American Axle

Frontrunning: January 26

  • Alexis Tsipras: the Syriza leader about to take charge in Greece (Guardian)
  • Tsipras to form anti-bailout Greek government after big victory (Reuters)
  • Tsipras Forges Anti-Austerity Coalition in EU Challenge (BBG)
  • East Coast braces, flights canceled as 'historic' blizzard bears down (Reuters)
  • Rebels press Ukraine offensive, Obama promises steps against Russian-backed 'aggression (Reuters)
  • Syriza Victory Brings Hope for Immigrants of EU Access (BBG)
  • For Saudis, Falling Demand for Oil Is the Biggest Concern (BBG)
  • Oil prices fall on market relief over Saudi policy (Reuters)

Frontrunning: November 19

  • Yellen Inherits Greenspan’s Conundrum as Long Rates Sink (BBG)
  • West African Mining Projects Take Hit From Ebola Crisis (WSJ)
  • Saudi oil policy uncertainty unleashes the conspiracy theorists (Reuters)
  • Senate Rejection of Keystone XL Measure Sets Up 2015 Showdown (BBG)
  • Ferguson, Missouri, remains on edge ahead of grand jury report (Reuters)
  • Putin Said to Stun Advisers by Backing Corruption Crackdown (BBG)
  • Italian ‘Invasion’ Has Swiss Fuming as Immigration Vote Looms (BBG)
  • Apple and Others Encrypt Phones, Fueling Government Standoff (WSJ)

Frontrunning: October 21

  • Total CEO de Margerie killed in Moscow as jet hits snow plough (Reuters)
  • China GDP Growth Rate Is Slowest in Five Years (WSJ)
  • Oil at $80 a Barrel Muffles Forecasts for U.S. Shale Boom (BBG)
  • Carney Faces Scrutiny on Worst Payments Outage Since 2007 (BBG)
  • Ebola crisis turns a corner as U.S. issues new treatment protocols (Reuters)
  • Gold Buying Rebounds in India on Diwali Jewelry Sales (BBG)
  • China-backed hackers may have infiltrated Apple's iCloud (Reuters)
  • Greece Said to Seek Recycling of Bank Funds for Exit (BBG)

Frontrunning: August 14

  • Police fire tear gas, stun grenades at Missouri protesters (Reuters)
  • Putin’s Pipeline Bypassing Ukraine at Risk Amid Conflict (BBG)
  • Russia's Largest Oil Company Seeks $42 billion to Weather Sanctions (WSJ)
  • Shells hit central Donetsk, Russian aid convoy heads towards border (Reuters)
  • U.S. Tightens Sanctions, Putting More Russian Companies at Risk (BBG)
  • How to Blindly Score 43% Profit Overnight in China Stocks (BBG)
  • Tears guaranteed: San Diego Pension Dials Up the Risk to Combat a Shortfall (WSJ)
  • Euro Recovery Halts as Germany Shrinks, France Stagnates (BBG)
  • Billionaire Found in Middle of Bribery Case Avoids U.S. Probe (BBG)
  • Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama 'Hug It Out' on Martha's Vineyard (WSJ)

Frontrunning: July 22

  • EU Works to Punish Russia as MH17 Bodies Leave Rebel Area (BBG)
  • Bodies From Malaysia Airlines Flight Begin Long Trip to Netherlands (WSJ)
  • Israel pounds Gaza as Kerry arrives (Reuters)
  • U.S. judge dismisses Republican lawsuit over Obamacare subsidy for Congress (Reuters)
  • Israel Soldier Missing Amid Assault on Hamas in Gaza (WSJ)
  • Detroit Retirees Vote in Favor of Pension Cuts (WSJ)
  • Russia Axes 1st Bond Sale in 3 Months as Ukraine Drives Up Yield  (BBG)
  • Wall Street Cut From Guest List for Jackson Hole Fed Meeting (BBG)
  • Credit Suisse to Exit Commodities, Posts Big Quarter Loss (BBG)
  • Draghi Cedes Euro Control to Yellen on Fed Rate Wagers (BBG)

Frontrunning: December 5

  • LA port workers to return Wednesday (AP)
  • Iran says extracts data from U.S. spy drone (Reuters)
  • Obama to stress need to raise debt limit "without drama" (Reuters)
  • Big Lots Chief Probed by SEC (WSJ)
  • NATO missiles to be sent to Turkey, Syria clashes rage (Reuters)
  • GOP Deficit Plan Irks Conservatives (WSJ)
  • Japan Can End Deflation in Months, Shirakawa Professor Says (BBG) ... almost as good as Bernanke ending inflation in 15 minutes.
  • Osborne Prepares to Breach Fiscal Rules Amid U.K. Growth Slump (BBG)
  • Global Banking Under Siege as Regulators Guard National Interest (BBG)
  • Freeport plans return to energy (FT)
  • Serbian NATO envoy jumps to death at Brussels airport (Reuters)
  • Tide Turns After a Flood of Chinese Listings (WSJ)
  • Australian economy loses steam (FT)
  • Euro Crisis Feeds Corruption as Greece Slides in Rankings (BBG)

Frontrunning: November 20

  • More QE could distort rather than deliver (FT)
  • Soros Buying Gold as Record Prices Seen on Stimulus (BBG)
  • EU Leaders Face Greek Aid Gap in Brinkmanship With IMF (BBG)
  • Weak data point to bigger economic drag from Sandy (Reuters)
  • Shirakawa Pushes Back With Criticism of Abe Unlimited Easing (BBG) But... but... Bernanke??
  • French Downgrade Widens Gulf With Germany as Talks Loom (BBG)
  • Japanese Poll Shows LDP Advantage Ahead of Election (WSJ)
  • BOJ in the Balance as Next Government Picks Top Posts (BBG)
  • Exchanges Get Closer Inspection (WSJ)
  • Greece edges closer to €44bn bailout (FT)
  • Japan Government to Spend 1 Trillion Yen on Next Stimulus (BBG)
  • China’s Richest Woman Divorces Husband, Fortune Declines (BBG)

Frontrunning: October 3

  • No Joy on Wall Street as Biggest Banks Earn $63 Billion (Bloomberg)
  • And more good news: IMF’s Blanchard Says Crisis Will Last a Decade (Reuters)
  • Hobbit Returns to Find Middle Earth Has Become Expensive (Bloomberg)
  • Freddie's Foreclosure Plan Hits Roadblock (WSJ)
  • Who will buy the FT? Pearson CEO Scardino Will Step Down as Fallon Takes Over (BBG)
  • Jeremy Lin Said to Be in Talks With Harvard on Licensing Deal (Bloomberg)
  • Jon Weil tears apart the NYAG "prosecution" - Eric Schneiderman Will Have to Do Better Than This (BBG)
  • Portugal Offers to Exchange Bonds as It Seeks Debt Market Access (Bloomberg)
  • Is unlimited growth a thing of the past? (FT-Martin Wolf)
  • European Bank Capital Results Overtaken by Tougher Global Rules (Bloomberg)
  • China’s Slowdown Reverberates as ADB Cuts Forecasts (Bloomberg)
  • Tokyo has no plan to extend currency swap deal with Seoul (Reuters)

Daily Highlights: 12.8.09

  • Asian shares were mostly lower Tuesday with bank stocks weighing on some markets.
  • Bernanke reaffirmed plans to keep interest rates near zero for "an extended period".
  • Bernanke sees 'formidable headwinds' for economy on tight credit, job woes.
  • China’s stocks fell for the first time in three days, led by raw-material producers.
  • Consumers shed debt for the ninth month in October, but at a slower rate.
  • Dubai stocks tumble most in world on Nakheel debt restructuring concerns.

Daily Highlights: 11.5.09

  • Asian stocks fall as South Korea fuels growth concern.
  • China shares rise for 5th day to 12-week high, extending gains on recovery hopes.
  • Congress giving homebuyers a $6,500 tax break.
  • Fed signals return to growth alone doesn't warrant interest-rate increase.
  • Oil prices slipped below $80 a barrel Thursday in Asia as the U.S. dollar strengthened.
  • US, EU ask WTO to probe Chinese export curbs on 'critical' raw materials.

Daily Highlights: 11.4.09

  • Asian stocks rise for first day in three on profit optimism; Toyota gains.
  • Bank of Ireland wrote off euro1.8 billion ($2.7 billion) in bad loans in its first half.
  • Baker Hughes's Sept. net income fell from $429M last year to $55M this year.
  • Comcast's Sept. net income rises from $771M last year to $944M this year.
  • Devon Energy's Sept. net income declines from $2.6B last year to $499M this year.
  • Crown Castle Intl reported a slightly narrower Q3 loss, but the loss was greater than expected.

Egan-Jones November Industry Review

The most perplexing issue in assessing credit quality for various industries over the next six to eighteen months is determining what is real, what is sustainable. As illustrated in the below graph, the monetary base has exploded over the past couple of years - a manifestation of the FED's effort to pump liquidity into the system to support the financial sector and prop up the broader economy. Other "props" are the step yield curve, FDIC backing for the bonds of the few and chosen, and the continued direct support of the particularly important (politically) and particularly wounded such as GMAC. Will we exit the matrix and if so, when? The short answer is that we will probably exit when we are able. Despite the massive cost of the bailout, the US has the will, and China and the multitude of other buyers of US Treasuries have the means, to continue to support the bailout. However, change is coming; some of it would come even without the great recession. The massive drivers of economic change in the US over the past 40 years, the baby boomers, are changing their ways and will not be making the expenditures they have previously. Forget the regular upgrading of housing (the more likely step is a reduction in housing needs), forget the three year upgrade of vehicles (most will last six years or more), and forget most other huge purchases. Rebuilding savings is likely to be the new norm for many baby boomers, and the other generations are not making enough yet to fill the void. A translation for fixed income investors is that the anointed financial service firms will thrive over the next couple of years as will most money managers. However, the consumer-based, capital intensive industries such as auto, home building, and retailing will lag, especially as the various stimulus programs wear off.

Weekly Credit Summary: September 11

Spreads tightened significantly from last Friday's close with HY massively outperforming IG as equities reversed their short-term losses to storm over 2.5% higher (close-to-close). This rally in risky assets was accompanied by a major drop in the dollar which shifted gold and oil higher and somewhat confusingly a rally in Treasuries - a flight to safety and risk. HY closed within 10% of its spread tights for the week while IG was more than 20% off its tights, but skews were cruished in IG and HVOL this week (especially the latter).

August Credit Summary - Early Warnings

Credit markets were notably weak in August with HY underperforming IG, low beta deterioration, more curve inversion, and financials weaker, and all in the face of the continued rally in stocks. In the past we have seen credit anticipate and equity confirm - certainly credit markets are off their Utopian levels while stocks maintain them.