low-momentum stocks - crashed by the most since 2009 in Q1. After 6 years of almost unstoppable gains, equity market-neutral funds suffered their biggest losses since 2012 - comparable to the 2007 quant crisis devastation - as weak momo stocks massively outpeformed crushing the hedgies' models.

 
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Fed's Flip-flopping Causes Technicians To Lose The Plot





" I would only add that even if one were Bullish at this point, which is perfectly reasonable (not my call, but reasonable), that with almost 94% of stocks above their 50 day ma while volatility, currencies and inflation expectations have surged into levels which coincided with prior inflection points across the risk spectrum, a consolidative pause and pullback remains on the table. 2077-2086 stop."

 
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Crushed By The Record Oil Squeeze, This Is How Energy Bears Are Shorting Crude Now





The result of the recent mega short squeeze in oil, has been a significant revulsion to shorting oil directly or indirectly, either by way of the underlying commodity or energy stocks, many of which have soared in tandem. And yet the shorts remain, and continue to press their bets on the troubled energy sector. However, instead of directly shorting crude and various first-derivative oil and gas companies, short sellers - burned by the recent squeeze - have changed their strategy and shifted their sights to secondary exposure, namely those regional banks that do business with the industry.

 
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Sell In March And Go Away? There's Something About April During Election Years





"We transition from the best 6 month stretch for the S&P since 1950 into the worst 6 month stretch which commences in May. Moreover, while April has been the best month for the Dow over the past 65 years (+2.0%) during Presidential Election Year's April falls from a 1 seed to an 11 seed with an average loss of .9% according to the Stock Trader's Almanac"

 
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One Of The Most Accurate Forecasters Of 2016: "S&P Is The Most Overbought Since 2009: Sell!"





"The US market is extremely overbought, and from a cyclical standpoint the SPX is trading in the time window of our late March/early April top projection. In this context, we see the US market vulnerable for a significant reversal this week, which we would see as the beginning of a tactical top building process and subsequent correction into deeper/later Q2."

 
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Valeant Throws Its Former CFO Under The Bus; Accuses Him Of Cooking The Books After Coming Over From Goldman Sachs





Back in October, we tried to "tie the Valeant roll-up together by presenting The Goldman "Missing Link" in which we showed that Howard Schiller, Valeant's CFO from December 2011 to June 2015, previously ran Goldman Sachs’ health-care practice until 2009, when he became the chief operating officer of Goldman’s investment bank. The next year, the bank advised Valeant on its breakout purchase of Biovail Corp. Today, as part of its stunning announcement earlier today, the company - in looking for easy scapegoats - also threw its former CFO under the bus and accused him of cooking the books.

 
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All The Latest Chinese News In Just 7 Bullets





(1) Incoming Jan-Feb data still choppy; (2) Our Synthetic Growth Index (SGI) likely down for Jan and Feb, after up Sep-Dec; (3) As China slows, no problem is too small for a new policy fix; (4) Housing: too many vacant units, in the wrong places, wrong size and wrong price.; (5) SOEs:  excess capacity, old, inefficient in most key China industries. (6) Equities:  recent rally welcome but markets still broken just when more equity financing is needed. (7) NPLs: from past bad decisions, rising sharply. 

 
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Why Two Prominent Bears Refuse To Throw In The Towel And Buy The Rally





"We are sellers into strength as Feb despair on 4C's (China, Commodities, Credit, Consumer) flips to March/April euphoria; today's new all-time highs for defensive DJTNCG (personal & household goods) index + violent EM bear market rally in EM = uber-barbell of best of breed assets & junk assets best method for H1 outperformance; higher bank stocks & bond yields required to sustain broader risk rally."

 
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"I'm Out" - Bulls Dropping Like Flies After Evercore Says Tactical Bull Is Over, "Buy Gold"





"My Bullish tactical call is over. While we have repeatedly highlighted 2030 as our upside target, the rapid post ECB reversals in the cross asset technicals dictates that we abandon our tactical view at this time in favor of a far more defensive posture. Our structural Bear Market call with downside to 1,670 remains intact. We would sell Global Equities and Commodity Currencies on the back of recent countertrend strength and buy Gold."

 
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Hey St. Louis Fed, See How The Bank Of Japan's Assets Are Growing?





"What’s scary about this huge balance sheet expansion, is that it’s not having a bigger impact (although we don’t have a counterfactual). Indeed, the Nikkei is down -11% ytd and the yen has strengthened +6%."

 
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Catch Up On The Latest Chinese News With These Seven Bullets





With China offline for the next 7 days as its celebrates its Lunar New Year, here are 7 bullets from Evercore ISI to get everyone up to speed on the latest developments in the world's most troubled growth economy.

 
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The Market Stubbornly Refuses To Believe A Crash May Be Coming: Here's Why





The fabric of the market is showing signs of fracturing, as 9 years of declining policy rates and 6 years of QEs failed to kick-off growth, while, as Fasanara Capital's Francesco Filia notes, further easing has a visibly decreasing marginal effectiveness. It is end-of-cycle-type policymaking and market responsiveness and while some markets and sentiment reflect the concerns of a tail-risk-like collapse, stocks remain dissonant in the medium-term to the ongoing rioting against monetary activism and market manipulation by global Central Banks.

 
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