Renaissance

U.S. Economy 2016: 3 Classic Recession Signals Are Flashing Red

Those that were hoping for an “economic renaissance” in the United States got some more bad news this week.  It turns out that the U.S. economy is in significantly worse shape than the experts were projecting.  Retail sales unexpectedly declined in March, total business sales have fallen again, and the inventory to sales ratio has hit the highest level since the last financial crisis.  When you add these three classic recession signals to the 19 troubling numbers about the U.S. economy that we wrote about last week, it paints a very disturbing picture.

About That "Surge" In The Baltic Dry Index

Some 'entertainers' among the mainstream media have proclaimed the recent dead-cat-bounce in The Baltic Dry Freight Index as representative of some renaissance in China and thus the world's trade.. and thus why one should "buy buy buy" stocks. However, three quick points of note suggest this is nothing but noise as the index flounders around record lows.

Why Manufacturing Matters

It’s not the more fickle and systemic nature of the FIRE economy that makes manufacturing particularly important. It goes well beyond that...

Why One Economist Doesn't Believe The March Jobs Number

Despite a lackluster holiday sales season and massive big box store closures, despite major 1Q hiring companies like Home Depot reporting flat hiring plans, the BLS model reports 181K payrolls added in 1Q 2016. To put that into context:Best 1Q ever; Better than the entire annual Retail payroll growth for 2014; 2/3s the level of 2015

The Lego Movie Economy

After the February jobs report, President Obama said “America’s pretty darn great right now.”  He then went on to disparage the “doomsday rhetoric” of the Republicans, which he said was pure “fantasy. I think that there is a good chance that this will enter the Hall of Fame of miss-timed statements, right up there with this jewel from Ben Bernanke in March 2007:  “At this juncture, however, the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the sub-prime market seems likely to be contained.”

Energy Wars Of Attrition - The Irony Of Oil Abundance

In the end, the oil attrition wars may lead us not into a future of North American triumphalism, nor even to a more modest Saudi version of the same, but into a strange new world in which an unlimited capacity to produce oil meets an increasingly crippled capitalist system without the capacity to absorb it. Think of it this way: in the conflagration of the take-no-prisoners war the Saudis let loose, a centuries-old world based on oil may be ending in both a glut and a hollowing out on an increasingly overheated planet. A war of attrition indeed.

Chesapeake Founder Aubrey McClendon Dies In Car Crash One Day After Federal Indictment

Just one day after the DOJ unveiled its had indicted Chesapeake Founder and former CEO Aubrey McClendon on federal charges of conspiring to rig bids for oil and natural gas leases, moments ago the Oklahoma Police announced that he was found dead in a car accident, when while traveling in a 2013 Chevy Tahoe at a high rate of speed he crashed while driving on a two-lane highway and was engulfed in flames.

"Democracy Is Overrated" Doug Casey's Top 5 Reasons Not To Vote

Although democracy is just one way to structure a state, the concept has reached cult status; unassailable as political dogma. It is, as economist Joseph Schumpeter observed, "a surrogate faith for intellectuals deprived of religion." Most of the founders of America were more concerned with liberty than democracy. Tocqueville saw democracy and liberty as almost polar opposites.

Should Recessions Be Feared & Avoided?

There is no reason to fear recessions or to intervene in them. They represent a healing process. Only by liquidating the malinvestments of the boom and rearranging the economy’s structure of production as quickly as possible to the actual wishes of consumers can a sound recovery be achieved. "Thus, what the government should do, according to the Misesian analysis of the depression, is absolutely nothing. It should, from the point of view of economic health maintain a strict hands off, 'laissez-faire' policy. Anything it does will delay and obstruct the adjustment process of the market."