New Home Sales

"Hillary Rally" Fizzles As DB Hits New Record Low; Volkswagen Slammed; Oil Slides On Iran Statement

A rally in global risk that started during last night's first presidential debate on the market's take that Hillary came out on top fizzled, following news that the DOJ is assessing how big a criminal fine it can extract from Volkswagen (-3.8%) over emissions-cheating "without putting the German carmaker out of business", while Iran's oil minister Zanganeh told reporters Iran is ununwilling to freeze output at current levels. Deutsche Bank dropped to a new all time low while its default risk hit fresh record highs.

New Home Sales Tumble As Prices Hit 2-Year Lows

Following July's exuberant spike, August saw new home sales tumbled 7.6% MoM (better than expected 8.3% drop) catching down to Existing and Pending Home Sales (and Housing Starts) plunge. Perhaps more problematic, the median new home price slipped to $284k, its lowest since September 2014. Probably a good time to hike interest rates...

Key Events In The Coming Extremely Busy Week

The week ahead is striking in the sheer number of central bank speakers, but with the Fed on hold until December and the BoJ’s new framework now revealed, focus turns squarely from central banks to US politics. The first US presidential debate at the start of the week will be a key focus.

Global Stocks Tumble, US Futures Slide On Deutsche Bank Fears, Central Bank And Commodity Concerns

While today's biggest event for both markets and politics will be tonight's highly anticipated first presidential debate between Trump and Hillary, markets are waking up to some early turmoil in both Asia and Europe, with declines in banks and energy producers dragging down stock-markets around the world, pushing investors to once again seek the safety of government bonds and the yen.

"Home Prices Are Out Of Hand Again"

"Since 1999 year-end through 2015 home prices have risen 76% while household mean real income has grown less than 2%; the millennium-to-date gap between the two growth rates peaked at 84% during 2005-2006 and has risen back to 74% as of 2015 year-end. Gap at year-end 2007 was 75%."

Global Stocks Rise, Metals Jump On Strong Chinese Data; Pound Surges On Record UK Mfg Spike

After a muted end to August, September started off on the strong foot overnight following a surprising beat in China's official manufacturing PMI print, which rose above 50 to the highest level in almost two years. That, together with a record rebound in the UK PMI, bolstered investor confidence, fueling gains in stocks and industrial metals. The dollar advanced against most of its peers while bonds retreated before Friday’s payrolls report.

Existing Home Sales Crush Recovery Narrative, Plunge Most Since Nov 2015

Following yesterday's 7 standard deviation beat in New Home Sales, Existing Home Sales for July missed expectations by 2 standard deviations dropping 1.64% YoY - the first annual decline since Nov 2015. The blame for this collapse - according to NAR's Larry Yun - is "frustratingly low inventory levels."

S&P Set For New Record Highs As Futures, Dollar Rise; Oil Slides

In a rerun of yesterday's overnight session, European indexes trade higher while US index futures were modestly in the green, set to propel the S&P 500 to new all time highs. Emerging Market dropped the most in three weeks alongside commodities, as today the market was predisposed hawkishly on a US rate hike ahead of Yellen's Friday speech, pushing the US dollar higher and oil resumed its pre "anonymous sources" headlines slide.

New Home Sales Soar Most Since 2007 Driven By Southern Sales Surge

While the accuracy of the new home sales data is notorious volatile, with regular revisions wiping out both up and down-side outlier prints, moments ago the Census reported that in July, the US saw a whopping 654K new home sales, up 12.4%, from the prior month and higher by 31% from a year ago, smashing expectations of a 580K print, and a -2% decline from last month's pre-revision print of 592K (since revised lower to 582K).

Stocks Creep Higher As Dollar Resumes Falling, Oil Slides For Second Day

While the summer doldrums continue, with little market-moving newsflow overnight and zombified volumes, US futures crept higher and European shares rose after EU PMIs printed modestly better than expected, while a return to dollar weakness pushed emerging markets higher, even if it failed to boost oil which as we noted last night was downgraded by Goldman on various fundamental reasons.

Jackson Hole Looms: The Main Events In The Coming Week

The key economic releases this week are new home sales on Tuesday and durable goods on Thursday. However, the main event in what is one of the slowest summer weeks, will be the Jackson Hole symposium starting this Friday, where focus will be on Yellen's speech who will be scrutinized to see if she can bring the Fed's message back on track after several conflicting statements by Fed speakers in recent weeks.

US Futures Fall, European Stocks Rise As Stronger Dollar Sends Oil Lower

European stocks rose and US S&P futures fell after the dollar strengthened following the latest hawkish comments from Fed vice-chair Stanley Fischer signalled that a 2016 rate hike is still being considered and again boosted speculation that US rates will rise this year. The rising dollar pressured commodities and notably oil, which dropped 2% breaking a 7 days stretch of increases; emerging markets retreated.