Renaissance

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Nigeria Currency Devaluation Looms As FX Forwards Crash To Record Lows





Despite US equity investors' exuberance over bouncing crude oil prices, the world's crude producers continue to suffer and while Venezuela is in the headlines every day (having already collapsed into chaos), Nigeria appears the nearest to that abyss next. Having urged investors "don't panic" last year, and seeing dollar reserves drying up rapidly earlier this year, recent "lies" about the nation's statistics have raised fears of a looming devaluation as FX forwards have crashed to 291 Naira to the dollar (current peg is 199).

 
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The Case For Brexit





"I don’t see Brexit as a panacea, but merely the chance to manage one’s own affairs and to conduct one’s own debates over what should or should not be done by the state in one’s name...In Britain’s case, the change would inevitably give rise to economic winners and losers and it may easily be imagined to involve some additional, net short-term expense of time and effort as the country moves to adapt. But to pretend, for example, that Europe will maliciously shut out UK exports or discourage the tourists and holiday-homers from visiting in their droves and so risk a devastating retaliation from its biggest source of external income is worse than a joke."

 
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Falling Chinese Demand Could Intensify The Oil War





The days of global reliance on Chinese demand are soon coming to end as seen by the decline in growth rate, decline in imports, and increase in service sector strength. The implications have already been great as stock markets across the developed world fell into peril when China's GDP growth rate fell below 7 percent. Withdrawal symptoms may last for a while until a recovery in demand alleviates some pressure. But global financial markets will have to adjust to a developed China, and as this "new normal" sets in, it will mean softer demand for commodities. China’s slowing demand for oil will lead to heightened competition for suppliers. For now, it appears that OPEC’s loss is Russia’s gain.

 
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Hedge Fund Billionaire Spends $13 Million Supporing Ted Cruz, Then Immediately Flips To Hillary Clinton





Simons, a string theory expert and former cold war codebreaker, has made an estimated $15.5bn from Renaissance Technologies the mathematics-driven “quant” hedge fund he set up 34 years ago. The fund, which is run from the tiny Long Island village of Setauket where Simons owns a huge beachfront compound, has donated $13m to Cruz’s failed campaign. With Cruz out of the race, Renaissance has switched donations to Hillary Clinton, with more than $2m donated so far.

 
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Additional Evidence Emerges That US Officials Intentionally Whitewashed Saudi Role In 9/11





It’s impossible to read the below and not conclude that senior U.S. government officials were, and continue to be, more interested in protecting their Saudi “allies” than providing justice for the thousands of innocents killed on 9/11. It should make everyone infinitely more distrustful of our crooked government. If that’s all the “28 pages” drama achieves, we’d call that a success.

 
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It's Now Almost Impossible To Save For Retirement





Zero (or negative) interest rates around the world have practically destroyed any reasonable expectation of savings. Simply put, saving money guarantees that you will lose after adjusting for inflation, at a time when the US government’s finances have never been more precarious. Crazy. Buying ‘risk free’ bonds, dumping money in a mutual fund, and waiting for the government pension to kick in just won’t produce the results that it used to.

 
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The Canary In Canada's Real Estate Mine Just Died: Toronto's Urbancorp Files For Bankruptcy





With the Urbancorp bankruptcy filing, and the first official canary death in Canada's real estate "coal mine", we anticipate that the near future for Canada's real estate sector will be a far more volatile one. Excluding Vancouver of course: that particular Chinese money laundering hub will continue humming until the locals finally decide they have had enough of having their city sold to criminal Chinese oligarchs.

 
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Why All Central Planning Is Doomed To Fail





How is it that so many smart people came to believe things that aren’t true? Krugman, Stiglitz, Friedman, Summers, Bernanke, Yellen – all seem to have a simpleton’s view of how the world works. They believe they can manipulate the future and make it better. Not just for themselves… but also for everyone else. Where did such a silly idea come from?

 
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U.S. Economy 2016: 3 Classic Recession Signals Are Flashing Red





Those that were hoping for an “economic renaissance” in the United States got some more bad news this week.  It turns out that the U.S. economy is in significantly worse shape than the experts were projecting.  Retail sales unexpectedly declined in March, total business sales have fallen again, and the inventory to sales ratio has hit the highest level since the last financial crisis.  When you add these three classic recession signals to the 19 troubling numbers about the U.S. economy that we wrote about last week, it paints a very disturbing picture.

 
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About That "Surge" In The Baltic Dry Index





Some 'entertainers' among the mainstream media have proclaimed the recent dead-cat-bounce in The Baltic Dry Freight Index as representative of some renaissance in China and thus the world's trade.. and thus why one should "buy buy buy" stocks. However, three quick points of note suggest this is nothing but noise as the index flounders around record lows.

 
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Why Manufacturing Matters





It’s not the more fickle and systemic nature of the FIRE economy that makes manufacturing particularly important. It goes well beyond that...

 
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Why One Economist Doesn't Believe The March Jobs Number





Despite a lackluster holiday sales season and massive big box store closures, despite major 1Q hiring companies like Home Depot reporting flat hiring plans, the BLS model reports 181K payrolls added in 1Q 2016. To put that into context:Best 1Q ever; Better than the entire annual Retail payroll growth for 2014; 2/3s the level of 2015

 
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In New Video, North Korea Threatens To "Slap" America With Giant Nuclear Strike On Lincoln Memorial





"The United States must choose! It’s up to you whether the nation called the United States exists on this planet or not.”

 
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