New Home Sales

Homebuilder Confidence Jumps To 10 Year Highs As Lumber Prices, New Home Sales Slump

NAHB Sentiment jumped to 61 - the highest since 2005 - despite weakening new home sales and collapsing lumber prices. Housing Starts also remain tepid (especially compared to 2005 levels) but hope springs eternal for an industry almost 100% reliant on hope. Prospective buyer traffic rose 2 points as Northeast saw a drop as West and South saw modest increases.

"They'll Blame Physical Gold Holders For The Failure Of Monetary Policies" Marc Faber Explains Everything

"The future is unknown and we are not dealing with markets that are free markets anymore...now we have government interventions everywhere. [But] in the last say twelve months, I have observed an increasing number of academics who are questioning monetary policies. That's why I think they will take the gold away and go back to some gold standard by revaluing the gold say from now $1000/oz to say $10,000 dollars. An individual should definitely own some physical gold. The bigger question is where should he store it? because... the failure of monetary policies will not be admitted by the professors that are at central banks, they will then go and blame someone else for it and then an easy target would be to blame it on people that own physical gold because - they can argue - well these are the ones that do take money out of circulation and then the velocity of money goes down - we have to take it away from them... That has happened in 1933 in the US."

Pending Home Sales Plunge Most Since 2013, Holdout Buyers Blamed

Following new home sales disappointment, pending home sales dropped 1.8% in June (missing expectations of a 0.9% rise) for the biggest drop sicne Dec 2013. After 5 months of gains, and with median prices at record highs, it appears affordability is crushing hopes of any sustained 'recovery' once again. Modest gains in the Northeast and West were offset by larger declines in the Midwest and South, but Larry Yun has an explanation, hold-out buyers are waiting for a better entry point (in other words - pent up demand is there). Did Chinese buyers just evaporate?

Global Stocks, US Equity Futures Slide Following China Crash

It all started in China, where as we noted previously, the Shanghai Composite plunged by 8.5% in closing hour, suffering its biggest one day drop since February 2007 and the second biggest in history. The Hang Seng, while spared the worst of the drubbing, was also down 3.1%. There were numerous theories about the risk off catalyst, including fears the PPT was gradually being withdrawn, a decline in industrial profits, as well as an influx in IPOs which drained liquidity from the market. At the same time, Nikkei 225 (-0.95%) and ASX 200 (-0.16%) traded in negative territory underpinned by softness in commodity prices.

There Goes The Housing "Recovery" Again: New Home Sales Plunge Most Since 2014

Despite exuberant existing home sales, new home sales crosses back below the 500k Maginot Line to 482k SAAR - the lowest since Nov 2014. Previous data was revised notably lower as June data missed expectations by the most in a year. The West region saw new home sales collapse 17%. Perhaps the slide in single-family home starts means something after all?

Commodity Clobbering Continues As Amazon Lifts Futures

After yesterday's latest drop in stocks driven by "old economy" companies such as CAT, which sent the Dow Jones back to red for the year and the S&P fractionally unchanged, today has been a glaring example of the "new" vs "old" economy contrast, with futures propped up thanks to strong tech company earnings after the close, chief among which Amazon, which gained $40 billion in after hours trading and has now surpassed Walmart as the largest US retailer. As a result Brent crude is little changed near 2-wk low after disappointing Chinese manufacturing data fueled demand concerns, adding to bearish sentiment in an oversupplied mkt. WTI up ~26c, trimming losses after yday falling to lowest since March 31 to close in bear mkt. Both Brent and WTI are set for 4th consecutive week of declines; this is the longest losing streak for Brent since Jan., for WTI since March.

Futures Levitate After Greek Creditors Repay Themselves; Commodities Tumble To 13 Year Low

Today's action is so far an exact replica of Friday's zero-volume ES overnight levitation higher (even if Europe's derivatives market, the EUREX exchange, did break at the open for good measure leading to a delayed market open just to make sure nobody sells) with the "catalyst" today being the official Greek repayment to both the ECB and the IMF which will use up €6.8 billion of the €7.2 billion bridge loan the EU just handed over Athens so it can immediately repay its creditors. In other words, Greek creditors including the ECB, just repaid themselves once again. One thing which is not "one-time" or "non-recurring" is the total collapse in commodities, which after last night's precious metals flash crash has sent the Bloomberg commodity complex to a 13 year low.

Buy Programs Stumble After Greek Deal Proposal Goes Back To Drawing Board In Last Minute

And it started off all so well: the market, blissfully ignoring what we wrote just yesterday in Why The IMF Will Reject The Latest Greek Proposal In Just Two Numbers, was in full blown levitation mode overnight when it sent Japanese stocks to their highest close since 1996 (pre dot com) and with the Chinese central bank doing its best to keep levitating local stocks away from the abyss, pushing the SHCOMP up another 2.5%. Euro Stoxx 50 went from flat to down 1% and is bouncing. As BBG's Richard Breslow adds, predictably, the market is taking this as a ploy, not an end game. Of course, this is precisely the "Bear Stearns is fine" conventional wisdom that Cramer was spewing days before Bear failed because nobody could fathom how anyone can conceive of a worst case scenario. Only it isn't nobody: we reported before of a Goldman's "Conspiracy Theory" Stunner: A Greek Default Is Precisely What The ECB Wants. 

China Soars 7% Off The Lows, Global Stocks Continue Rising On Ongoing "Greek Deal Optimism"

Before taking a look at Europe, an update on China. Just a few short hours ago, when looking at the bursting of the Chinese bubble where stocks were down between 3% and 5% across the board in the first post-holiday trading session after the worst week in 7 years, we said that "without assistance (levitation) from the same PBOC that just clamped down on liquidity, the China bubble has burst." And then as if by request, minutes later we got, drumroll, levitation and the stickiest stick-save by the PBOC seen in months, when the Shanghai Composite staged an unprecedented 7% surge from the lows to close 2.2% higher after tumbling as much as 5% earlier in the session. And just like that, faith in the "wealth effect" is preserved.

Frontrunning: June 22

  • Mood brightens after latest Greek offer to creditors (Reuters)
  • ECB's Nowotny - Greek banks have funding extension for today (Reuters)
  • Any Greece deal must match party manifesto, minister says (Reuters)
  • Greece says now up to lenders to move on an agreement (Reuters)
  • Greece sends wrong documents to monitors... Again (FT)
  • U.S. won't let Russia 'drag us back to the past': Pentagon chief (Reuters)
  • Belgium unblocks part of Russian diplomatic missions’ frozen accounts (Tass)
  • Fed Scoop Heralded Era of Closed Doors for $100,000 Newsletters (BBG)

Stocks Soar, Germany's Dax Set For Biggest Gain In Three Years On Greek Deal "Optimism"

today is Friday taken to the nth degree, with the markets having already declared if not victory then the death of all Greek "contagion" leverage, following news that a new Greek proposal was sent yesterday (which as we summarized does not include any of the demanded by the Troika pension cuts), ignoring news that Greece had again sent Belgium the wrong proposal which the market has taken as a sign of capitulation by Tsipras, and as a result futures are surging higher by nearly 1%, the German DAX is up a whopping 3.1%, on track for the biggest one day gain in three years, Greek stocks up over 8%, German and US Treasurys sliding while Greek and peripheral bonds are surging.